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#4388822 - 11/08/17 04:55 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: MarkG]  
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Originally Posted by MarkG
Originally Posted by Mr_Blastman
The day is coming somewhere in the near future where arrogant, egotistical software developers are replaced by self-writing code.


Who's going to write the code that writes the code that writes itself? biggrin

Your scenario is probably not going to happen anytime soon...
https://mortoray.com/2017/03/22/programming-wont-be-automated-or-it-already-has-been/

As someone summarized...

• Programming involves a lot of skills beyond raw coding, including many soft skills and people skills.
• Programmers already try to automate as much as possible and it there always seems to be more to do nonetheless.
• The type of AI we have now is very limited. The type that could program would be at a human level sentience, at which point there are bigger concerns than just my programming job.

++++++++++

Personal thoughts...

Self-modifying code is kinda neat and maybe useful in a specific controlled environment but programming requires too much abstraction, ugly hacks and thinking outside of the box. OOP especially (supposedly the solution for spaghetti code) can get really hairy if you don't carefully plan ahead your object trees. Too many constant advancements, all with imperfections, in the mix as well. No compiler is perfect, coding often requires unconventional workarounds and streamlining, and even clever programmers don't always understand exactly how their code works, just that it does, usually after multiple attempts to solve a problem (in Masters of DOOM, John Carmack mentions hacks he used in the original DOOM to fix wall polygon clipping, also that he's constantly finding new innovations).

Soo...I don't think programmers are losing sleep over robots taking their jobs.


Some assumptions in that summarization above may not be correct.

Programming software to be user-friendly for human users (and developed in conjunction with other human programmers) requires many soft skills and people skills. If computers start writing code to be primarily utilized by other computers without human interaction, much of that need might go away.
Computers don't get tired, and are not limited to xx hours per day/week of work. They may not need to streamline code as much, especially as silicon continues to advance the amount of CPU and memory/storage that is available to be used. The type of AI we have now is very limited, but much less so than it was a few years ago. Brute force combined with some well designed guidance/ground rules, combined with internet access to mountains of existing code samples could yield some surprises in the not too distant future. While deep learning / neural networks appears to be getting the lion's share of attention in AI research these days, another AI field... genetic algorithms is well suited to exploiting additional CPU power, etc. as technology advances. Slicing and dicing is time consuming, but the slicers are getting faster.

One of the harder challenges in programming is taking full advantage of the growing number of processing cores / threads that are being made available by the CPU manufacturers. As progress continues being made on that front, the more brute force computing becomes available to computers that are using multiple iterations with slight changes, etc. to get useful results.

I also don't believe that it will necessarily require that a computer have "human level sentience" to write a program, especially if the program isn't aimed at being used by humans. If the program is to be used by other computers without human involvement, the necessity for a spiffy looking, human friendly interface is eliminated. If the code isn't streamlined, it won't run as fast as it would if it were streamlined... but the computers running it won't care. The more processing power that becomes available, the less need there is for streamlining.

It won't happen tomorrow. I think we are looking at multiple years, but not multiple decades.

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#4388843 - 11/08/17 07:37 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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10 PRINT "Hello World!"
20 GOTO 10

smile

Welcome to the Information Age. Of course the largest corporations have fewer workers, as we've moved from a manufacturing based economy to a service based one to an information based one.

This is part of the reason that slowly the call for skilled labor has increased in volume. We don't need a zillion coders typing in machine code...I just need someone to fix my AC unit, and there is no app for that.

I foresee a return to where when one says they're a mason, a plumber or even a janitor it's met with an encouraging smile instead of condescension.


The opinions of this poster are largely based on facts and portray a possible version of the actual events.

More dumb stuff at http://www.darts-page.com

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#4388845 - 11/08/17 07:46 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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My brother has an account at the Army tank plant, Tacom, in Warren, Michigan. He tells me the janitors there make $33 dollars an hour with full benefits and pensions. Not bad work, if you can get it.

#4388846 - 11/08/17 07:48 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: LB4LB]  
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Originally Posted by LB4LB
Not bad work, if you can get it.



Yeah, that's extremely rare to say the least and that kind of wage inflation for low skilled labor really only exists within the bureaucratic world of government spending!

Last edited by PanzerMeyer; 11/08/17 07:48 PM.

