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#4516063 - 04/12/20 09:36 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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I think you could safely say that is significant.


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#4516070 - 04/12/20 10:11 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Originally Posted by TerribleTwo
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

Update from the the virology institute in Marseille that began it all (where Dr. Didier Raoult works) has a running counter of how many patients they have treated with HCQ+Azithromycin and how many of those patients have died.

2494 treated, only 10 deaths, all over age 75.

That's 99.6% survival rate.





The data is useless unless it's compared against same number/type of patients who were either (a) left untreated and/or (b) given a placebo and/or (c) given another combo drug therapy. That's why clinical trials take years to complete because it's scientific data that needs to be compared and analyzed.

#4516078 - 04/12/20 10:36 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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I get the uselessness of the data, but that’s for another time and another debate.


I think a better question would be, are there any doctors that have treated 2000 patients, with the typical ventilator and typical drugs, that has achieved a 99.4% survival rate? Where are the doctors, and where is the data? If there are any, that would be quite significant.

But so far, we’ve had numerous examples of doctors using HCQ early and getting much better survival rates.


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#4516083 - 04/12/20 10:46 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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And taking it now, if I had it, is a much better option than waiting for FDA approval.

Just my .02

Also, good news, even if unscientific, is good news. Not much of that going around lately.

The media won't touch cause you know who said it was good.

On another note, have firing squads ever been FDA approved? copter


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#4516090 - 04/12/20 10:59 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Survival rate data is typically used and measured in years (e.g. 5 year or 10 year survival rates) to give a prognosis.

The problem is comparing the same population of patients. Because you need to rule out a lot of other complications like the extremely sick, or underlying co-morbities (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, lung diseases, etc..) which can affect survival rate.

If he were to publish data from other hospitals in different areas of the country using the same treatment, that could show better proof that it works on different populations. But that's just my guess and not necessarily a fact.

The FDA rejects way more medicines that it passes. Only about 30% or less get through the FDA approval process. On top of that, there could be recalls on approved drugs. I agree to treat if the patient is in a life and death situation where it's either treatment and maybe survive or no treatment and definitely die. Otherwise, I'll pass.


Last edited by orbyxP; 04/12/20 11:06 PM.
#4516102 - 04/12/20 11:43 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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The FDA, unfortunately, is compromised by Big Money.

I've been involved in the stock market for quite a while. I read SEC forms and watch clinical trials, and stay abreast on events in the biotech world. So it seems from my POV that promising drugs and therapies from smaller labs and companies are often given the critical eye, moreso than the big drug makers.

So I don't fully trust the FDA because I've seen some shady clinical outcomes. Yes they approve safe drugs, but will often overlook a promising drug from a smaller comp. However, it seems that Trump does have quite a pull using his position to take a cheap, well established drug, into the limelight. I guess I see the perspective from the other side here - which is the "if it works then use it" crowd.


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#4516111 - 04/13/20 12:09 AM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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And I am "prejudiced" by my age (69) and also having pretty bad COPD, overweight...

If I get it, I'd pretty much try anything with over a 25% chance of success.


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#4516289 - 04/14/20 05:18 AM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: orbyxP]  
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Originally Posted by orbyxP
Originally Posted by TerribleTwo
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

Update from the the virology institute in Marseille that began it all (where Dr. Didier Raoult works) has a running counter of how many patients they have treated with HCQ+Azithromycin and how many of those patients have died.

2494 treated, only 10 deaths, all over age 75.

That's 99.6% survival rate.



The data is useless unless it's compared against same number/type of patients who were either (a) left untreated and/or (b) given a placebo and/or (c) given another combo drug therapy. That's why clinical trials take years to complete because it's scientific data that needs to be compared and analyzed.


Useless is too strong a term. I understand the necessity of blind, randomized tests, etc. but at the same time, a hospital that is experiencing a 0.4% reported mortality rate when administering a course of treatment, in a nation that is overall experiencing a 10.8% reported mortality, rate is statistically significant. Maybe you can cite some examples where this did happen (and I am eager to hear if that is so), but I admit as medical layman, I find that idea that placebo effect can explain all or most of the difference between 10 deaths actually experienced and the 250 deaths they "should" have experienced improbable.

#4516338 - 04/14/20 02:44 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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The idea of giving a placebo to a possibly terminally ill patient just irks the heck out of me.

Barbaric?


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#4516360 - 04/14/20 04:30 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: Nixer]  
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Originally Posted by Nixer
The idea of giving a placebo to a possibly terminally ill patient just irks the heck out of me.

Barbaric?



Yeah this is a sensitive issue I guess. But Hydroxy has to be given early, before someone is dying from covid. So the test subject would have a say in it.


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#4516868 - 04/17/20 12:46 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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And the stories just keep mounting since I first started this thread. It is too bad doctors didn't follow Zelenkos protocol earlier. Treat early at the first sign of symptoms. Too many of these failed "studies" treat the patients too late, or use Chloroquine (as in Brazil, more severe symtoms) instead of hydroxychloroquine.

Straight from the head of Oncology department at a province in Italy:

https://time.com/5816874/italy-coronavirus-patients-treating-home/

Over 300 patients, no deaths


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#4516914 - 04/17/20 03:35 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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I guess I'll just use this thread as a means to stay abreast on the latest significant drug news

Remdesivir, an HIV drug from Giliead Sciences, is showing some excellent results.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn.../coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html


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#4517478 - 04/21/20 04:54 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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From the Doc who inspired this thread. Latest update.

https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1252180245760937996?s=20

As a side note NYC just sent their Hydroxy results from 40 hospitals to the FDA and CDC.

