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#4504784 - 01/23/20 11:06 PM Cousins might have prevented the First World War  
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I read this and was surprised at how, despite their desires and efforts, events took on a life of their own and dragged two countries to their doom.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...a-1275-11e4-98ee-daea85133bc9_story.html


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
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#4504787 - 01/23/20 11:10 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Or these:

https://www.history.com/news/6-assassination-attempts-on-adolf-hitler

#1 and #2 if successful may have prevented World War 2.

#4504790 - 01/23/20 11:13 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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It would have happened regardless IMO.

#4504794 - 01/23/20 11:36 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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The fact is that we simply don’t know how the chain of events would have occurred had Hitler died in WW 1. There are thousands of different variables that would come into play. In other words, we can’t assume that world history would have followed a more positive trajectory had Hitler died in WW 1.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4504796 - 01/23/20 11:54 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: NoFlyBoy]  
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Originally Posted by NoFlyBoy
Or these:

https://www.history.com/news/6-assassination-attempts-on-adolf-hitler

#1 and #2 if successful may have prevented World War 2.



Not an assassination attempt but there was a group of generals plotting to overthrow Hitler just prior to Munich, as they were convinced the French and British were going to declare war on Germany due to all the demands Hitler was making. But as we all know Chamberlain caved to Hitler yet again and that let the air out of the plot.


“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.” - 2 Chronicles 7:14
#4504803 - 01/24/20 12:39 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Oh c’mon guys. Did we have to jump immediately to Hitler ?

The drift into WW 1 is a study on how a war can get beyond rational control. Every time I read about how treaties, entanglements, mobilization time schedules, fleet competition, etc combined to lead to the war ; I find myself coming to the conclusion that The Great War happened because everyone just wanted it to happen.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4504804 - 01/24/20 12:54 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4
Originally Posted by NoFlyBoy
Or these:

https://www.history.com/news/6-assassination-attempts-on-adolf-hitler

#1 and #2 if successful may have prevented World War 2.



Not an assassination attempt but there was a group of generals plotting to overthrow Hitler just prior to Munich, as they were convinced the French and British were going to declare war on Germany due to all the demands Hitler was making. But as we all know Chamberlain caved to Hitler yet again and that let the air out of the plot.

The UK was in no position to go to war at that time.


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#4504809 - 01/24/20 03:01 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Originally Posted by oldgrognard
The drift into WW 1 is a study on how a war can get beyond rational control. Every time I read about how treaties, entanglements, mobilization time schedules, fleet competition, etc combined to lead to the war ; I find myself coming to the conclusion that The Great War happened because everyone just wanted it to happen.

Agreed, OG. Or as Capt. Blackadder so succinctly put it, "It was just too much effort not to have a war." He summed up treaties and entanglements also: "In order to prevent war in Europe two super blocs developed, the British, French and Russians on one side, and Germany and Austria-Hungary on the other. That way each side would act as a deterrent to the other, and there could never be a war. However, there was one small problem with the plan. It was bollocks."

Although I've always liked Baldrick's notion that, "Some bloke named Archie Duke shot an ostrich because he was hungry", too.

Seriously, and back to your original topic, I've read that Wilhelm, Nicholas and King George of England all being cousins played an unwitting role, as many people believed that relationship would preclude their countries declaring war on each other. Reading the article, I can't help but wonder if the "diplomatic solution" each one sought was, in fact, two entirely different solutions, neither of which would be acceptable to the other.


SALUTE TO ALL!
#4504826 - 01/24/20 07:51 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Among other things, the lead-up to WWI demonstrates the escalatory nature of worst case planning in military thinking at the time. Germany and Austria-Hungary found themselves in the strategic situation of a possible two-front war due to their central location in Europe, which they did not expect to win unless they could win quickly on one front and then on the other. Which was the rationale of the Schlieffen Plan, as flawed as it was, but Germany had no better. And that plan required to mobilize as early as possible, to immediately rush through Belgium as fast as possible to bypass much of the French fortifications, which was the only hope to defeating France in the first place. Which, of course, triggered war with the British since Belgium pretended to be neutral (when for all practical matters it wasn't; the French fortification system was extended by similar Belgian fortifications). So, Germany's only hope to prevent defeat was a jump start into war, and it literally took France a miracle to stop the German army at the Somme.
Military planning was considered beyond the realm of politics, so while the Kaiser was nominally the head of state and nothing could be done without his approval, the military machine largely worked on its own and the time tables derived from the necessities of military strategic planning dictated how much time would be left for negotiations. The fundamental mistake that was made which kicked everything off was Germany's sweeping guarantee of alliance to Austria, which gave the Austrian diplomats too much leverage which let them escalate negotiations with the Serbs who were already showing signs of carving in to the initial response from Austria. That destroyed the chance for minimal face saving for Serbia, and thus the avalanche gained momentum and became unstoppable.

That being said, since the plan in all of Europe was bollocks, had it not been this crisis, it probably would have been the next. The way deterrence was set up, it left next to no margin for error. Of course we don't know what crisis would have been next, but since everybody was on a hair trigger, I'm convinced that there would have been a next crisis, and one after that. Sooner or later diplomatic skill would have failed; as it turned out, it failed in August '14 already.

#4504834 - 01/24/20 11:33 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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I read a lot of Orwell, not just the famous ones but the lesser known ones as well. In one of them, written in the mid 1930s, he describes how the feeling in the air is that a large war is definitely coming. Definitely. He describes how political movements and verbal rhetoric just inevitably pointed to some massive showdown with bombers overhead and swathes of land trading owners. He was quite the visionary maybe, but he doesn't describe it in those terms, it was a general feeling among everyone.


