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#4609724 - 09/27/22 04:49 PM Hurricane Ian  
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oldgrognard Offline
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Lifer

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Thought to open its own thread.

Couple members are in Florida.

Me, CyBerkut, Nixer, Panzer. There are at least two others. I’m closest to the projected landfall. If it goes in as projected, I will be on the north eye wall. I have boarded up my house, filled the cars with gas, gotten a bit more water and propane, got more batteries for flashlights, moved all the patio furniture into the house, etc.

Very conflicting info on expected wind speed.the tv is saying 90 plus for my area, but my aviation weather says under 50. My thoughts are that the aviation is going to be more correct and that the tv numbers are hyped. Storm surge shouldn’t affect me even though I’m very near the coast.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
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#4609725 - 09/27/22 04:52 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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RossUK Online cowboy
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Good luck. Is it standard to prepare like you have and are there people that are ignorant to it? We rarely have that sort of weather. Are your home's built with things built in to help?

#4609726 - 09/27/22 04:56 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Mr_Blastman Offline
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Stay safe everyone in Florida! We'll get the leftovers in Georgia.

#4609728 - 09/27/22 05:23 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Looks like KRT_Bong is going to be in the worst of it. Pretty much in the eye of it.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4609729 - 09/27/22 05:38 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Wigean Online content
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I have a forecast here that says 35kts and 15 inches of rain in your area on thursday.

I hope you guys manage with no damages.

#4609731 - 09/27/22 05:40 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Haggart Offline
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Hitting as a Cat 1 or less (hopefully) and not a 4 ...... thank the good Lord for small favors !


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4609732 - 09/27/22 05:41 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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ebud Offline
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Originally Posted by oldgrognard
Thought to open its own thread.

Couple members are in Florida.

... If it goes in as projected, I will be on the north eye wall...


We are over here east side of Orlando and hoping for the best...good luck all! Gonna be an interesting couple of days.

#4609733 - 09/27/22 05:43 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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NoFlyBoy Offline
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I will pray to God for all of you. Hope you got extra batteries for your cell phones.

#4609734 - 09/27/22 05:54 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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For my area the NOAA is predicting tropical storm conditions. In other words I have nothing to worry about. I just hope the Tampa Bay area doesn’t get hit as hard as is being predicted.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4609739 - 09/27/22 06:20 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: Wigean]  
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Originally Posted by Wigean
I have a forecast here that says 35kts and 15 inches of rain in your area on thursday.

I hope you guys manage with no damages.




Which area are you referring to ?


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4609740 - 09/27/22 06:29 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Haggart Offline
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It now appears that it could hit Sarasota County coastline as a Cat 3 before moving north.


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4609741 - 09/27/22 06:37 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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#4609752 - 09/27/22 08:53 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Nixer Offline
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Excellent article here: Eye on the Storm

Detailed but not so technical I can't get the main points. Interesting thoughts on Storm Surge, at least to me as I never have had to deal with it coming in from the back side of a storm. The cold front that is turning this beast easterly seems to have stopped moving southward and is sitting still just north of me. Looking a numerous radars this thing 30 minutes ago was stretching from west of Havana, Cuba to over 50 miles offshore of Cape Canaveral.

Predicting 10" to 15" of rain in my area, heck in everybody's but Panzer's area. Staying at my place tonight and maybe till after the rain if we only get tropical storm winds. Tonight I am going to waterproof my art supplies stash that I have been accumulating for the past few years with extra college funds. Good watercolors, brushes and especially the excellent imported paper has doubled in price in the last couple of years, even tripled in a couple cases.

Waiting on the 1700 update now. My old butt is worn out, been at it since 0630. Beer time.


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#4609753 - 09/27/22 09:10 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Haggart Offline
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The Lone Star State
NHC ..... "The new forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus.
I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane
or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and
destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely"


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4609760 - 09/27/22 10:41 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Nixer Offline
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It is indeed a LARGE hurricane. Ian is doing a couple of things that vex me a bit.

Firstly, it may be the most "lopsided" hurricane I have ever seen, or at least recall. Most hurricanes are "heavy" in the east side compare to the west, this one just seems extra lopsided. Hurricanes are always more violent east of the eye and have more rain, wind and especially storm surge. This is why I was very happy when CyBer informed me it was now predicted to pass EAST of us, putting us west of the eye.

Here's what I mean about lopsided as of now as I type this. This is Key West Radar

Notice how little activity there is in the NW, W, and especially the SW quadrants.

