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#4489288 - 09/12/19 10:20 PM Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas  
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Haggart Offline
I Fought Diablo
Haggart  Offline
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WTNT34 KNHC 122045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

If you live in Florida keep an eye on it !


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
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#4489327 - 09/13/19 10:34 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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PanzerMeyer Offline
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PanzerMeyer  Offline
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Miami, FL USA
Originally Posted by Haggart


If you live in Florida keep an eye on it !


Just lots of rain for South Florida. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. No biggie.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4489371 - 09/13/19 04:17 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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FsFOOT Offline
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Originally Posted by https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products


000
WTNT44 KNHC 131455
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Preliminary data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the
disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet and
continues to be characterized by an elongated SW to NE trough of low
pressure. Satellite images however, suggest that the system could
be consolidating a little bit farther to the east within the area of
deep convection. The reconnaissance plane will also check this
region soon. In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt.

The disturbance is embedded within a moderate shear environment, but
this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt
development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system to
become a tropical cyclone later today or Saturday. Global models
develop the system and guidance suggests that the cyclone could even
reach hurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period. By
then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic well southeast
of the coast of the Carolinas.

Due to a lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is highly
uncertain. It appears that there has been little motion during
the past few hours. A weakness in the ridge over the western
Atlantic is forecast to develop and this pattern should steer the
system slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3
days, an eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system
to recurve away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The guidance
has shifted a little to east this morning and consequently the NHC
track forecast was adjusted in that direction. However, the official
forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope. If
the disturbance develops a little more to the east, the track
forecast will probably adjusted to the right later today.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the
northwestern Bahamas later today and Saturday. Significant storm
surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system.
Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of
the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. Depending on the track of the system, heavy rainfall
could reach eastern North Carolina next week.

4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 25.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0000Z 25.8N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/1200Z 26.6N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 28.0N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 29.2N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 31.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 32.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

#4489423 - 09/13/19 09:27 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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Haggart Offline
I Fought Diablo
Haggart  Offline
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The Lone Star State
NHC .... 5pm, 9-13-2019; " the reliable guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach
hurricane intensity in about 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.
By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic waters well
southeast of the coast of the Carolinas"


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4489424 - 09/13/19 09:28 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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oldgrognard Offline
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oldgrognard  Offline
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Lifer

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So the world isn’t going to end.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4489425 - 09/13/19 09:29 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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Posts: 15,568
Haggart Offline
I Fought Diablo
Haggart  Offline
I Fought Diablo
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The Lone Star State
..... that's not entirely true biggrin


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4489444 - 09/13/19 11:02 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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oldgrognard Offline
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oldgrognard  Offline
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Lifer

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USA
I’m sure you will announce something.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4489463 - 09/14/19 01:48 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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Ajay Offline
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Brisbane OZ
Well, it is going to end one day but i think we are all going to miss out on that moment biggrin


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#4489467 - 09/14/19 02:20 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Ajay]  
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cichlidfan Online biggrin
Member
cichlidfan  Online Biggrin
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Woodbridge, VA, USA
Originally Posted by Ajay
Well, it is going to end one day but i think we are all going to miss out on that moment biggrin


I certainly hope so.


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#4489471 - 09/14/19 02:59 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warning for NW Bahamas [Re: Haggart]  
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Haggart Offline
I Fought Diablo
Haggart  Offline
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The Lone Star State
Cyclone 9 is now tropical storm Humberto and will likely become a hurricane


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"

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