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#4533699 - 08/15/20 02:20 AM Re: Covid 19 * [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Herman Online content
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4
Originally Posted by Herman
Only practical solution within society's current means and capabilities.

What you propose is NOT within current means and capabilities. We CANNOT build thousands of labs across the country in a time span which would make those facilities available to have ANY effect on the current situation. It's like saying we are going to build a rope factory to make a rope to throw to a man who is drowning right now. It's simply ridiculous to think it's possible.

We most certainly do have the physical capability of constructing buildings, the machinery, and equipment, too. If one lab can be built, so can another, and another. These things already exist and there is plenty of time for more as this virus will be with us for years to come.

Six months have been squandered with minimal effort towards testing capabilities, except hope and pray for a vaccine. This virus will be with us for a long time. The sooner lab construction and equipment manufacture begins, the sooner the capability will be available. Of course, everyone thinks only of hitting the home run with a vaccine, instead of slowly and more certainly working their way around the bases.


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#4533701 - 08/15/20 02:40 AM Re: Covid 19 [Re: Nimits]  
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Originally Posted by Nimits
Originally Posted by Herman
The only rational plan is to keep slowing the rate of infection so that everything does not collapse simultaneously.

What leads you to think anything is near collapsing as a direct impact from the disease (as distinct from impacts from the mitigation efforts)?

It is true that the mitigation efforts (i.e. lockdown) are causing the collapse more than the disease. The testing plan is meant more to prevent any more silly lock-downs by hopefully keeping limited lockdowns to actual outbreaks and not the entire society. It should also provide more confidence in general, as those who test have a generally better idea if their local environs are relatively safe.

Originally Posted by Nimits
Originally Posted by Herman
I believe that massive testing is the only practical solution. This means testing every single person who ventures out in public every single day. It needs to be as much as our daily shower routine; test before you leave the house. If you are found positive, Don't Go. Contact tracing can initiate immediately. This will be the only measure that gives sufficient confidence to the public for any semblance of normalcy.

Others have addressed how ridiculous this scheme is from a pragmatic implementation perspective.

But you have not explained how this would help anything, either. Those nations and regions with robust contact tracing programs still keep having outbreaks. All the tests developed so far have a high enough false result rate many cases will be missed. The disease would continue spreading; all this would accomplish is to delay the inevitable.

False positives will continue whether or not the testing is widespread. The home kits are not as reliable as lab testing, but they give a first line of detection (that could be confirmed with a lab test.) Multiple tests of different types should reduce the chance of a false positive. The key is to make testing as easy to use as a home pregnancy kit. Originally, pregnancy tests could only be conducted in a lab setting with a rabbit, but it has progressed to home testing within an hour. They also suffer from false positives, which is why some verify with a lab test. Finding out as soon as possible rather than spreading the virus for a week before noticing or getting results will hopefully reduce the infection rate to others.

Originally Posted by Nimits
From a legal and moral perspective, that would be highly unconstitutional, and it would have to be a disease hundreds or thousands of times more deadly before many, if not most Americans would consider consenting to such a regime.

What consent is needed? Make it available and the majority will (hopefully) be smart enough to recognize that it is in their own best interests to voluntarily participate. Everyone wants to know they are safe. There will always be those who refuse, but you can't run society based only on fringe elements.

Originally Posted by Nimits
Given that about 99.5%-99.7% of people survive COVID 19 (a survival rate that is steadily improving, by the way), I am continually surprised that people remained significantly concerned about this disease. Even at this point, for the vast, vast majority of us, catching COVID is no worse than catching a bad cold or the flu. Coupled with the high, high likelihood that herd immunity will be achieved at around ~25% infection rate, we are literally condemning more people to die of this (and ruining our economy and way of life too boot), by telling everyone of all age groups and demographics to socially distance and wear a mask, etc., rather than concentrating protection on the truly vulnerable.

Speaking for myself, my immediate family, and a significant majority of my friends, acquaintances, and coworkers, we are confident enough to return to normal, no masks, no social distancing, no restrictions of any kind, right now, this minute.

I certainly hope that you do not win the lottery and be one of those who catch a bad case of it. I prefer not to tempt fate.

Many soldiers are not afraid of death, but will readily admit to a fear of being maimed or crippled. You seem to have made peace with how you will conduct yourself. As long as you are honest with yourself about how CoVid may manifest, you are an adult and willing to face the consequences of your decision.

