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#4487751 - 08/28/19 03:42 PM Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3  
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Haggart Offline
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I've been watching hurricanes for a long time and I've seen the National Hurricane Center be too conservative in their intensity forecasts more than once. Perhaps they're basing their Cat 2 estimate on serious interaction with Puerto Rico's mountainous areas. But from the current track it appears that it might just skirt PR's far eastern coast and not become disorganized for a while. Or maybe the NHC is basing that estimate on increased wind shear and/or influx of dry air on its way to Central Florida. That doesn't appear too likely either and with Caribbean waters being pretty warm at this time of year my best guess is that Hurricane Dorian will hit Central Florida as a strong Cat 3 or worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/27/us/hurricane-dorian-map.html

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/281510.shtml

notice that the NHC updated their intensity forecast a short time ago ..... "Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table"


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#4487807 - 08/29/19 11:46 AM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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With many peoples property and possibly lives at risk, uneducated speculation is counterproductive IMO.

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#4487810 - 08/29/19 11:55 AM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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#4487813 - 08/29/19 12:18 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Nixer]  
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Originally Posted by Nixer

With many peoples property and possibly lives at risk, uneducated speculation is counterproductive IMO.


Agree, and I also think it bad form to put a personal opinion in the title like it was a news announcement. Missleading and sensationalist - but that's Haggart as we know him?

#4487816 - 08/29/19 12:23 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Dig in P.M. !! And hang on


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#4487820 - 08/29/19 12:38 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: rwatson]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
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Originally Posted by rwatson
Dig in P.M. !! And hang on



Unless the current track turns out to be wildly incorrect, my area will at most get lots of rain and that's it. The current track has the hurricane heading straight for the Orlando area. Thanks anyway! smile

Last edited by PanzerMeyer; 08/29/19 12:39 PM.

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#4487826 - 08/29/19 01:08 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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As i said my guess would be a strong Cat 3 ......the NHC this morning has the intensity forecast to 125 mph sustained winds at landfall. It is still too soon to know with great certainty what area of Florida landfall will be.

Cat 3 (major) 111-129 mph

update: Aug 29, 10:05 am ..... as i said ..... "my best guess is that Hurricane Dorian will hit Central Florida as a strong Cat 3 or worse"

NHC Hurricane discussion #21:

72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH

130 mph winds places it as a Cat 4




"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4487831 - 08/29/19 03:09 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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We are watching this closely as we have a trip planned to Tampa this weekend. I don't fancy the thought of flying my family into a hurricane zone, especially with our 17 month old son.

I'm hoping United will cancel the flights and we get a no fee refund.

v6,
boNes


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#4487832 - 08/29/19 03:14 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: bones]  
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Originally Posted by bones
We are watching this closely as we have a trip planned to Tampa this weekend. I don't fancy the thought of flying my family into a hurricane zone, especially with our 17 month old son.

I'm hoping United will cancel the flights and we get a no fee refund.

v6,
boNes


United certainly should and as a long time member of their United mileage program i would expect them to . Did you by chance purchase trip interruption insurance ?


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4487833 - 08/29/19 03:19 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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I would not travel to Tampa for this coming weekend.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4487838 - 08/29/19 03:59 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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#4487839 - 08/29/19 04:20 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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I’have a planned vacation starting Saturday. We are flying out of KBKV first thing in the morning. Plane is all ready and the aviation forecasting shows a window of adequate weather Saturday morning and worsening as the day goes on. However the track and strength are making my wife consider staying home to keep an eye on the house.

As it stands we are flying to Asheville, NC then touring around western NC, Tennessee, Kentucky. Then fly on to Virginia Beach to see family. Then fly down the coast to Amelia Island to see more family then home. This 12 days and about 1,500 nautical miles of flying and several airfields.

Blast the timing of this storm.


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#4487841 - 08/29/19 04:26 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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my Sister and nephew are vacationing in Florida - I hope they leave today.

Last edited by Tom_Weiss; 08/29/19 04:30 PM.
#4487842 - 08/29/19 04:29 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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A King Tide is a non-scientific term people often use to describe exceptionally high tides. Tides are long-period waves that roll around the planet as the ocean is "pulled" back and forth by the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun as these bodies interact with the Earth in their monthly and yearly orbits. Higher than normal tides typically occur during a new or full moon and when the Moon is at its perigee, or during specific seasons around the country.


https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/kingtide.html

if Hurricane Dorian will be hitting the Florida coast during a time of "King Tides" ..... that will certainly make things more dangerous.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/us/dorian-path-king-tides-florida-trnd/index.html


"everything lives by a law, a central balance sustains all"
#4487883 - 08/29/19 09:43 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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I was thinking the same as Haggart yesterday. This looks like a nasty one.
Finally checked in Community Hall and glad to see this here.

Hope all of you guys living in Florida remain safe and that I am worrying needlessly about my sister.
She may be visiting kids on opposing sides of the country, on a cruise, (a favorite activity for her) or out of the country.
But her normal haunts are closer to Orlando.

Guess it's time to stay in closer touch with sister rather than just considering her as an issued item by parents, eh?


#4487887 - 08/29/19 10:56 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Unbelievably, with this storm on the way and us getting ready for it.....my air conditioning just went out! Looks like the capacitor! Can't believe it!


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#4487891 - 08/29/19 11:14 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Lifer

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But ..... you’re in Texas right ?


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4487898 - 08/29/19 11:35 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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No, moved five years ago. Don't know where to change that. I've been near Orlando for the past 5 years.


"From our orbital vantage point, we observe an earth without borders, full of peace, beauty and magnificence, and we pray that humanity as a whole can imagine a borderless world as we see it, and strive to live as one in peace."
Astronaut William C. McCool RIP, January 29, 2003 - Space Shuttle Columbia

#4487899 - 08/29/19 11:37 PM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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And I think it's the compressor! That should be 2 or 3 thousand dollars. Geez!


"From our orbital vantage point, we observe an earth without borders, full of peace, beauty and magnificence, and we pray that humanity as a whole can imagine a borderless world as we see it, and strive to live as one in peace."
Astronaut William C. McCool RIP, January 29, 2003 - Space Shuttle Columbia

#4487904 - 08/30/19 12:23 AM Re: Hurricane Dorian Not Likely To Hit Florida as a Cat 2 but rather as a Strong Cat 3 [Re: Haggart]  
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Lifer

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Do you want me to update location to Orlando ?


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
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