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#4601196 - 06/06/22 10:15 PM What if D-Day had failed?  
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Not to take away from the June 6th thread, but I was curious about what some might think if the invasion had failed.

The immediate result would be the postponement of another Allied invasion of France for another year, or longer. Although it is doubtful that Germany would ultimately win, the war probably would have lasted until 1946 with the Soviets in charge of all of Germany, Austria, northern Italy, and possibly all of Europe. It is also unlikely that Dwight D. Eisenhower would have ever been elected President of the United States.

Here are some sites that discuss a few other possible scenarios:

What if d-day had failed:
https://www.history.co.uk/article/what-if-d-day-had-failed

What if Operation Neptune (D-Day) Had Failed:
https://medium.com/lessons-from-history/what-if-operation-neptune-aka-d-day-had-failed-25c9125dae90

D-Day 75: How close did D-Day come to failure?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/teach/how-close-did-d-day-come-to-failure/zkmd382#:~:text=What%20if%20D-Day%20had%20failed%3F%201%20Prof.%20Gary,historian.%20...%204%20Gen.%20Sir%20Richard%20Dannatt.%20


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#4601198 - 06/06/22 10:22 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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The Soviet steam roller in the East was already unstoppable by June 1944. A failure at Normandy would have meant a Germany entirely occupied by the USSR. The post war era would have turned out VERY differently.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4601203 - 06/06/22 10:59 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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Originally Posted by BuckeyeBob
D-Day 75: How close did D-Day come to failure?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/teach/how-close-did-d-day-come-to-failure/zkmd382#:~:text=What%20if%20D-Day%20had%20failed%3F%201%20Prof.%20Gary,historian.%20...%204%20Gen.%20Sir%20Richard%20Dannatt.%20
Quote
Prof. Gary Sheffield, military historian

“Had D-Day failed, it would have been particularly costly for Britain. They were already running out of manpower, particularly the Army. I think failure would have given a huge boost to the ‘bomber barons’, like Arthur Harris, who were arguing that strategic air attacks on German cities could bring the country to its knees.

I wonder why the 'bomber barons' thought that they could win the war. Did they feel that the Luftwaffe was able to do the same to Britain? Having survived the Blitz, Britain should have known the best how difficult it would be to strangle an enemy through aerial bombardment. The Germans could not do it to Britain, why would Britain think they could do it to Germany?


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#4601205 - 06/06/22 11:51 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: Herman]  
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Originally Posted by Herman
I wonder why the 'bomber barons' thought that they could win the war. Did they feel that the Luftwaffe was able to do the same to Britain? Having survived the Blitz, Britain should have known the best how difficult it would be to strangle an enemy through aerial bombardment. The Germans could not do it to Britain, why would Britain think they could do it to Germany?


Because the US/UK bomber force was an order of magnitude greater than Germany ever had.


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#4601206 - 06/07/22 12:34 AM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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It's been mentioned that the whole of Germany would have been completely taken over by the U.S.S.R. if D-Day had failed. I have always wondered what would have happened to France if the U.S. would have been unable to establish control of it in 1944-45? Would the Soviet steamroller just stopped at their border, or would they have decided to take Paris too?

Last edited by LB4LB; 06/07/22 12:35 AM.
#4601213 - 06/07/22 03:19 AM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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I don't think the Allies could have defeated the Germans with strategic bombing alone. England didn't give up during the Blitz, German production actually increased during the Allied bombing campaign until the very end of the war when they were being pressed on all fronts, and North Vietnam did not give up under the American bombing campaign. As long as Hitler was alive, I don't think Germany would have quit because of a few bombs--unless the Americans dropped the atomic bomb on Stuttgart, Hamburg, or Munich, and that probably would have required the Russians to give their permission, which is unlikely. I don't think the Russians would have taken over France, but they would likely take all of Germany and Austria all the way to the Rhine. No doubt the cold war would have been very different.

Another interesting question is what would have happened in the Pacific. If an Allied invasion of Europe was no longer on the table, would the Allies have redoubled their efforts against Japan? If so, maybe the Russians never invade Japanese Mongolia or the northern Japanese islands, particularly if they are the only ones fighting the Germans on the western front. Korea might never have been divided, and the Chinese communists might not have been able to take over China.



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#4601216 - 06/07/22 08:50 AM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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I don't know, apart from the fact that many more millions on both sides would have died or suffered.



#4601223 - 06/07/22 10:38 AM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4


Because the US/UK bomber force was an order of magnitude greater than Germany ever had.



Correct. Plus it can be argued that a considerable portion of the Luftwaffe was tied up defending German cities and manufacturing centers instead of being deployed on the front lines on the Eastern Front and in France.