Imagine (or actually try) having your wife/child sit on your chest while you breathe and feel how difficult and labourious the effort is for even an hour. Now, imagine trying to do that 24/7 (for what may be the rest of your life) and you begin to know how serious this virus can be, if you catch a bad case of it. If that doesn't scare the living crap out of you, nothing will.


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#4533706 - 08/15/20 12:03 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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160,000 deaths isn't really that significant. In fact, if the news didn't talk about covid 24/7, most of us wouldn't concern ourselves with it.

If you were talking about a virus that kills 20-30% of the population, then perhaps some serious intervention would be needed to save humanity, like what Hermann has suggested.

In fact, most folks are surprised when they see the following data broken down by age:


Most recent CDC stats as of 8/8/2020. Covid deaths by age.

85+ yrs - 47,712
75-84 yrs - 39,348
65-74 yrs - 31,488
55-64 yrs - 18,579
45-54 yrs - 7,721
35-44 yrs - 2,920
25-34 yrs - 1133
15-24 yrs - 242
5-14 yrs - 23
1-4 yrs - 10
Under 1 yrs - 16

94% of these deaths had underlying conditions.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex


Every year we lost over 6000 people age 18-24 to fatal car accidents. Nobody bats an eye.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4533707 - 08/15/20 12:08 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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Good to know you wont be concerned about 9/11 then.

2996 deaths is totally insignificant, and if America didn't make a big deal out of it, there would be no reason to fear, or to I don't know... start wars over it.

#4533708 - 08/15/20 12:13 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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Invalid comparison.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4533709 - 08/15/20 12:16 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted by Lieste
Good to know you wont be concerned about 9/11 then.

2996 deaths is totally insignificant, and if America didn't make a big deal out of it, there would be no reason to fear, or to I don't know... start wars over it.



I can counter this by using the fatal car statistics. Apparently we don't care about the 6000+ deaths to our 18-24 years old? I don't see the news flashing it 24/7, I don't see any drastic measures being taken. I guess we don't care about 911 either then? Your comparison makes no sense.

Why? Because 911 was an attack many things, not just our lives. The biggest threat we felt, was the possibility of "what was next". Nuclear dirty bomb? Anthrax released on our cities? War on our own soil?

The lost lives were the least of our worries.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4533710 - 08/15/20 12:33 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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Ice Cold in Alex or Eating in ...
Our area has a few military training areas, ranges for aircraft, tanks, troops etc.
From a recent deployment here 3 soldiers were tested positive for Covid-19 and are in quarantine, however because our are is one of the less densely populated areas in Belgium those 3 have had a huge impact in our per 100,000 number and put it up to 20 per 100,000 and made our are a red zone.


Chlanna nan con thigibh a so's gheibh sibh feoil
Sons of the hound come here and get flesh
Clan Cameron
#4533771 - 08/16/20 04:54 AM Re: Covid 19 [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Originally Posted by TerribleTwo
160,000 deaths isn't really that significant. In fact, if the news didn't talk about covid 24/7, most of us wouldn't concern ourselves with it.

If you were talking about a virus that kills 20-30% of the population, then perhaps some serious intervention would be needed to save humanity, like what Hermann has suggested.

In fact, most folks are surprised when they see the following data broken down by age:


Most recent CDC stats as of 8/8/2020. Covid deaths by age.

85+ yrs - 47,712
75-84 yrs - 39,348
65-74 yrs - 31,488
55-64 yrs - 18,579
45-54 yrs - 7,721
35-44 yrs - 2,920
25-34 yrs - 1133
15-24 yrs - 242
5-14 yrs - 23
1-4 yrs - 10
Under 1 yrs - 16

94% of these deaths had underlying conditions.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex


Every year we lost over 6000 people age 18-24 to fatal car accidents. Nobody bats an eye.


You don't make any sense, is it possible that the reason that the number of deaths is not higher , is because we took drastic measures to contained the virus

banghead

I don't get it screwy

Marc..


HP-Compaq-8100-Elite-SFF-Intel-Core-i5-660-3-33GHz-8GB-250GB-Windows7, GTX1050 -X45+Rudder Pedals, Playseat Challenge
#4533773 - 08/16/20 06:33 AM Re: Covid 19 [Re: Marc]  
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Nimits Offline
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Originally Posted by Marc



You don't make any sense, is it possible that the reason that the number of deaths is not higher , is because we took drastic measures to contained the virus

banghead

I don't get it screwy

Marc..


