I've been watching hurricanes for a long time and I've seen the National Hurricane Center be too conservative in their intensity forecasts more than once. Perhaps they're basing their Cat 2 estimate on serious interaction with Puerto Rico's mountainous areas. But from the current track it appears that it might just skirt PR's far eastern coast and not become disorganized for a while. Or maybe the NHC is basing that estimate on increased wind shear and/or influx of dry air on its way to Central Florida. That doesn't appear too likely either and with Caribbean waters being pretty warm at this time of year my best guess is that Hurricane Dorian will hit Central Florida as a strong Cat 3 or worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/27/us/hurricane-dorian-map.html

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/281510.shtml

notice that the NHC updated their intensity forecast a short time ago ..... "Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table"

With many peoples property and possibly lives at risk, uneducated speculation is counterproductive IMO.

Agree, and I also think it bad form to put a personal opinion in the title like it was a news announcement. Missleading and sensationalist - but that's Haggart as we know him?

Dig in P.M. !! And hang on

Unless the current track turns out to be wildly incorrect, my area will at most get lots of rain and that's it. The current track has the hurricane heading straight for the Orlando area. Thanks anyway!

As i said my guess would be a strong Cat 3 ......the NHC this morning has the intensity forecast to 125 mph sustained winds at landfall. It is still too soon to know with great certainty what area of Florida landfall will be.

Cat 3 (major) 111-129 mph

update: Aug 29, 10:05 am ..... as i said ..... "my best guess is that Hurricane Dorian will hit Central Florida as a strong Cat 3 or worse"

NHC Hurricane discussion #21:

72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH

130 mph winds places it as a Cat 4

We are watching this closely as we have a trip planned to Tampa this weekend. I don't fancy the thought of flying my family into a hurricane zone, especially with our 17 month old son.

I'm hoping United will cancel the flights and we get a no fee refund.

v6,
boNes

United certainly should and as a long time member of their United mileage program i would expect them to . Did you by chance purchase trip interruption insurance ?

I would not travel to Tampa for this coming weekend.

Cat 4 now

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...-guard-potential-major-hurricane-strike/

I’have a planned vacation starting Saturday. We are flying out of KBKV first thing in the morning. Plane is all ready and the aviation forecasting shows a window of adequate weather Saturday morning and worsening as the day goes on. However the track and strength are making my wife consider staying home to keep an eye on the house.

As it stands we are flying to Asheville, NC then touring around western NC, Tennessee, Kentucky. Then fly on to Virginia Beach to see family. Then fly down the coast to Amelia Island to see more family then home. This 12 days and about 1,500 nautical miles of flying and several airfields.

Blast the timing of this storm.

my Sister and nephew are vacationing in Florida - I hope they leave today.

A King Tide is a non-scientific term people often use to describe exceptionally high tides. Tides are long-period waves that roll around the planet as the ocean is "pulled" back and forth by the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun as these bodies interact with the Earth in their monthly and yearly orbits. Higher than normal tides typically occur during a new or full moon and when the Moon is at its perigee, or during specific seasons around the country.


https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/kingtide.html

if Hurricane Dorian will be hitting the Florida coast during a time of "King Tides" ..... that will certainly make things more dangerous.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/us/dorian-path-king-tides-florida-trnd/index.html

I was thinking the same as Haggart yesterday. This looks like a nasty one.
Finally checked in Community Hall and glad to see this here.

Hope all of you guys living in Florida remain safe and that I am worrying needlessly about my sister.
She may be visiting kids on opposing sides of the country, on a cruise, (a favorite activity for her) or out of the country.
But her normal haunts are closer to Orlando.

Guess it's time to stay in closer touch with sister rather than just considering her as an issued item by parents, eh?

Unbelievably, with this storm on the way and us getting ready for it.....my air conditioning just went out! Looks like the capacitor! Can't believe it!

But ..... you’re in Texas right ?

No, moved five years ago. Don't know where to change that. I've been near Orlando for the past 5 years.

And I think it's the compressor! That should be 2 or 3 thousand dollars. Geez!

Do you want me to update location to Orlando ?

Thanks, Old, yeah. And send somebody over to fix my AC, wil ya?

Be prepared and take care Floridians.

The correct term is Floridites.

Hey PM looks like you are going to get some Head for the high ground Take care M8

That's a problem in Florida, there is no high ground
.
Be Safe Everyone

I think by Saturday evening we will know pretty well where the storm will be heading to before it hits land but either way I'm well prepared. I've lived in FL since I was 4 so I know the drill.

LOl Kennard that's the truth,,It's like a bowling alley the only high spots are the highway overpasses..but still a nice state

Reminds me of Troglodytes.

It surely must be since people keep moving here in droves.

Check this out:

Florida population

1990 13 million
2000 15.3 million
2010 18.7 million
2018 21.3 million


Florida is now third in population behind California and Texas.

