Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/28/1903:42 PM
I've been watching hurricanes for a long time and I've seen the National Hurricane Center be too conservative in their intensity forecasts more than once. Perhaps they're basing their Cat 2 estimate on serious interaction with Puerto Rico's mountainous areas. But from the current track it appears that it might just skirt PR's far eastern coast and not become disorganized for a while. Or maybe the NHC is basing that estimate on increased wind shear and/or influx of dry air on its way to Central Florida. That doesn't appear too likely either and with Caribbean waters being pretty warm at this time of year my best guess is that Hurricane Dorian will hit Central Florida as a strong Cat 3 or worse.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1912:18 PM
Originally Posted by Nixer
With many peoples property and possibly lives at risk, uneducated speculation is counterproductive IMO.
Agree, and I also think it bad form to put a personal opinion in the title like it was a news announcement. Missleading and sensationalist - but that's Haggart as we know him?
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1912:38 PM
Originally Posted by rwatson
Dig in P.M. !! And hang on
Unless the current track turns out to be wildly incorrect, my area will at most get lots of rain and that's it. The current track has the hurricane heading straight for the Orlando area. Thanks anyway!
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1901:08 PM
As i said my guess would be a strong Cat 3 ......the NHC this morning has the intensity forecast to 125 mph sustained winds at landfall. It is still too soon to know with great certainty what area of Florida landfall will be.
Cat 3 (major) 111-129 mph
update: Aug 29, 10:05 am ..... as i said ..... "my best guess is that Hurricane Dorian will hit Central Florida as a strong Cat 3 or worse"
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1903:09 PM
We are watching this closely as we have a trip planned to Tampa this weekend. I don't fancy the thought of flying my family into a hurricane zone, especially with our 17 month old son.
I'm hoping United will cancel the flights and we get a no fee refund.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1903:14 PM
Originally Posted by bones
We are watching this closely as we have a trip planned to Tampa this weekend. I don't fancy the thought of flying my family into a hurricane zone, especially with our 17 month old son.
I'm hoping United will cancel the flights and we get a no fee refund.
v6, boNes
United certainly should and as a long time member of their United mileage program i would expect them to . Did you by chance purchase trip interruption insurance ?
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1904:20 PM
I’have a planned vacation starting Saturday. We are flying out of KBKV first thing in the morning. Plane is all ready and the aviation forecasting shows a window of adequate weather Saturday morning and worsening as the day goes on. However the track and strength are making my wife consider staying home to keep an eye on the house.
As it stands we are flying to Asheville, NC then touring around western NC, Tennessee, Kentucky. Then fly on to Virginia Beach to see family. Then fly down the coast to Amelia Island to see more family then home. This 12 days and about 1,500 nautical miles of flying and several airfields.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1904:29 PM
A King Tide is a non-scientific term people often use to describe exceptionally high tides. Tides are long-period waves that roll around the planet as the ocean is "pulled" back and forth by the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun as these bodies interact with the Earth in their monthly and yearly orbits. Higher than normal tides typically occur during a new or full moon and when the Moon is at its perigee, or during specific seasons around the country.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1909:43 PM
I was thinking the same as Haggart yesterday. This looks like a nasty one. Finally checked in Community Hall and glad to see this here.
Hope all of you guys living in Florida remain safe and that I am worrying needlessly about my sister. She may be visiting kids on opposing sides of the country, on a cruise, (a favorite activity for her) or out of the country. But her normal haunts are closer to Orlando.
Guess it's time to stay in closer touch with sister rather than just considering her as an issued item by parents, eh?
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/29/1910:56 PM
Unbelievably, with this storm on the way and us getting ready for it.....my air conditioning just went out! Looks like the capacitor! Can't believe it!