So far, the evidence for that case (if what you are suggesting is that mitigation efforts have significantly reduced fatalities over time) is at best inconclusive.

#4533775 - 08/16/20 09:20 AM Re: Covid 19 [Re: Marc]  
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TerribleTwo Offline
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Originally Posted by Marc
Originally Posted by TerribleTwo
160,000 deaths isn't really that significant. In fact, if the news didn't talk about covid 24/7, most of us wouldn't concern ourselves with it.

If you were talking about a virus that kills 20-30% of the population, then perhaps some serious intervention would be needed to save humanity, like what Hermann has suggested.

In fact, most folks are surprised when they see the following data broken down by age:


Most recent CDC stats as of 8/8/2020. Covid deaths by age.

85+ yrs - 47,712
75-84 yrs - 39,348
65-74 yrs - 31,488
55-64 yrs - 18,579
45-54 yrs - 7,721
35-44 yrs - 2,920
25-34 yrs - 1133
15-24 yrs - 242
5-14 yrs - 23
1-4 yrs - 10
Under 1 yrs - 16

94% of these deaths had underlying conditions.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex


Every year we lost over 6000 people age 18-24 to fatal car accidents. Nobody bats an eye.


You don't make any sense, is it possible that the reason that the number of deaths is not higher , is because we took drastic measures to contained the virus

banghead

I don't get it screwy

Marc..



I don't believe measures were all that drastic, especially if you compare them to what has been suggested.

Despite nursing homes being locked down and isolated, nearly 40% of all deaths are from that group. Some states are seeing 70% of deaths from nursing homes.





"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4533780 - 08/16/20 12:10 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: Nimits]  
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Originally Posted by Nimits
Originally Posted by Marc



You don't make any sense, is it possible that the reason that the number of deaths is not higher , is because we took drastic measures to contained the virus

banghead

I don't get it screwy

Marc..


So far, the evidence for that case (if what you are suggesting is that mitigation efforts have significantly reduced fatalities over time) is at best inconclusive.

So the mitigation efforts in the EU were inconclusive?


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#4533797 - 08/16/20 04:09 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KraziKanuK]  
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Originally Posted by KraziKanuK
Originally Posted by Nimits
Originally Posted by Marc



You don't make any sense, is it possible that the reason that the number of deaths is not higher , is because we took drastic measures to contained the virus

banghead

I don't get it screwy

Marc..


So far, the evidence for that case (if what you are suggesting is that mitigation efforts have significantly reduced fatalities over time) is at best inconclusive.

So the mitigation efforts in the EU were inconclusive?


If we look at Sweden, as I mentioned earlier, their mortality has dropped gradually and consistently, by not using any mitigation. Today they are experiencing virtually zero deaths and if we follow the graph, should continue to be zero.

What we don't want is spikes and irregularities, which is what you see with other EU countries that imposed mitigation.

From a mortality perspective, UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy, etc.. are worse off than Sweden.



https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

What we won't ever know is, how would we look today if no mitigation efforts were implemented?

We could very well be on our way to some version of herd immunity.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4533799 - 08/16/20 04:54 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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KraziKanuK Offline
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Sweden did have some restrictions and a population that was compliant with those restriction.

NZ went gung-ho on restrictions and has a mortality rate of 0.45 per 100K population. For Sweden, 56.7 and the USA 50.75.


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#4533800 - 08/16/20 05:17 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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Zamzow Offline
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On the 6000 car deaths 18 to 24 - there's no comparing that to disease deaths as a pretty big percentage of that group brought their deaths upon themselves.

Then again though I guess the same could be said for a lot of COVID deaths in America too.....

#4533801 - 08/16/20 05:22 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Originally Posted by TerribleTwo

If we look at Sweden, as I mentioned earlier, their mortality has dropped gradually and consistently, by not using any mitigation. Today they are experiencing virtually zero deaths and if we follow the graph, should continue to be zero.


Correlation does not equal causation. Just because Sweden is doing nothing and they are not getting sick does not mean that by doing nothing they are doing well. Perhaps there is a genetic factor or other biological trait we have not uncovered or examined among their population that is rendering them less susceptible to the infection.

Quote

What we won't ever know is, how would we look today if no mitigation efforts were implemented?


We would be a human wasteland and hundreds of thousands more Americans may be dead.

