Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Rate This Thread
Hop To
Page 2 of 2 1 2
#4491118 - 10/02/19 12:48 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
DBond Offline
Strategerizer
DBond  Offline
Strategerizer
Veteran

Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
NooJoyzee
I think it's true that the Germans could have won the war with Russia, and there are many reasons -- some self-inflicted, some the result of the fortunes and frictions of war -- as to why they did not. I once claimed that the Germans probably would have won if Russia simply had a road network of similar standards to that found in Western Europe at the time. I think, in the end, that logistics was the primary failure that prevented victory, but many more played their part. The Wehrmacht was built to fight to the Dnepr. Once the war was forced beyond this river, the debts started to be repaid and the Germans found their fortunes waning.

The question posed in the OP isn't one of whether it could have been won, but what might have happened had Germany taken Moscow in 1941. Some feel that capturing Moscow would have presented the Germans with no additional difficulties, or even forced capitulation, and I'm not so sure. I think the evidence is in what actually did occur. When the winter counteroffensive struck, the Germans did indeed hold the city of Klin. The Germans were ejected inside a week and sent reeling through the blizzards.

Whether the fall of Moscow would have caused the collapse of the Soviet regime is an interesting question. My view is that it would not have. The reason for this I put down to the Germans' conduct in occupied territory. The brutal policies enacted changed the war on the Soviet side from one of defending the regime to one of defending the motherland, a fact that Stalin exploited to his advantage. Had the Germans pursued a different policy perhaps the war goes very differently from a political point of view.

But back to the question at hand. If we assume everything is the same as historical, and simply add Moscow to the German haul, then you have a situation where Moscow's flanks are each bashed in. Since we know that the Germans were pushed back across the entire region, it seems likely that the Russians would have succeeded in either ejecting the Germans from Moscow, or at the very least encircling the city. Perhaps we assume that Moscow could be held due to inherent advantages in a city this size for the defender. And even that leaves questions, as it would have taken more to hold than Klin which was easily lost. And Moscow would have added another 30 miles minimum to the supply chain which was already stretched to the breaking point, with the nearest railheads still near Smolensk.

But if we assume the Germans both take Moscow and hold it in the face of the counterblow (and the weather), it becomes a besieged city with no hope of relief until spring. In light of what did occur near Moscow in December 1941 I can't see a way the Germans could hope to keep the lines of communication open. Even if they had captured it I see little hope of holding it in the long view. This is what I meant earlier by a "fortified line from Klin, through Moscow to Tula". Without this, Germany had little chance of holding on to Moscow had it been taken in late November in my view.


No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!
Inline advert (2nd and 3rd post)

#4491122 - 10/02/19 01:20 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 121,384
PanzerMeyer Offline
Pro-Consul of Florida
PanzerMeyer  Offline
Pro-Consul of Florida
King Crimson - SimHQ's Top Poster

Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 121,384
Miami, FL USA
Great post DBond!


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4491141 - 10/02/19 03:24 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 24,029
oldgrognard Offline
Administrator
oldgrognard  Offline
Administrator
Lifer

Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 24,029
USA
DBond, you are arguing in support of the events as the counterattack as delivered. You may be correct if the counterattack occurred as delivered. My point is that it would not have delivered as it was.

No Russian airsupport as it occurred. Historical reading show the great impact of the Russian air.
Arrival and deployment of those Siberian divisions would not have been the same. They would have been both delayed and not as concentrated. There would have been major changes in where and how they detrained, formed, and deployed. It would not have been as historical. The historical counterattack couldn’t have happened.

The German Luftwaffe would have given air support from those good quality airfields.
The Germans would have benefitted from buildings in the bad weather
The airfields would have given a small measure of improved supply for the Germans.
The Germans would have had a small measure of improved supplies from those captured at Moscow.


It was very close run in the historical event and I think the scales would have tipped in favor of the Germans. I don’t think the Russian counterattack would have done as well as historical.


I am not projecting beyond that. No projection for the progress of the war afterwards.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4491155 - 10/02/19 04:55 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
DBond Offline
Strategerizer
DBond  Offline
Strategerizer
Veteran

Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
NooJoyzee
Valid points OG, and thanks for your viewpoint. Historical military what-if scenarios are endlessly fun to discuss. For years now I've thought about starting a series of what-if threads here at SimHQ, but I never did as I always suspected that once I did we'd have others who would think of a different interesting what-if and soon we'd be deluged and diluted smile

There is no doubt that Moscow was a vitally important transport, communication and supply hub, and it's loss would have been a hard blow, not only to morale, but to military capability. Of all your points I think the ones regarding concentrating these forces prior to the counteroffensive the most compelling. Without the Moscow hub this is much harder to achieve. In the scenario in the OP however, Moscow is evacuated. And if the Russians do this, they will plan accordingly.