“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4388847 - 11/08/17 07:53 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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You wouldn't believe the spending that goes on just in things like parties, entertaining, and food at that place. The food service workers are unionized and actually make well over the average for that job.

Last edited by LB4LB; 11/08/17 07:55 PM.
#4388848 - 11/08/17 07:53 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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Of course, machines can only do what the programmers instruct them to do, even with modifying their own code. Self-modifying code may make sense in some specialized industrial applications but I don't see 'robots' writing any software that I'll ever use. smile

++++++++++

Once again I'm reading "Masters of DOOM - How Two Guys Created An Empire And Transformed Pop Culture" - David Kushner. I'd forgotten that Michael Abrash was part of id Software for a short spell helping with the Quake engine (then back to Microsoft). Reading one of Abrash's technical books brought me back to "Masters of DOOM", also to a technical book by Jeff Duntemann. Interesting to me as these guys know each other and usually write about their friendships at the beginning of their books.

Anyway, "Masters of DOOM" always reminds me how quickly a large project's Design Document can be tossed out the window (either not capable of completing or 'we can even do better', usually the former) as large projects often evolve during development, requiring many human decisions. No robots are going to be developing operating systems and flight sims, but as CyBerkut noted, these programs are for humans.

If you get a chance, it's fun to read "Masters of DOOM" while playing the shareware versions of Keen, Wolf3D, DOOM and Quake as you go.



The rusty wire that holds the cork that keeps the anger in
Gives way and suddenly it’s day again
The sun is in the east
Even though the day is done
Two suns in the sunset, hmph
Could be the human race is run
#4388878 - 11/08/17 11:50 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: MarkG]  
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Originally Posted by MarkG

Soo...I don't think programmers are losing sleep over robots taking their jobs.


Oh it'll happen, and sooner than we think. Some executive right now is dreaming of the costs they could cut by shifting all those highly paid software developers to the unemployment line, and are busy searching for the greedy genius they can bait with huge perks to betray their own kind. If I were an exec that's what I'd be doing--if I were hot to trot to rule the world.

Besides, what knows the ins and outs of a computer better than itself? It'll start small with little bits, like we see with Facebook's code creating its own language to talk amongst itself, and Google's image search creating categories and such, but soon enough, once AI reaches the point where it is aware it is an AI(and this WILL happen), then it is only a matter of time.

Developers days are numbered. They're arrogance of believing themselves are god will do them in.

#4388890 - 11/09/17 01:26 AM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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Ever write a program or simple routine in Assembly? You learn some low level voodoo, how a computer processes code using the CPU registers, the stack, stuff like that. You also learn just how utterly brain dead stupid a computer really is.

If we're talking about Skynet then *everyone's* days are number, right? smile



The rusty wire that holds the cork that keeps the anger in
Gives way and suddenly it’s day again
The sun is in the east
Even though the day is done
Two suns in the sunset, hmph
Could be the human race is run
#4388893 - 11/09/17 01:44 AM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Mr_Blastman]  
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Originally Posted by Mr_Blastman

Developers days are numbered. They're arrogance of believing themselves are god will do them in.


Don't know what your beef with developers is, but I've never worked with dev who was "arrogant".

Interesting discussion. Currently, machine learning involves gathering empirical data to make the decision trees more accurate. But it's
still the same base code that was flashed in. Wouldn't worry about the software, it the hardware that's getting spooky. Graphine based
microchips and quantum computing. A lot of good work for software developers coming. I'm not worried about my job.

#4388901 - 11/09/17 02:59 AM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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Shoot, there are still job openings for mainframe legacy system developers.

#4388914 - 11/09/17 05:31 AM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: MarkG]  
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Originally Posted by MarkG
Ever write a program or simple routine in Assembly? You learn some low level voodoo, how a computer processes code using the CPU registers, the stack, stuff like that. You also learn just how utterly brain dead stupid a computer really is.

If we're talking about Skynet then *everyone's* days are number, right? smile


Yep. I used to write code for Unix systems and routines that helped the machines collaborate with one another a little more than a decade ago before I left the industry altogether out of boredom. I view coding as a tool and a means to an end, and realized it was a nonsensical venture given how you must constantly learn new languages to do the same thing, over and over. Madness defined.

