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#4487907 - 08/30/19 12:34 AM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Pooch Offline
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Thanks, Old, yeah. And send somebody over to fix my AC, wil ya?


"From our orbital vantage point, we observe an earth without borders, full of peace, beauty and magnificence, and we pray that humanity as a whole can imagine a borderless world as we see it, and strive to live as one in peace."
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#4487911 - 08/30/19 01:48 AM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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piper Offline
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Be prepared and take care Floridians.

#4487912 - 08/30/19 01:50 AM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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oldgrognard Offline
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oldgrognard  Offline
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Lifer

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The correct term is Floridites.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4487929 - 08/30/19 11:09 AM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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rwatson Offline
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Hey PM looks like you are going to get some Head for the high ground Take care M8


Russ
Semper Fi
#4487933 - 08/30/19 12:27 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: rwatson]  
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David Kennard Offline
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Originally Posted by rwatson
Hey PM looks like you are going to get some Head for the high ground Take care M8


That's a problem in Florida, there is no high ground
.
Be Safe Everyone


"I'm a hundred miles away son, ready to strike"

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#4487934 - 08/30/19 12:54 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
Pro-Consul of Florida
PanzerMeyer  Online Centaurian
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Miami, FL USA
I think by Saturday evening we will know pretty well where the storm will be heading to before it hits land but either way I'm well prepared. I've lived in FL since I was 4 so I know the drill. smile


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4487935 - 08/30/19 01:00 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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rwatson Offline
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LOl Kennard that's the truth,,It's like a bowling alley the only high spots are the highway overpasses..but still a nice state


Russ
Semper Fi
#4487936 - 08/30/19 01:01 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: oldgrognard]  
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KraziKanuK Offline
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Originally Posted by oldgrognard
The correct term is Floridites.

Reminds me of Troglodytes.


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#4487938 - 08/30/19 01:04 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: rwatson]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
Pro-Consul of Florida
PanzerMeyer  Online Centaurian
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Miami, FL USA
Originally Posted by rwatson
but still a nice state



It surely must be since people keep moving here in droves.

Check this out:

Florida population

1990 13 million
2000 15.3 million
2010 18.7 million
2018 21.3 million


Florida is now third in population behind California and Texas.

Last edited by PanzerMeyer; 08/30/19 01:05 PM.

“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4487939 - 08/30/19 01:08 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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mikew Offline
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Interesting article on why the predictions for this one aren't very good:
https://arstechnica.com/science/201...rians-track-is-extremely-low/?comments=1

#4487951 - 08/30/19 02:27 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: PanzerMeyer]  
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rwatson Offline
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Quote PM "It surely must be since people keep moving here in droves. "

Yep PM but I'm still an old New England Yankee..Love a couple feet of snow..once you accept you ain't going out it's easy


Russ
Semper Fi
#4487953 - 08/30/19 02:31 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: rwatson]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
Pro-Consul of Florida
PanzerMeyer  Online Centaurian
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Miami, FL USA
Originally Posted by rwatson


Yep PM but I'm still an old New England Yankee..Love a couple feet of snow..once you accept you ain't going out it's easy



The climate isn't the main reason why so many people are coming to Florida. It's essentially hot job market + no state income tax. That's a killer combo for bringing in people.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4487954 - 08/30/19 02:46 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Haggart Offline
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The Lone Star State
A good article mikew and even the NHC acknowledges the uncertainties which may always remain. No doubt Hurricane forecasting has saved a lot of lives and property over the decades and the evolution of the models have played a huge role in that. Regardless if one model is preferred over another for the various reasons I'm sure that evolution continues. Thanks for posting.

Here is one point from the hurricane discussion this morning worth noting for those of you in Florida if you haven't seen this yet:


5: am ......."After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and
Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the
Florida peninsula.
There is more spread among the deterministic
models and their ensemble members during that time, with
disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn
northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the
tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle
did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with
perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The
biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near
Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a
prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge,
and heavy rainfall.


11:00 am ...... NHC ......"the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula"


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4487956 - 08/30/19 02:55 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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rwatson Offline
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I understand that PM but I'm retired so don't need a job and don't pay income tax and couldn't take the skeeters the size of B-17's and when I visited the mother in law worrying about what the thing was that made noises under her modular home foundation and an occasional gator roaming up from the park pond,,She lived in Ft.Pierce


Russ
Semper Fi
#4487958 - 08/30/19 03:01 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
Pro-Consul of Florida
PanzerMeyer  Online Centaurian
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Miami, FL USA
Ok, fair enough rwatson. smile


I live in a heavily urbanized area so no worries about alligators getting me.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4487966 - 08/30/19 03:27 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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rwatson Offline
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Good on you PM Just saw a golfer concentrating on his shot and a gator passed by he didn't notice the gator and the gator paid no mind to him..Around here all we have id coons,,woodchucks and deer as my puppy lets me know around 3 am when they are in the yard,,So I take her out and let her raise hell and chase them off ..Lost mt last pup when he went ballistic and I got up and went to the bathroom an he blew through the window screen and the lattice on the deck...Cops found him later nailed by a car But got a mini pincer a couple days later Small but mighty.It ain't the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog...She will tear your ankles up if you mess with me


Russ
Semper Fi
#4488047 - 08/31/19 01:15 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Bill_Grant Offline
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I was moved by a sight I had on the way in to work today.
A convoy of 15-20 Powerline/Phone trucks, all headed to Florida.
My understanding is that over 100 local Oncor (Power) workers have already left to Florida to assist in any repairs.


~Bill

In my defense, I was left unsupervised...
#4488054 - 08/31/19 02:11 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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rwatson Offline
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Always good to see Americans helping other citizens It's what we are all about


Russ
Semper Fi
#4488055 - 08/31/19 02:38 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Haggart Offline
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that's a good reason too to start a post about a Hurricane so Panzer will see the post at SimHQ and know it's coming toward Florida as i suspect that Panzer might be playing a Sim on his computer and might not realize a storm is coming

11:00 am .... max sustained winds at time of sample 150 mph. Moving west at 8 mph. "Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye
of about 15 n mi in diameter"

Last edited by Haggart; 08/31/19 03:28 PM.

"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4488078 - 08/31/19 07:24 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Nixer Offline
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Living with the Trees
I have been checking in on this webcam since daylight. Was flat calm then, starting to pick up now.

It's on Elbow Cay, in Hopetown, Bahamas. Should be interesting in the AM if it's still working. Dorian is heading almost right at it.

Oops the Cam link:

The missing Link!

Location:

[Linked Image]


Todays 2 PM advisory:

[Linked Image]


Glad I am not there. shower

Attached Files aaaAbaco_NoHopetown.jpg2pm_Sat.jpg
Last edited by Nixer; 08/31/19 07:29 PM. Reason: Invented a new word

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