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/30/1912:54 PM
I think by Saturday evening we will know pretty well where the storm will be heading to before it hits land but either way I'm well prepared. I've lived in FL since I was 4 so I know the drill.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/30/1902:31 PM
Originally Posted by rwatson
Yep PM but I'm still an old New England Yankee..Love a couple feet of snow..once you accept you ain't going out it's easy
The climate isn't the main reason why so many people are coming to Florida. It's essentially hot job market + no state income tax. That's a killer combo for bringing in people.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/30/1902:46 PM
A good article mikew and even the NHC acknowledges the uncertainties which may always remain. No doubt Hurricane forecasting has saved a lot of lives and property over the decades and the evolution of the models have played a huge role in that. Regardless if one model is preferred over another for the various reasons I'm sure that evolution continues. Thanks for posting.
Here is one point from the hurricane discussion this morning worth noting for those of you in Florida if you haven't seen this yet:
5: am ......."After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
11:00 am ...... NHC ......"the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula"
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/30/1902:55 PM
I understand that PM but I'm retired so don't need a job and don't pay income tax and couldn't take the skeeters the size of B-17's and when I visited the mother in law worrying about what the thing was that made noises under her modular home foundation and an occasional gator roaming up from the park pond,,She lived in Ft.Pierce
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/30/1903:27 PM
Good on you PM Just saw a golfer concentrating on his shot and a gator passed by he didn't notice the gator and the gator paid no mind to him..Around here all we have id coons,,woodchucks and deer as my puppy lets me know around 3 am when they are in the yard,,So I take her out and let her raise hell and chase them off ..Lost mt last pup when he went ballistic and I got up and went to the bathroom an he blew through the window screen and the lattice on the deck...Cops found him later nailed by a car But got a mini pincer a couple days later Small but mighty.It ain't the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog...She will tear your ankles up if you mess with me
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/31/1901:15 PM
I was moved by a sight I had on the way in to work today. A convoy of 15-20 Powerline/Phone trucks, all headed to Florida. My understanding is that over 100 local Oncor (Power) workers have already left to Florida to assist in any repairs.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/31/1902:38 PM
that's a good reason too to start a post about a Hurricane so Panzer will see the post at SimHQ and know it's coming toward Florida as i suspect that Panzer might be playing a Sim on his computer and might not realize a storm is coming
11:00 am .... max sustained winds at time of sample 150 mph. Moving west at 8 mph. "Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye of about 15 n mi in diameter"
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 08/31/1909:16 PM
And the wife and I had a very nice flight to Asheville. Only glitch was that my planned stop/fuel airfield (KVDI) had low cloud ceiling and I had to land at another field (KBHC). No problem. Just a minor deviation from my plan. Bathroom break for both of us, self-serve fuel, and back in the air. Then easy straight flight to KAVL. Less than 4 hours. Tomorrow tour the Baltimore Estate.
Wife is relieved that the changed path of the storm means no problem for our house or her sister. She was a little conflicted about going on the trip.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/01/1901:50 PM
well let's hope that model is wrong !
9:30 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 Location: 26.5°N 76.6°W (ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA) Moving: W at 8 mph Min pressure: 922 mb Max sustained: 175 mph
...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/01/1902:02 PM
The models NHC are basing their track on had it turning towards the north hours ago.
Still heading due west like a monster with a one track mind. Last minute evacuations from Florida and 10's of thousands of people will be caught by a possible Cat 5 Hurricane in their freakin cars! Now THAT is a nightmare scenario.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/01/1902:08 PM
Originally Posted by Nixer
The models NHC are basing their track on had it turning towards the north hours ago.
Still heading due west like a monster with a one track mind. Last minute evacuations from Florida and 10's of thousands of people will be caught by a possible Cat 5 Hurricane in their freakin cars! Now THAT is a nightmare scenario.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/02/1903:00 AM
493 WTNT65 KNHC 020152 TCUAT5
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1000 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN BEGINNING TO CROSS EASTERN GRAND BAHAMA...
This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of Dorian remains over the northern portion of the island. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama are experiencing the western portion of the eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the remainder of Grand Bahama Island tonight.
Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 220 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves
These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours.
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/02/1903:05 AM
Originally Posted by Haggart
493 WTNT65 KNHC 020152 TCUAT5
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1000 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN BEGINNING TO CROSS EASTERN GRAND BAHAMA...
This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of Dorian remains over the northern portion of the island. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama are experiencing the western portion of the eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the remainder of Grand Bahama Island tonight.
Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 220 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves
These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours.
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/02/1911:56 AM
Considering that the islands of the Bahamas are mostly just about 49-66ft average height, a 18-23ft surge might already devastate significant parts, let alone the winds and rain. And considering that it moves very slow (down to ~1kn I just read somewhere), it must be hell there. And it looks like it is going to crawl all along the island… <nosuitableemojisthatwouldproperlyexpressthefearsandwishes>
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/02/1912:40 PM
Originally Posted by WhoCares
Considering that the islands of the Bahamas are mostly just about 49-66ft average height, a 18-23ft surge might already devastate significant parts, let alone the winds and rain. And considering that it moves very slow (down to ~1kn I just read somewhere), it must be hell there. And it looks like it is going to crawl all along the island… <nosuitableemojisthatwouldproperlyexpressthefearsandwishes>
the rise in sea levels as well as the overall warming of the Oceans most likely will make wide swaths of those Islands inhabitable - who will want to live in an area that gets catastrophic flooding every year.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/02/1912:51 PM
The slow moving speed and terrible strength of the winds are just scouring those poor islands. Grand Bahama Island is going to be a wreck. Killing wind and flooding.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/02/1901:07 PM
A Cat 5 Hurricane that only moves 1 mph
SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION from NHC, Sept 2, 2019 ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES
at that pace ....... "The center of the storm will move off the island by mid-afternoon"
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/03/1902:02 AM
I've been through two, already, since being here in in Orlando and I was in Miami during Andrew. That was a friggin beauty, #%&*$#! 30,000 dollars worth of damage to my house and property. House down the block had the top floor ripped off! Huge tree fell on a nieghbors Lexus and crushed it like a toy! Homestead, south of us, was practically wiped off the map. It was like a war zone, with Army units and helicoptors heading south every day. I don't ever want to be through one that bad again, EVER!
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/03/1902:10 AM
Grew up in Ohio, lived a long time in south Florida, now in North Carolina.
If you have to go through one or another, I prefer tornadoes to hurricanes (and been through both). You get minutes notice before a tornado hits. With hurricanes, you get days to stress out.
Feel sorry for the folks in the Bahamas. They got kicked bad.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/03/1904:28 AM
We missed Cyclone Tracey in '74, Dad flew us all to Nan and Pops in Sydney. Lost the house, Dad wasn't taking any chances luckily. A bunch after that when we moved back to Darwin when it was being rebuilt but they were only mild compared.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/03/1910:14 AM
I live in Sarasota, we've had a little rain, nothing really heavy and we put the shutters up yesterday as a precaution because if it doesn't turn it's directly east of us, last year the storm passed just North of us and we had trees down everywhere. We are surrounded by 30' pine trees so ..better safe than sorry.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/03/1911:50 AM
Originally Posted by Ajay
How many hurricanes have you been through Nixer?
Hmmmm...
I am not sure. The first I remember is Donna in the 60's, maybe 5 more in Florida and maybe the same amount of Tropical Storms.
In Louisiana I evacuated twice, rode out Katrina in a boat and went thru maybe 4 or 5 more hurricanes (2 of them in boats) and the same number of Tropical storms.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/03/1906:23 PM
We had the remnants of Hurricane Hazel hit here in 1954. Did some damage here but Toronto and area got quite a bit of damage. http://hurricanehazel.ca/
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/03/1911:04 PM
I’ve lived in Florida since I was 4 (1976) and I didn’t really get to experience what a hurricane was like until Andrew in 1992. Even then, I only lost power for a couple of days and the apartment building I was living in at the time suffered no damage.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 - 09/06/1906:32 PM
Just looked at the latest track for Dorian and this thing just won't run out of gas! It's projected to pass near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland before it heads back out into the open Atlantic.
![[Linked Image]](https://simhq.com/forum/files/18144.jpg)
![[Linked Image]](https://www.thewrap.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/GettyImages-1160116341-2.jpg)
![[Linked Image]](https://simhq.com/forum/files/18191.jpg)
![[Linked Image]](https://simhq.com/forum/files/18192.jpg)