Last edited by Mr_Blastman; 11/09/17 05:36 AM.
#4388915 - 11/09/17 05:36 AM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: piper]  
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Originally Posted by piper
Originally Posted by Mr_Blastman

Don't know what your beef with developers is, but I've never worked with dev who was "arrogant".



I've met countless devs with a god complex. It's a strange thing, what I have observed. Not sure why it is so prevalent among the group but just my anecdotal observation--especially in engineering schools/comp-sci school. To be fair I've also met my share of pretty cool ones, too. But I've met a lot of ones who were dicks as well. Likely it is an intelligence thing, because the trait is pretty common among Mensa circles also. But man should never forget that despite how smart we think we are, we're one bad decision away from being dead in a box or walking among the apes again.

#4389007 - 11/09/17 10:48 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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So what's the solution to automation?
A universal wage? The state pays people to do what they want? While the utopian ambition is that people freed from employment dedicate themselves to education, arts, crafts, etc, there's going to be a majority who suck up the benefit without giving anything back. Society is doomed!

We're entering Star Trek territory in the next ten years or so.

So many unskilled and low skilled jobs are going to disappear to AI.

Just take transport.

Taxis. Trucking and delivery. Trains. Planes.

Safer, quicker, and 100% obedient to the rules of the road (or air).

There are already bots that have a better success rate at defending parking tickets than human lawyers. This is probably to be celebrated biggrin

The only work that's going to be left is the creative stuff (new science, high end architecture, music, poetry etc), the social stuff (face-to-face fundraising, high end sales, religion, event management) and the stuff you have to be there for (nursing, fixing a gas leak, childcare).

#4389008 - 11/09/17 11:09 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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Have we not learned anything from Back to the Future II?



The rusty wire that holds the cork that keeps the anger in
Gives way and suddenly it’s day again
The sun is in the east
Even though the day is done
Two suns in the sunset, hmph
Could be the human race is run
#4389009 - 11/09/17 11:13 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: MarkG]  
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Originally Posted by MarkG
Have we not learned anything from Back to the Future II?


Don't bet against the Cubs for the World Series? biggrin

#4389100 - 11/10/17 07:55 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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@Mr_Blastman - I have the same experience. Got a Master's in Comp Sci, worked in the industry for 10+ years and left out of disgust because no-cred bankers told us what aspects of security were important and which were not. (I am, for that reason, somewhat more than gleeful about what happened with Equifax)

But maybe contrary to you (dunno about your curriculum vitae) I have experienced the exact same thing in all other industries. Maybe it's the phenomenon of "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing", or "it's easy to be the big fish in a small pond". I would say that high level coders are a bit less arrogant than the professional industry as a whole, maybe only because it is so much easier to be called out when you were wrong when it comes to code. A "Madoff" is hard to imagine amongst coders, right?

As for computers taking over - I will be afraid once there is a set of algorithms in place that makes it possible for computers to exchange "rules of inference" and apply those to any given problem. That means - if a program that is good at deriving future strategies based on and pertaining to previous challenges a problemst, say, GO would be able transfer those "insights" to a program meant to play chess, then yes, we'd be able to say that we have achieved a certain level of AI.

We are very, very far from that. We are talking about the goal of 'Abstraction", and we are nowhere even near to figuring out how that is accomplished by our own brains. Once we do that it would be somewhat trivial to code it... but even given that I think politicians would still prevail. If there's a bleak future ahead it will be entirely the fault of mankind.

#4389179 - 11/11/17 05:40 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Mr_Blastman]  
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Originally Posted by Mr_Blastman
The day is coming somewhere in the near future where arrogant, egotistical software developers are replaced by self-writing code.


Are we software developers so stupid for actually writing that code?

#4389182 - 11/11/17 05:43 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Mr_Blastman]  
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duplicated pots... hummm,,, maybe we are.

Last edited by Aullido; 11/11/17 05:45 PM.
#4389208 - 11/11/17 09:30 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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Option 1)

Hey dude, look at this, it's really cool.

**SKYNET ACTIVATED**

Option 2)

Should that be +1 or -1 on line 34,532? +1 I think...

**SKYNET ACTIVATED**

#4389473 - 11/13/17 04:52 PM Re: An Interesting Trend Found in 5 of the Biggest Tech Companies in the U.S. [Re: Haggart]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
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Interesting analysis here by a former Google executive,

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/13/ex-...-obliterate-white-collar-jobs-first.html


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
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