The main weight of the counteroffensive was not due west along the Smolensk-Moscow highway (originating in Moscow), but concentrated on the shoulders. The northern effort was conducted by Konev's Kalinin Front. This is where the Soviets saw the most success. It was so effective in fact that it created a salient all the way to Velikiye Luki and nearly Vitebsk. Would the fall of Moscow have prevented this force from staging in the first place? Perhaps. I think not, but that doesn't mean I am correct. We cannot discount either the cavalry corps which were created at this time. Their mobility in the harshest conditions allowed these formations to outmaneuver the road-bound Germans. The initiative was clearly with the Russians by early December and they could react, with some restrictions, to what the Germans were doing.

I'm not convinced that the airfields in and around Moscow would prove decisive. For supply they would have been useful. But as we saw over and over the fleet of Auntie-Ju's was but a drop in the bucket compared to the needs of panzergruppen and field armies, and would guzzle a fair amount of precious fuel performing this duty, and then only on days with weather fit to fly. And besides, the Ju-52 fleet was committed at Leningrad at the time. I think the atrocious weather would also have limited the effectiveness of any combat aircraft deployed there, if they could turn their engines over. So while possession of these fields would have been a mark in the plus column for the Germans, I wonder how much effect it would have. Of course this is the core of a what-if discussion isn't it?

I see the Germans taking Moscow (or simply walking in after the Russians give it up) as them sticking their necks further in to the noose. The counteroffensive pincers could have been directed more north-south than they were in the event, meeting west of Moscow and trapping the Germans in their own kessel. Beyond this, the Germans would also suddenly be faced with a starving population (those who remained) and an angry, probably armed populace who might take measures to undermine the newly-installed occupation forces. Even under German control, I would imagine it to be a very dangerous place for them to be with their occupation policies perhaps finally coming home to roost.



No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!
#4491161 - 10/02/19 05:34 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,340
Lieste Offline
Senior Member
Lieste  Offline
Senior Member

Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,340
It doesn't matter too much if the capture of the Soviet airfields was a net zero to German operational activities. The *denial* of the airfields to the Soviets is a significant (if maybe only temporary) setback, equivalent to a full-scale German airoffensive against them similar to the opening days of Barbarossa.

Still doesn't make the over-extended German position comfortable, and by succeeding in taking Moscow (especially if the Kiev pocket escaped), this situation may have been more extended with larger forces caught in Kessels than actually occurred.

It may have resulted in only a concentration at Moscow, rather than second Kharkov and the renewed Barvenkovo/Izium offensive, or if the Germans were also concentrating more on the Moscow axis, such a secondary operation may not have run right into the teeth of the planned German spring offensive, and accomplished more of what it promised.

#4491176 - 10/02/19 08:05 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
DBond Offline
Strategerizer
DBond  Offline
Strategerizer
Veteran

Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
NooJoyzee
Good point Lieste, and in most circumstances I'd agree that airfield denial is harmful to the Russian. But if there were one month during the war in the east when air power had the least influence surely it's December of '41? Better to have those airfields than lose them, but I still am unconvinced that it would have a telling effect, for either side. I would expect that the Russians would have found an alternative in short order, and as you say, the effect on them would be only temporary.


No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!
#4491186 - 10/02/19 09:05 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,340
Lieste Offline
Senior Member
Lieste  Offline
Senior Member

Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,340
Not being able to intercept Ju52 flights means that the few German fighter sorties can be Jabo. Stuka can operate when available unescorted. It still gives more operational flexibility while the influence lasts even if no additional sorties can be flown.

However... huge dynamic and chaotic systems like the Eastern front are highly unpredictable. If the winter of '41 had gone more smoothly, it is still no guarantee that the next winter wouldn't have still been disastrous. Despite the difficulties of '41, they were still inadequately prepared for the Raputsitsa in the spring of 42, autumn of '42, and the following spring, and failed to predict the huge Soviet counter-offensive at the Don bend during the winter. Winter clothing and improved lubricants and operational procedures were still lacking... these would have been as deficient or worse, had the '41 offensive been different in minor ways.