Results should be coming soon.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4517491 - 04/21/20 06:18 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Quote
More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study

By MARILYNN MARCHIONE 45 minutes ago

A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.

The study was posted on an online site for researchers and has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine, but has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and the University of Virginia paid for the work.

Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival.

Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.

Researchers did not track side effects, but noted hints that hydroxychloroquine might have damaged other organs. The drug has long been known to have potentially serious side effects, including altering the heartbeat in a way that could lead to sudden death.

#4517492 - 04/21/20 06:39 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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The VA didn't use Zinc?


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#4517497 - 04/21/20 06:47 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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I think the key folks are missing with the Dr. Zelenko results are he gave the combo early in their infection. Not later.

#4517498 - 04/21/20 06:59 PM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: Master]  
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Originally Posted by Master
https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Quote
More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study

By MARILYNN MARCHIONE 45 minutes ago

A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.

The study was posted on an online site for researchers and has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine, but has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and the University of Virginia paid for the work.

Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival.

Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.

Researchers did not track side effects, but noted hints that hydroxychloroquine might have damaged other organs. The drug has long been known to have potentially serious side effects, including altering the heartbeat in a way that could lead to sudden death.



All patients here were treated after hospitalization. Not the candidate for Hydroxy.

Hydroxy proponents continuously stress the importance of Hydroxy treatment at the first signs of symptoms for at risk patients. Every study I've seen that shows no help from Hydroxy, are from patients being treated late.

I've used this analogy before, but Hydroxy seems to be a red light for the virus. You have to stop it before it's too late, Hydroxy doesn't clear the virus and it doesn't repair damage done.


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#4517724 - 04/23/20 08:52 AM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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And in reference to this flawed VA study:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/va-ch...orking-against-covid-19_3322683.html/amp


And in more technical terms;

Quote
HCQ competes with the virus for the binding sites on the beta chains of hemoglobin. The infection is causing red blood cells to lose their iron groups (and oxygen carrying capacity) by dissolving the beta chains, creating caustic iron and hemi molecules which are doing lung damage and triggering the cytokine storm. The problem STARTS in the blood. HCQ is preventative. It's not going to reverse the lung damage from the cytokine storm, or restore the lost blood cells, or repair organs damaged by low blood 02. The new, highly referenced study was designed to fail, as most participants were treated in late stages of progression.


I'm gradually becoming suspicous of these crap "studies" disparaging Hydroxy. Hydroxy is preventative, as other proponents have stated, and just like any anti-viral medication (Tamiflu), meaning it needs to be given early. Every one of these crap studies have started Hydroxy too late, after patients were too sick.

From now on, every time you see a failed Hydroxy study, check to see how late they started treatment.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4518308 - 04/27/20 11:03 AM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Watching South Dakota, the only state (I think) that is conducting a statewide hydroxy trial. They also have no lockdowns in place. And as a cherry on top, one of the prettiest governors around.

As of right now, they have the lowest death rate at only 11, with
2212 cases. They also have a high recovered rate at 1223.

This is in line with what Dr. Zelenko is getting.


Even surrounding states like North Dakota, Montana, and Nebraska are much higher.

I'll only assume Hydroxy is playing a part. No evidence yet.


Also, the SD trial is treating people early. The NIH trial as a comparison, is treating patients who are already hospitalized. The NIH trial will fail... By design? I dunno.


However, the NIH trial is focused on people who are already hospitalized with the disease, while the South Dakota study will initially test the possible preventive use of the drug.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4518312 - 04/27/20 11:31 AM Re: Drug combo working. Covid. Dr Zelenko NYC hospital. [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Of course if you treat 300 patients "before" they get seriously ill you will see a higher average survival rate than if you wait for the 30 who will become serious or critical to present and only treat them. There is no mystery there....

Whether the survival rate is anything other than a wash isn't known though as the way of counting/treating is completely different. Are any of the patients in the test from the group who would have died without this treatment? Most people don't need or receive ICU treatment, most don't even present to hospital for treatment...

The hospital CFR of 10% is the death rate/clearing rate of cases presenting at the hospital... in many regions only serious/critical cases are seen This is not the actual HFR, as it conflates current deaths with current cases, while the real cohort of the dying group is those infected 2-3 weeks prior (a much smaller cohort than current infection).
The overall CFR will not be known until the antibody testing is complete, *and* all the cases resolve to death or recovery. (Korea saw 3/4 to 4/5 of it's deaths after the 'turn' of their new case rate).

What we *know* is that there are many cases in the wild which don't get detected ~ New York data was suggesting around 10-13% infection rate overall (or roughly 10X that detected by antigen testing, in the most heavily tested group)... but that the current death total is *far* from the final figure.

It still seems reasonable that an overall CFR of 0.5% to 1% at might be seen at the end, but with far larger numbers of cases than most expect, and a correspondingly high death toll - as well as weakened health in many of those who recover.


"A treatment protocol" does mean that you can re-test patients and make a declaration that they are recovered (whether that is prone to false negatives/false positives or not)... while other regions may not report presumed recovery as this is a relative unknown in the absence of re-testing.

11 in 1213 is close to 1% CFR - right in line with a high detection rate and infection spread control at the predicted CFR. Uncontrolled spread, undetected cases are a far worse issue (see NY again where over half of novel tests record a new case - because they lost control of spread and are testing the 'core' of each new hotspot... rather than testing the fringes of a very few, and having containment of a sort.

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