Now click the other FL radars, if you are interested. Melbourne especially shows how far into the Atlantic this beast extends. Just seems extra lopsided to me, and being on the predicted west side of the eye, that makes me less nervous about this.

Now secondly, the cold front over north central FL, which according to the MyRadar pro app, has been sitting right on top of my head for the last three hours. I don't usually plug apps but if you live in hurricane zones its a huge winner. The app is free and the hurricane addon was a few bucks one time cost. Anyway it is so weird for me to watch the northern rain bands of Ian literally bouncing off that front while moving east to west. Storm front associated with northern hemisphere cold fronts always move west to east (clockwise), EXCEPT hurricanes moving counter clockwise. I have never seen a cold front, and it's associated wind shear acting like a barrier. I just which it would get off my house and head a little further south!

Ok, I'll shut up now. yep

edit: The radar stuff I linked was as of 1830 Tues 27 Sep. If you are looking at it tomorrow it may be completely different. Oh and you can't see the cold front I am talking about unless you have the MyRadar app.

re-edit: at 1845 the MyRadar folks changed that front on my head from a cold front to an occluded front, a stationary front. How that affects the wind shear and turning I don't know.

Last edited by Nixer; 09/27/22 10:47 PM. Reason: New info

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#4609761 - 09/27/22 10:57 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Lifer

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There has been a slow but steady drift to the south and landfall is now a good bit south of Tampa. Good news for me, Cyber and Nixer. Not so good for Sarasota, Naples, and Venice. That is the sad thing about these; good news for some means bad news for others. There are no winners unless it stays out to sea and dissipates before any landfall.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4609762 - 09/27/22 11:07 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: RossUK]  
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Lifer

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Originally Posted by RossUK
Good luck. Is it standard to prepare like you have and are there people that are ignorant to it? We rarely have that sort of weather. Are your home's built with things built in to help?



Level of prep varies. I would say that I do more than average. There are only a couple houses in our development that have boarded. I am the only on one on my block. But it is easy for me. I have the studs permanently in my walls and have room in my hangar for the plywood sheets. Mine are pre-cut and drilled, so in about 40 minutes I have them up. Helps that I have them clearly labeled so I know where they go and which way to hang them.

A few others have installed generators (some very nice whole house automatic ones) so they can have power for about 5 days with their underground tanks, or the stand-by generators that run on either gasoline or propane. Nice, but I haven’t done that.

A very few houses were built with hurricane shutters that roll down over the windows. Very nice, but very expensive.

Fortunately building codes have improved requiring better construction and materials that help hold-up against storms. That has been improving for the last 25 years of construction. But there is the majority built before better code requirements. And then there are the trailer parks and RV sites. They generally just disappear when hit. Those are the people who go to the established government shelters as it approaches.

So there are several different ways to approach the issue. Sadly many (maybe most) do nothing. Don’t even lay in food and water. Or batteries. They are the ones who scream loudest for emergency government assistance.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4609763 - 09/27/22 11:54 PM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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NoFlyBoy Offline
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Looking at this https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/161142.shtml?cone#contents in last 5 hours, looks like its turning more NE

#4609764 - 09/28/22 12:29 AM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Nixer Offline
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More from the educated, and also smart guys at Eye on the Storm. An update:

"Hurricane warnings were extended southward along Florida’s southern Gulf Coast late Tuesday afternoon, encompassing the Naples area and Marco Island, as category 3 Hurricane Ian steadily intensified. An eastward jog in Ian’s track on Tuesday has resulted in some major shifts in where and when Ian could make landfall. Regardless of its landfall point, Ian will bring destructive hurricane impacts to large parts of Florida, including torrential rains and flooding, dangerous storm surge, and high winds."

Good Info

These two guys have been my go to guys for hurricane info for almost twenty years. They were originally a team at Weather Underground, which was bought out by Big Blue. They moved to that new place. Smart guys.

The main guy Jeff Masters, had a near death experience on a hurricane hunter and said...Nahhhh


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Look for me on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook or Tic Toc...or anywhere you may frequent, besides SimHq, on the Global Scam Net. Aka, the internet.
I am not there, never have been or ever will be, but the fruitless search may be more gratifying then the "content" you might otherwise be exposed to.

"There's a sucker born every minute."
Phineas Taylor Barnum

#4609765 - 09/28/22 01:14 AM Re: Hurricane Ian [Re: oldgrognard]  
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NoFlyBoy Offline
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This is crazy scary. It wants to take entire Florida out.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/220203.shtml?rainqpf#contents

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