I Love VR.
High Res Helmets are increasingly available
DCS F-16 will likely make Falcon 4 obsolete to the vast majority (although the few die hards wont openly admit it)
R.I.P. Mr Blankenship, my dear old friend.
R.I.P. Falcon 4
A while back, E.D. ran a poll on their forums, and the top item desired by their participating customers was a Dynamic Campaign. Until such time as E.D. delivers an effective D.C., I suspect you will find more than a "few die hards" will maintain a higher loyalty to BMS / Falcon 4. Especially when one factors in the people who are disenchanted with E.D.'s module completion rate, etc.
No doubt, E.D. will sell plenty of copies of the F-16 module. In and of itself, that doesn't mean that all of those folks who were previously BMS users are going to abandon BMS. Some will, I imagine... but to project that out to the BMS / F4 community as a whole? That seems to me to be too much of a stretch as things currently stand.