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#4601229 - 06/07/22 11:41 AM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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Originally Posted by BuckeyeBob
German production actually increased during the Allied bombing campaign....


SOME German production increased. But they were rapidly loosing their fuel production capability, it didn't matter how many tanks/planes they could produce if they couldn't fuel them.


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#4601241 - 06/07/22 04:13 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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i just came back from that timeline, all cars fly in auto pilot and fossil fuel is a thing of the past,beer became humanity basic right. but the food sucks

#4601244 - 06/07/22 04:51 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: Blade_RJ]  
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Originally Posted by Blade_RJ
i just came back from that timeline, all cars fly in auto pilot and fossil fuel is a thing of the past,beer became humanity basic right. but the food sucks



Just watch the "Man in the High Castle" series instead. wink


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4601248 - 06/07/22 05:08 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: PanzerMeyer]  
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Originally Posted by PanzerMeyer
Originally Posted by Blade_RJ
i just came back from that timeline, all cars fly in auto pilot and fossil fuel is a thing of the past,beer became humanity basic right. but the food sucks



Just watch the "Man in the High Castle" series instead. wink


"Man in the High Castle" would have been so much better without the "inter-dimensional" travel mumbo jumbo.


"In the vast library of socialist books, there’s not a single volume on how to create wealth, only how to take and “redistribute” it.” - David Horowitz
#4601314 - 06/08/22 01:20 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4
Originally Posted by BuckeyeBob
German production actually increased during the Allied bombing campaign....


SOME German production increased. But they were rapidly loosing their fuel production capability, it didn't matter how many tanks/planes they could produce if they couldn't fuel them.


German production increased, because before Speer took over, not all industry was geared up and adapted to weapon and materiel production, some even still producing consumer goods, unlike the Allies industries, whose total output turned to military production.



#4601315 - 06/08/22 01:24 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BD-123]  
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Originally Posted by BD-123


German production increased, because before Speer took over, not all industry was geared up and adapted to weapon and materiel production, some even still producing consumer goods, unlike the Allies industries, whose total output turned to military production.


A very valid point indeed. In retrospect it seems quite absurd that Germany didn't switch to a total wartime economy until early 1943 but by then it was way too late.


Here is the quite infamous "Totaler Krieg" speech by Goebbels at the Berlin Sportpalast:



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#4601320 - 06/08/22 02:44 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: PanzerMeyer]  
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Originally Posted by PanzerMeyer

A very valid point indeed. In retrospect it seems quite absurd that Germany didn't switch to a total wartime economy until early 1943 but by then it was way too late.


The possibility they might not win finally reared its head by 1943. Until then, the Nazi regime was living in a fantasy world: "We are ze master race, none can defeat us!" That and everyone was feeding Hitler lies on how the fronts were really progressing, for the fear of being shot, relocated or stripped of rank and power.

Thank God for that.


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#4601322 - 06/08/22 02:50 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: ArgonV]  
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Originally Posted by ArgonV


The possibility they might not win finally reared its head by 1943. Until then, the Nazi regime was living in a fantasy world: "We are ze master race, none can defeat us!" That and everyone was feeding Hitler lies on how the fronts were really progressing, for the fear of being shot, relocated or stripped of rank and power.


Indeed. It's also no coincidence that the "Total War" speech was held just a couple of weeks after the surrender of the German 6th Army in Stalingrad.

Last edited by PanzerMeyer; 06/08/22 05:13 PM.

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#4601334 - 06/08/22 05:07 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BD-123]  
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Good point. The Germans also did not put women to work to nearly anything to the same extent as the Allies did. They relied on imported slave labor for that.


“With Major Lawrence, mercy is a passion. With me it is merely good manners. You may judge which motive is the more reliable.”
#4601428 - 06/09/22 03:25 PM Re: What if D-Day had failed? [Re: BuckeyeBob]  
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Toward the original question, as has been said, it didn't need a successful invasion in France to end the Nazi rule, but the post-war political landscape in Europe would have been very different. It would have taken the Russians a little longer, long enough that the first nuke might have dropped on Germany, which would prevent Russia to get too greedy, like towards France and such.
The allies might have put more focus on the southern front in Italy, so they might make it to Austria or France before the Russians take everything.

As for Russians commitment against Japan, Stalin promised in Jalta or Casaplanca, that Russia would pick up the fight 3 month after the german surrentder - and so they did 8th May => 9. August. With them longer engaged in Germany, they might be too late, assuming the americans would spread the atomic love between both enemies. Which might reduce pickings and influence in the region afterwards, but not sure whether iit would really change much...

Last edited by WhoCares; 06/09/22 03:27 PM.

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