Interesting article on why the predictions for this one aren't very good:
https://arstechnica.com/science/201...rians-track-is-extremely-low/?comments=1

Quote PM "It surely must be since people keep moving here in droves. "

Yep PM but I'm still an old New England Yankee..Love a couple feet of snow..once you accept you ain't going out it's easy

The climate isn't the main reason why so many people are coming to Florida. It's essentially hot job market + no state income tax. That's a killer combo for bringing in people.

A good article mikew and even the NHC acknowledges the uncertainties which may always remain. No doubt Hurricane forecasting has saved a lot of lives and property over the decades and the evolution of the models have played a huge role in that. Regardless if one model is preferred over another for the various reasons I'm sure that evolution continues. Thanks for posting.

Here is one point from the hurricane discussion this morning worth noting for those of you in Florida if you haven't seen this yet:


5: am ......."After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and
Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the
Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic
models and their ensemble members during that time, with
disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn
northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the
tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle
did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with
perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The
biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near
Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a
prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge,
and heavy rainfall.

11:00 am ...... NHC ......"the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula"

I understand that PM but I'm retired so don't need a job and don't pay income tax and couldn't take the skeeters the size of B-17's and when I visited the mother in law worrying about what the thing was that made noises under her modular home foundation and an occasional gator roaming up from the park pond,,She lived in Ft.Pierce

Ok, fair enough rwatson.


I live in a heavily urbanized area so no worries about alligators getting me.

Good on you PM Just saw a golfer concentrating on his shot and a gator passed by he didn't notice the gator and the gator paid no mind to him..Around here all we have id coons,,woodchucks and deer as my puppy lets me know around 3 am when they are in the yard,,So I take her out and let her raise hell and chase them off ..Lost mt last pup when he went ballistic and I got up and went to the bathroom an he blew through the window screen and the lattice on the deck...Cops found him later nailed by a car But got a mini pincer a couple days later Small but mighty.It ain't the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog...She will tear your ankles up if you mess with me

I was moved by a sight I had on the way in to work today.
A convoy of 15-20 Powerline/Phone trucks, all headed to Florida.
My understanding is that over 100 local Oncor (Power) workers have already left to Florida to assist in any repairs.

Always good to see Americans helping other citizens It's what we are all about

that's a good reason too to start a post about a Hurricane so Panzer will see the post at SimHQ and know it's coming toward Florida as i suspect that Panzer might be playing a Sim on his computer and might not realize a storm is coming

11:00 am .... max sustained winds at time of sample 150 mph. Moving west at 8 mph. "Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye
of about 15 n mi in diameter"

I have been checking in on this webcam since daylight. Was flat calm then, starting to pick up now.

It's on Elbow Cay, in Hopetown, Bahamas. Should be interesting in the AM if it's still working. Dorian is heading almost right at it.

Oops the Cam link:

The missing Link!

Location:




Todays 2 PM advisory:




Glad I am not there.

Oh, and Pleeeese don't go posting this cam elsewhere. Don't want it bandwidth killed by sociameditards. Cool, I made a new word!

And the wife and I had a very nice flight to Asheville. Only glitch was that my planned stop/fuel airfield (KVDI) had low cloud ceiling and I had to land at another field (KBHC). No problem. Just a minor deviation from my plan. Bathroom break for both of us, self-serve fuel, and back in the air. Then easy straight flight to KAVL. Less than 4 hours. Tomorrow tour the Baltimore Estate.

Wife is relieved that the changed path of the storm means no problem for our house or her sister. She was a little conflicted about going on the trip.

The Biltmore Estate is quite nice too

Darn autocorrect

Now, now... that's no way to talk about F4!

Almost dead center and about to get hit with eyewall, Watch before it goes..




https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=6RuhYgn41ms&feature=youtu.be


edit: nevermind. Looks like some view seeking sociameditard has posted some loop for views.

The Bahamas are about to get a complete re-make. Florida may get extremely lucky and dodge one big bullet.

I am almost on the WEST coast of FL and I sure don't feel lucky yet.

Take a look at this IBM sponsored and computed newer model.

Link

Yeah..just a model.

Models are what NHC's path is based on.

well let's hope that model is wrong !

9:30 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.5°N 76.6°W (ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA)
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...

The models NHC are basing their track on had it turning towards the north hours ago.

Still heading due west like a monster with a one track mind. Last minute evacuations from Florida and 10's of thousands of people will be caught by a possible Cat 5 Hurricane in their freakin cars! Now THAT is a nightmare scenario.

Geez, I am starting to sound like you Hag.

Here's a functioning , for now, web cam in Freeport, Grand Bahama Island.

The monster approaches....and it IS becoming a monster of epic proportions.

https://unexso.com/?option=com_content&view=article&id=114

Folks on vacation at Disney World, and Trump orders evac of his Mar-a-Lago private club at Palm Beach...

