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#4438212 - 09/11/18 01:24 AM Hurricane Florence  
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Bunch of North Carolinian's post here. What are your plans?

Current projections for Raleigh are CAT1 winds plus +10" of rain from the storm.
And that's after it batters the coast.

I'm afraid my beautiful state will look a lot different next week.

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#4438214 - 09/11/18 01:36 AM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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Dear Parris Island recruits.

Ahh heck, have fun. They'll prolly move ya to Mt Thunder,

Hmmm, they should!


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#4438231 - 09/11/18 03:15 AM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: Nixer]  
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Originally Posted by Nixer
Dear Parris Island recruits.

Ahh heck, have fun. They'll prolly move ya to Mt Thunder,

Hmmm, they should!



My eldest son graduated PI 8 years ago today, there was a hurricane (Earl I think) threatening that week as well.


"In the vast library of socialist books, there’s not a single volume on how to create wealth, only how to take and “redistribute” it.” - David Horowitz
#4438236 - 09/11/18 03:55 AM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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Attention: Please be on Alert and take this storm seriously

The Storm is coming! ..Take heed..

see: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Originally Posted by NHC NOAA

[Linked Image]


I'm on the west coast but am following the storm closely, having a relative that Will be affected, even though they are in SC and out of the predicted cone.
Remember or FYI; the cone predictions indicate the eye wall landing area. The actual hurricane storm walls en masse are much larger / wider! extending easily hundreds of miles out from there in this case.

The reason for the highlights and saying Will so strongly, is I hope everyone will the message that this storm is not about to be swayed by "good wishes" or "hopes" that it won't hit.

Prayers will be needed. And they may help. But please don't think God will somehow waive the laws of physical nature entirely in this case..

Though I wish it were not so, the weather predictions are real accurate nowadays. this hurricane will make landfall and may even be a CAT 5. Also its very large and predicted to slowin speed at landfall.

Packing buku rainfall and on top of the rainfall already saturating the areas there will be major flooding.

The storm surge itself could be larger than any other hurricane that has hit there.

And inland you are not safe by any means. If you're in Raleigh you are in for it, sorry to say.
And plenty of other areas in many states all the way to Ohio to the Great Lakes.

I would strongly advise you to evacuate to a safer state far out of the area of the affected states.
If you are anywhere near the hurricane even neighboring states you better get ready and not fool yourself.
And there will be plenty of side-effects to many states and of course much help needed by neighbors!

This hurricane could be one of the worst in recent history, so please be advised.

And note that Norfolk is not exempt from this by any means. Probably they are scrambling at this very moment. Also with a TStorm headed for Oahu, Pacific Fleet is also going to be somewhat busy.
So the def threat is likely to be exaserbated.

Please Stay Alert.

Sorry to sound like a bit like the Town Crier or an alarmist here, but it is warranted..

Attached Files r_024408_key_messages_sm.png
#4438256 - 09/11/18 10:25 AM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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Take care you guys in the Carolinas and hopefully this storm will weaken a bit before it hits landfall.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4438273 - 09/11/18 11:39 AM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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Stay safe guys!


EV's are the Devils matchbox.
#4438278 - 09/11/18 12:27 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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Originally Posted by piper
Bunch of North Carolinian's post here. What are your plans?

Current projections for Raleigh are CAT1 winds plus +10" of rain from the storm.
And that's after it batters the coast.

I'm afraid my beautiful state will look a lot different next week.


the new normal - with Ocean temperatures rising you can expect stronger and bigger Hurricanes and the likelihood that there will be several like that in sequence is the worst news.

even were I live we have now regularly Cyclones, thankfully it is not as bad as what you guys get.

#4438280 - 09/11/18 12:32 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: Tom_Weiss]  
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Originally Posted by Tom_Weiss


the new normal - with Ocean temperatures rising you can expect stronger and bigger Hurricanes and the likelihood that there will be several like that in sequence is the worst news.

even were I live we have now regularly Cyclones, thankfully it is not as bad as what you guys get.



Ocean temps have been rising and dropping for billions of years so there's nothing new here and powerful hurricanes like the ones we've had in recent years have also been documented going back to the 19th century.


No need to jump on the popular band wagon and shout "climate change!!!!" every time there's a fricking hurricane.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4438283 - 09/11/18 12:37 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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I hope you find comfort in that knowledge Panzermayer - when half of southern Florida is under water hopefully I hope so will they.

#4438284 - 09/11/18 12:37 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: Tom_Weiss]  
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Originally Posted by Tom_Weiss
I hope you find comfort in that knowledge Panzermayer - when half of southern Florida is under water hopefully I hope so will they.



Your sensationalism and hyperbole make you a joke sir.


No need to insult.


Last edited by oldgrognard; 09/11/18 12:40 PM.