#4491206 - 10/02/19 11:55 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 7,444
Mad Max Offline
survivor
Mad Max  Offline
survivor
Hotshot

Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 7,444
NSW, Australia
Again, fellas, don't neglect Leningrad. With Moscow in German hands, Leningrad would have fallen, no question, and the Germans delivered an ice-free port to support the Moscow arnies. Also as OG mentioned, the importance of Moscow as a rail nexus cannot be over-emphasized. Without that I doubt if the Soviets could have even contemplated a counter-attack.

Re the decapitation angle, don't neglect the fact that in October 1941 when Typhoon was in its earlier stages, Moscow was in turmoil, with Party symbols being torn down and the NKVD being ordered into harsh measures to retain control of the streets. Later in Typhoon, only a personal decision of Stalin's to stay in Moscow instead of joining the Kuybyshev evacuation prevented the city being lost.


"You'll never take me alive" said he,
And his ghost may be heard if you pass by that billabong
"Who'll come a Waltzing Matilda with me?"



#4491420 - 10/04/19 01:00 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 24,029
oldgrognard Offline
Administrator
oldgrognard  Offline
Administrator
Lifer

Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 24,029
USA
DBond, I understand the point you are making. It was some validity, but I disagree.

But the best thing is that you are making a reasoned argument. Something that wasn’t done in the original article. And it is that lack of reasonable building of of a case that makes me so dismissive of the article.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4491422 - 10/04/19 01:32 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
DBond Offline
Strategerizer
DBond  Offline
Strategerizer
Veteran

Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
NooJoyzee
Originally Posted by oldgrognard


But the best thing is that you are making a reasoned argument.


Right backatcha OG thumbsup

I agree about the article. Standards are certainly slipping these days aren't they?

Several of you make a compelling case that the fall of Moscow would have made a counteroffensive impossible in the first place. I was thinking about it last night and that argument has merit. I reasoned it might have come down to when Moscow fell. Because by the first of December the counteroffensive forces were already in place. If the argument is that the fall of Moscow would prevent their massing for the attack (which is reasonable), what if it fell after staging was complete? Would the Russians have cancelled it anyway? And where would the forces defending in front of Moscow have gone?


No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!
#4491498 - 10/04/19 11:52 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: DBond]  
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 7,444
Mad Max Offline
survivor
Mad Max  Offline
survivor
Hotshot

Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 7,444
NSW, Australia
"And where would the forces defending in front of Moscow have gone?"

They would have gone into the starvation POW camps and never be heard from again.


"You'll never take me alive" said he,
And his ghost may be heard if you pass by that billabong
"Who'll come a Waltzing Matilda with me?"



#4491542 - 10/05/19 12:35 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
DBond Offline
Strategerizer
DBond  Offline
Strategerizer
Veteran

Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 13,199
NooJoyzee
I was approaching this from the assumptions of the OP, and in that case I doubt they would just walk in to cages.


No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!
#4491545 - 10/05/19 12:44 PM Re: Sadly even historynet.com is becoming trivial [Re: oldgrognard]  
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 121,384
PanzerMeyer Offline
Pro-Consul of Florida
PanzerMeyer  Offline
Pro-Consul of Florida
King Crimson - SimHQ's Top Poster

Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 121,384
Miami, FL USA
Not Barbarossa but here’s the remnants of Army Group Center being marched into Moscow after the German defeat in Operation Bagration in 1944.




“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
Page 2 of 2 1 2

Moderated by  RacerGT 

Quick Search
Recent Articles
Support SimHQ

If you shop on Amazon use this Amazon link to support SimHQ
.
Social


Recent Topics
Carnival Cruise Ship Fire....... Again
by F4UDash4. 03/26/24 05:58 PM
Baltimore Bridge Collapse
by F4UDash4. 03/26/24 05:51 PM
The Oldest WWII Veterans
by F4UDash4. 03/24/24 09:21 PM
They got fired after this.
by Wigean. 03/20/24 08:19 PM
Grown ups joke time
by NoFlyBoy. 03/18/24 10:34 PM
Anyone Heard from Nimits?
by F4UDash4. 03/18/24 10:01 PM
RIP Gemini/Apollo astronaut Tom Stafford
by semmern. 03/18/24 02:14 PM
10 years after 3/8/2014
by NoFlyBoy. 03/17/24 10:25 AM
Copyright 1997-2016, SimHQ Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.6.0