NYT Dorian updates

LOL...Total BS.

Back to reality..and a scary, deadly reality it is.

Link

In a matter of hours, a community is destroyed. The Bahamas have long been a good neighbor and friend.

We need to help these people.

So Trump shows more concern for his employees than Disney does, good.

Sorryw will have to click on the link. Those from Alabama don't exist anymore,

{img]https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.ne...b1803eb50a2000ebc9001da1&oe=5E15040B[/img]

Spent a little time in Georia...

The chicks were weird!

Something about a missing G.....

493
WTNT65 KNHC 020152
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN BEGINNING TO CROSS EASTERN
GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the northern portion of the island. Residents in
eastern Grand Bahama are experiencing the western portion of
the eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over,
as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the remainder of Grand
Bahama Island tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

Considering that the islands of the Bahamas are mostly just about 49-66ft average height, a 18-23ft surge might already devastate significant parts, let alone the winds and rain. And considering that it moves very slow (down to ~1kn I just read somewhere), it must be hell there. And it looks like it is going to crawl all along the island… <nosuitableemojisthatwouldproperlyexpressthefearsandwishes>

I love nature, but sometimes it can be a right b!tch.

I hope you guys all stay save and that there will be a massive relief effort for the Bahamas as soon as possible.

the rise in sea levels as well as the overall warming of the Oceans most likely will make wide swaths of those Islands inhabitable - who will want to live in an area that gets catastrophic flooding every year.

The slow moving speed and terrible strength of the winds are just scouring those poor islands. Grand Bahama Island is going to be a wreck. Killing wind and flooding.

A Cat 5 Hurricane that only moves 1 mph

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION from NHC, Sept 2, 2019
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

at that pace ....... "The center of the storm will move off the island by mid-afternoon"

Lived in FL for eight years and when the sky turns red you start thinking that nature can be wild. Seeing is beliving for sure!

I have already had a rain band from Dorian...

I am on the opposite coast and about 70 miles N of Tampa.

How many hurricanes have you been through Nixer?

I've been through two, already, since being here in in Orlando and I was in Miami during Andrew. That was a friggin beauty, #%&*$#! 30,000 dollars worth of damage to my house and property. House down the block had the top floor ripped off! Huge tree fell on a nieghbors Lexus and crushed it like a toy! Homestead, south of us, was practically wiped off the map. It was like a war zone, with Army units and helicoptors heading south every day. I don't ever want to be through one that bad again, EVER!

Grew up in Ohio, lived a long time in south Florida, now in North Carolina.

If you have to go through one or another, I prefer tornadoes to hurricanes (and been through both).
You get minutes notice before a tornado hits. With hurricanes, you get days to stress out.

Feel sorry for the folks in the Bahamas. They got kicked bad.

We missed Cyclone Tracey in '74, Dad flew us all to Nan and Pops in Sydney. Lost the house, Dad wasn't taking any chances luckily. A bunch after that when we moved back to Darwin when it was being rebuilt but they were only mild compared.

I live in Sarasota, we've had a little rain, nothing really heavy and we put the shutters up yesterday as a precaution because if it doesn't turn it's directly east of us, last year the storm passed just North of us and we had trees down everywhere. We are surrounded by 30' pine trees so ..better safe than sorry.

Hmmmm...

I am not sure. The first I remember is Donna in the 60's, maybe 5 more in Florida and maybe the same amount of Tropical Storms.

In Louisiana I evacuated twice, rode out Katrina in a boat and went thru maybe 4 or 5 more hurricanes (2 of them in boats) and the same number of Tropical storms.

Huricane David in 1979 for me. 50 miles off the Miami coast line. Lived in Bradenton Beach, Miami, and last in Lake Worth, all in the 70´s-80´s.

I used to live on the Texas Coast, about 35 min north of Galveston. Been through too many...

We had the remnants of Hurricane Hazel hit here in 1954. Did some damage here but Toronto and area got quite a bit of damage. http://hurricanehazel.ca/

Abaco Island homes/businesses obliterated

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-us-florida/index.html

early estimates are at least 13,000 homes destroyed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv0...VYVfCTwO1eKI9F-x5FvIhKZae-7nysBHA2M6Oytk

I’ve lived in Florida since I was 4 (1976) and I didn’t really get to experience what a hurricane was like until Andrew in 1992. Even then, I only lost power for a couple of days and the apartment building I was living in at the time suffered no damage.

And this one to add to Jim's.

Pretty sure most of this is Elbow Cay/Hopetown.

That flipped over spud barge says it all to me. HUGE storm surge...and it wasn't even hit by the strongest quadrant (NE) of Dorian!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beXg9egFcAs

Just looked at the latest track for Dorian and this thing just won't run out of gas! It's projected to pass near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland before it heads back out into the open Atlantic.