"They might look the same, but they don't taste the same."
#4504837 - 01/24/20 11:37 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: KraziKanuK]  
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Originally Posted by KraziKanuK
Originally Posted by F4UDash4
Originally Posted by NoFlyBoy
Or these:

https://www.history.com/news/6-assassination-attempts-on-adolf-hitler

#1 and #2 if successful may have prevented World War 2.



Not an assassination attempt but there was a group of generals plotting to overthrow Hitler just prior to Munich, as they were convinced the French and British were going to declare war on Germany due to all the demands Hitler was making. But as we all know Chamberlain caved to Hitler yet again and that let the air out of the plot.

The UK was in no position to go to war at that time.


Nor was Germany. And those German generals knew it, they were not however aware of Britain and France's precise military state. They assumed that they could defeat Germany at that point. That assumption was all that mattered.


“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.” - 2 Chronicles 7:14
#4504838 - 01/24/20 11:37 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: Ssnake]  
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Originally Posted by Ssnake
since Belgium pretended to be neutral .



Ah so just like the US from 1939-1941!


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4504871 - 01/24/20 02:49 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Originally Posted by oldgrognard
I find myself coming to the conclusion that The Great War happened because everyone just wanted it to happen.


Agreed. Everyone was only too happy to start mobilizing and beating the war drums. Heck, France and Russia started mobilizing before Germany did. And once everybody got started, nobody wanted to be the first to stand down.

#4504873 - 01/24/20 02:54 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: wormfood]  
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Originally Posted by wormfood
Originally Posted by oldgrognard
I find myself coming to the conclusion that The Great War happened because everyone just wanted it to happen.


Agreed. Everyone was only too happy to start mobilizing and beating the war drums. Heck, France and Russia started mobilizing before Germany did. And once everybody got started, nobody wanted to be the first to stand down.


+2


Between the European rivalries to acquire colonies, France's desire for revenge for losing Alsace-Lorraine, Kaiser Wilhelm's bombastic antics and wanting to have a navy on the same level as Britain's and Russia's aspirations to expand at the expense of the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary it can very easily be argued that it's a miracle that war didn't break out earlier than 1914!


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4504893 - 01/24/20 05:48 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: PanzerMeyer]  
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Originally Posted by PanzerMeyer
Originally Posted by wormfood
Originally Posted by oldgrognard
I find myself coming to the conclusion that The Great War happened because everyone just wanted it to happen.


Agreed. Everyone was only too happy to start mobilizing and beating the war drums. Heck, France and Russia started mobilizing before Germany did. And once everybody got started, nobody wanted to be the first to stand down.


+2


Between the European rivalries to acquire colonies, France's desire for revenge for losing Alsace-Lorraine, Kaiser Wilhelm's bombastic antics and wanting to have a navy on the same level as Britain's and Russia's aspirations to expand at the expense of the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary it can very easily be argued that it's a miracle that war didn't break out earlier than 1914!

There were some minor conflicts in the early 1900s that could have escalated.


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#4504894 - 01/24/20 05:57 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4
Originally Posted by KraziKanuK
Originally Posted by F4UDash4
Originally Posted by NoFlyBoy
Or these:

https://www.history.com/news/6-assassination-attempts-on-adolf-hitler

#1 and #2 if successful may have prevented World War 2.



Not an assassination attempt but there was a group of generals plotting to overthrow Hitler just prior to Munich, as they were convinced the French and British were going to declare war on Germany due to all the demands Hitler was making. But as we all know Chamberlain caved to Hitler yet again and that let the air out of the plot.

The UK was in no position to go to war at that time.


Nor was Germany. And those German generals knew it, they were not however aware of Britain and France's precise military state. They assumed that they could defeat Germany at that point. That assumption was all that mattered.

True. Germany didn't think it could get into a major war before, iirc, 1944.

Even when war started in 1939 with the invasion of Poland, the French Army invasion of the Saar was a indication of what would happen in May 1940. Not the individual French soldier but the French Command.


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#4504898 - 01/24/20 07:09 PM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Found this was very illuminating. I wasn’t aware of a good bit of it. Worth the read.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_I


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4504929 - 01/25/20 12:55 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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It seems that World War One simply had to happen. Barbara Tuchman tells about Gavrillo Princip and the assasination in her excellant book, "The Guns of August." Princip was waiting, amongst the crowd with gun in hand, for the Arch Dukes caravan to come down the street. But he waited and waited and it wasn't coming. For a reason that I don't recall, the caravan was detoured. Princip was dejected. Angry and depressed at missing his chance, he walked a few blocks to a cafe and sat outside, drinking his coffee in dispair. Someone shouts, "Here comes the ArchDuke!" Amazingly, the ArchDukes car was detoured down to the same street where Princip was sipping his coffee! The rest, as they say, is history.

Last edited by Pooch; 01/25/20 12:58 AM.

"From our orbital vantage point, we observe an earth without borders, full of peace, beauty and magnificence, and we pray that humanity as a whole can imagine a borderless world as we see it, and strive to live as one in peace."
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#4504935 - 01/25/20 01:56 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: Pooch]  
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Originally Posted by Pooch
For a reason that I don't recall, the caravan was detoured.

It was because one of the other conspirators had thrown a grenade at the car earlier, wasn't it?


SALUTE TO ALL!
#4504940 - 01/25/20 05:20 AM Re: Cousins might have prevented the First World War [Re: oldgrognard]  
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I'm sorry to post this but thought of it immediately

Here's one of my favorite comedians of all times giving his take on it. This was Norm MacDonald's last time on before Letterman called it quits.



Here's the whole monologue if you want to hear it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFjEvl43zYY

Cheers


Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl.
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