“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4438286 - 09/11/18 12:39 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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Please let’s not take this off into a Global Warming debate.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#4438292 - 09/11/18 01:11 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: Tom_Weiss]  
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Originally Posted by Tom_Weiss
Originally Posted by piper
Bunch of North Carolinian's post here. What are your plans?

Current projections for Raleigh are CAT1 winds plus +10" of rain from the storm.
And that's after it batters the coast.

I'm afraid my beautiful state will look a lot different next week.


the new normal - with Ocean temperatures rising you can expect stronger and bigger Hurricanes and the likelihood that there will be several like that in sequence is the worst news.

even were I live we have now regularly Cyclones, thankfully it is not as bad as what you guys get.



That is what alarmists said immediately after Katrina, and then we didn't have a major hurricane for years, so of course as soon as another major storm pops up the same cry goes out. But the historic record shows that we are having no more nor no stronger such storms now than 100 years ago. The only thing that has changed is that there are 100/1000 times more people living in the areas affected.


"In the vast library of socialist books, there’s not a single volume on how to create wealth, only how to take and “redistribute” it.” - David Horowitz
#4438293 - 09/11/18 01:12 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4



The only thing that has managed is that there are 100/1000 times more people living in the areas affected.



+1


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4438295 - 09/11/18 01:16 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4



That is what alarmists said immediately after Katrina, and then we didn't have a major hurricane for years, so of course as soon as another major storm pops up the same cry goes out. But the historic record shows that we are having no more nor no stronger such storms now than 100 years ago. The only thing that has changed is that there are 100/1000 times more people living in the areas affected.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria

Quote
The tenth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record and the most intense tropical cyclone worldwide of 2017, Maria was the thirteenth named storm, eighth consecutive hurricane, fourth major hurricane, second Category 5 hurricane, and the deadliest storm of the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Last edited by Tom_Weiss; 09/11/18 01:17 PM.
#4438298 - 09/11/18 01:20 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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IMHO, with a potential loss of life and/or property, this is a major catastrophic event like experiencing bombings or being in a warzone. I just hope that it passes without any serious damage.

#4438303 - 09/11/18 01:47 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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most oil refineries are at sea level - something what like what happened to Kansai International Airport is highly likely to happen in the future.

https://youtu.be/LZvZLVUEHtY

#4438327 - 09/11/18 03:25 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: Tom_Weiss]  
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Originally Posted by Tom_Weiss
Originally Posted by F4UDash4



That is what alarmists said immediately after Katrina, and then we didn't have a major hurricane for years, so of course as soon as another major storm pops up the same cry goes out. But the historic record shows that we are having no more nor no stronger such storms now than 100 years ago. The only thing that has changed is that there are 100/1000 times more people living in the areas affected.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria

Quote
The tenth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record and the most intense tropical cyclone worldwide of 2017, Maria was the thirteenth named storm, eighth consecutive hurricane, fourth major hurricane, second Category 5 hurricane, and the deadliest storm of the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season



Thirteen years after Katrina. We were told that Katrina was the harbinger of things to come, the norm would be that cat 5 hurricanes would hit the mainland US every year, even multiple times per year. Did Not Happen.


"In the vast library of socialist books, there’s not a single volume on how to create wealth, only how to take and “redistribute” it.” - David Horowitz
#4438333 - 09/11/18 03:51 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: F4UDash4]  
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Originally Posted by F4UDash4

Thirteen years after Katrina. We were told that Katrina was the harbinger of things to come, the norm would be that cat 5 hurricanes would hit the mainland US every year, even multiple times per year. Did Not Happen.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes
Quote

List of Category 4 hurricanes
Listed in chronological order

All data listed is provided by the NHC best track, unless otherwise noted. Also, some pressure readings for the older storms may have been taken at a time other than the storm's peak intensity. Thus, some pressure readings might not be the minimum pressure.

Some pressure readings are unavailable due to scarce information.

Hurricane frequency Period Number Number per year
1851–1900......................... 13 .............. 0.26
1901–1950......................... 29 .............. 0.58
1951–1975......................... 22 .............. 0.88
1976–2000......................... 24 .............. 0.96
2001–present..................... 24............... 1.4

#4438338 - 09/11/18 04:05 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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Are Category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in number?

Quote
1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.

3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.

5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.

6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.

7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.

8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.

9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.

10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.


"In the vast library of socialist books, there’s not a single volume on how to create wealth, only how to take and “redistribute” it.” - David Horowitz
#4438342 - 09/11/18 04:17 PM Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: piper]  
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https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-data-hurricanes-will-get-worse/

Quote
You say hurricanes will get bigger, and last longer. Why?

As climate change makes oceans hotter there is more heat—more energy—available, so there is likely to be an increase in hurricane activity. That can be the size of the storms, their duration and their intensity.

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