Suggesting that we not shut down is reckless. The truth is, had we shut down properly in America for two whole months, a hardcore shutdown, we may not have seen the drastic surge in cases that we have over the summer in America. Our curve may not have skyrocketed like it has, and may be closer to other nations around the world who did observe a proper shutdown, or even to a lesser degree such as the United Kingdom, France or Germany. Instead, we opened too soon and cases soared.

You had your chance. Your method of ignoring the virus was not successful. We have hundreds of thousands of dead Americans now because of folks who insisted that the virus is "a flu" and "nothing to worry about."

And how about those school openings? In Georgia 10% of the Cherokee County school district was infected within a couple of weeks and have already had to close and go back to online learning.

Nobody wants to destroy the economy. Nobody wants to stay shut down for a whole year. What we wanted to do all along is to nip this in the bud before it got out of hand--to curb the climb in cases and cut it off before it grew widespread. We had that chance in March, April and May, but there were inconsiderate folks who felt there was no such thing as sacrifice for one's country, that personal gain and greed was more important than a little bit of couped up misery for a couple of months. Now I would like to see some of these same folks fess up and admit that maybe they were wrong.



Two short months of sacrifice versus many months of bickering about the economy. If we had sacrificed hardcore for two months, maybe most of America would be back to work?

#4533808 - 08/16/20 06:34 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Originally Posted by TerribleTwo

What we won't ever know is, how would we look today if no mitigation efforts were implemented?

We could very well be on our way to some version of herd immunity.


There seems to be nobody disputing that a lot of the US "medical system" is currently stretched near the breaking point over this, so it probably wouldn't be unreasonable to guess some pretty drastic things would have happened - like intentionally leaving a LOT of people to just die (that actually DID occur already with some places).

Good possibility we'd have been having to burn bodies in piles and/or digging mass graves too by now.

Strangely though - if this whole mess were a giant video game and I was trying to do the best thing for the eventual REMAINING humans I'd have had no mitigating actions at all and let the disease openly run it's course, the goal being to (hopefully) just get it over with as fast as possible. If that meant a few billion people dying so be it - we (and the planet itself) could use a few billion less people anyway...

But this is not a video game......

#4533814 - 08/16/20 07:28 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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Finally some SIGNIFICANT good news on this...

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/the-nb...he-us-has-been-hoping-for-183335566.html

This could be the next best thing to an effective vaccine - if you can identify and quarantine (by that I mean self quarantining) the infected in a matter of hours instead of days then depending on the persons job or circumstances you could be preventing anywhere from a handful to hundreds of potential subsequent infections - from just ONE person...

Heck even if for every infection revealed it prevented just THREE subsequent infections that would be significant...

#4533815 - 08/16/20 07:30 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: Zamzow]  
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Nixer Offline
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Living with the Trees
Originally Posted by Zamzow
There seems to be nobody disputing that a lot of the US "medical system" is currently stretched near the breaking point over this...


I am not going back through this whole thread to find them, but some folks here HAVE disputed that, yours truly included.

Florida, we are supposed to be one the "bad" states, with Miami-Dade area being the worse.

Well here's the info straight from the hospitals on ICU capacity and use. Sure, they are busy, how much busier than normal I don't know.

Link

A bunch of agendas at work here, orchestrated by people who could care less about the true welfare of the people.



"There's a sucker born every minute."
Phineas Taylor Barnum

#4533820 - 08/16/20 08:39 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: Nixer]  
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Originally Posted by Nixer
Originally Posted by Zamzow
There seems to be nobody disputing that a lot of the US "medical system" is currently stretched near the breaking point over this...


I am not going back through this whole thread to find them, but some folks here HAVE disputed that, yours truly included.

Florida, we are supposed to be one the "bad" states, with Miami-Dade area being the worse.

Well here's the info straight from the hospitals on ICU capacity and use. Sure, they are busy, how much busier than normal I don't know.

Link

A bunch of agendas at work here, orchestrated by people who could care less about the true welfare of the people.


Dude I said "a lot", not "all". Big difference. I'm sure there are hundreds of hospitals across America that are doing just fine. But there's also a lot facing crazy challenges these days. That is not fake news.

#4533828 - 08/16/20 09:44 PM Re: Covid 19 [Re: KRT_Bong]  
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Sunchaser Offline
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Houston, Tx.
I am beginning to think this whole fiasco is a whole lot of agenda driven fake news.

Any statistics on rioters and looters affected? Maybe they do not get it.

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