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#4218725 - 01/19/16 12:29 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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shan2 Offline
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For my tax-deferred retirement accounts, I can sell funds at any time without much in terms of penalties. However, for those that aren't, it's a tougher decision. I've held some stocks for a very long time and the profits from them would really incur some nasty levels of capital gains taxes. Unless I suspect a major drop in the value, I just hedge my bets by shorting in those cases. Even in the worst scenarios, I can just sell to cover.

So far...the strategy has worked fairly well. I'm pretty cash-heavy at the moment and hedged against losses. The really worrisome thing about the current situation is that we're in uncharted waters with so many powerhouses of the global economy running into trouble at the same time.


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#4218801 - 01/19/16 07:56 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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#4218869 - 01/19/16 12:13 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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Yeah, crash predictions are a dime a dozen...

Think of it another way. Analyst predicts Microsoft Business crash in 2016. Analyst predicts Intel to lose all their assets in 2016. Analyst predicts Apple to suddenly falter and become a penny stock in 2016.

Essentially this is what they are predicting, or at least the way it's received by the emotional masses. If I see a "crash" I'm thinking buying opportunity. Even in a car crash, someone is making money, and that's the auto body repair company. Just make sure you're in a position to be they guy to fix it.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4219475 - 01/20/16 05:49 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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CG2015 Offline
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Another big 500-600 points tumble so far today.

#4219480 - 01/20/16 05:56 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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The DOW needs to be around 15000 to be stable. Think of the markets like the temp of your home. 80 degrees too hot, 60 degrees too cold, 70 just right. We've been running the heat at 90 degrees. The natural reduction in heat output via a sell-off is much needed.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4219652 - 01/21/16 02:10 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  

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My invested 50% did took a hit but not as bad as I was expecting. There are still gains that I haven't realized yet in there.

#4219683 - 01/21/16 04:49 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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CG2015 Offline
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Originally Posted By: TerribleTwo
The DOW needs to be around 15000 to be stable.


It's at 15,700+. So when it reaches 15,000 it will stop?

#4219686 - 01/21/16 04:58 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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wheelsup_cavu Offline
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Imo, the markets have been oversold and too high for years. Companies stock prices that are 4 and 5 times value or even higher have never made sense to me...


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#4219688 - 01/21/16 05:02 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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CG2015 Offline
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One of my stock just went to about 70 cents over what I paid for today after hours.

Tomorrow I will sell them.

It was at $114 a year ago. I should had sold them if I knew then what I know now.

#4219706 - 01/21/16 06:21 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: CG2015]  
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wheelsup_cavu Offline
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Originally Posted By: CG2015
One of my stock just went to about 70 cents over what I paid for today after hours.

Tomorrow I will sell them.

It was at $114 a year ago. I should had sold them if I knew then what I know now.

Been there. We all wish for that crystal ball but for some reason it always fails us...
Hope you can get out without losing any money.


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#4219972 - 01/21/16 07:32 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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CG2015 Offline
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That stock I was talking about is now at $2.65 over what I paid for.

All this time of lately it has been at $2-$5 below what I paid and just sitting there being sluggish.

I am selling all and taking my $2.65 per share profit while I still can.

#4220064 - 01/22/16 02:22 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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Nothing goes up forever, or expands infinite. Can you say 'derivatives' nuclear weapon of financial destruction. Plenty of sound companies went under in previous depressions, debt never just disappears.

#4220752 - 01/24/16 12:00 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  

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A friend of mine working for a company selling derivatives hates some of their products. From his perspective it's a "nuclear weapon" to common investors.

Actually expecting another drop after the so-called rally last Friday. I need to go for the record though that I have never, ever successfully predicted or "sensed" when the market will go back up.

TBH, years on the stock market have taken their toll on me and I'm really tired of reacting to the ups and downs.


Last edited by oselisan; 01/31/16 06:33 AM. Reason: some details removed due to paranoia
#4220880 - 01/24/16 10:47 AM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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I vote for Oselisan to be the official SimHQ Financial Adviser! smile



#4220946 - 01/24/16 03:35 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: Nodak01]  
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Originally Posted By: Nodak01
Nothing goes up forever, or expands infinite. Can you say 'derivatives' nuclear weapon of financial destruction. Plenty of sound companies went under in previous depressions, debt never just disappears.


That's a fallacy. Wealth is never lost, it is only transferred. Sound companies never just go out of business. A sound business means that it continues to adapt to market conditions. General Electric is about as long lasting as one could want. I'm proud to tell you that "we've" owned GE since 1950's. There's nothing since 1950 that has caused "us" to ever doubt the long term sound business practice of GE.

And to answer the previous, 15000 is where the DOW needs to hang around and stabilize. In other words, it begins to build a foundation of trades at that level. That could mean 14000 to 16000 as a target for stabilization. once stabilized, it can then continue back to 17000 and then 20000.



"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4220958 - 01/24/16 04:09 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: oldgrognard]  
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Originally Posted By: oldgrognard
I recently cashed out my stocks. All of it that I had in equities. I just wish I had done it earlier.

No, my financial advisor did not warn me the downturn was coming. In fact he resisted my withdrawing my investments. Wanted me to keep it all and ride out the turbulence. Gave me the whole "over time stocks rise... you can't time the market by getting in and out.... how will you know when it is the bottom and get back in.... etc" . I had to be clear and insistent to cash it in. I told him I expected to see the market drop 20% or more in the next six months. I told him that everything I read shows very weak conditions. I added that there is more political turmoil coming that will drive the market lower. Told him that the hopes on emerging markets, BRIC, had ended and they were tanking. He kept telling me I was making a mistake. It is in his interest that I stay invested. That is where his commissions come from.

I guess I'll find out whether I was right or he was.

It has gone down a good bit since then. I expect more. My current thinking is that when the DOW hits 14,000 then I'll assess getting back in.


I hope nobody got into oil a year ago when people where saying it looked like it was a good time to buy. It has plunged since then.



One of the reasons we do not recommended selling is that invariably people get the sale and repurchase timings incorrect because nobody can predict the top and bottom of the markets.

The switch or surrender of investments are usually done when a fund is not performing in line with the sector, or a client's attitude to risk and loss. The aim is usually to meet the attitude to risk and recommend funds or shares in line with their requirements and risk.

If the aim is to fund for income in retirement then your adviser is correct as it is usually wiser to 'ride the storm' than try to second guess the markets, that's the job of the fund manager or portfolio manager to rebalance the holdings.

The trouble is that yes we get paid adviser charges or commission from your holdings but also everything we do has to be accounted for and 99.99% of transactions done via a financial adviser must be advised. Client insistence or execution only transactions can not be allowed to happen too often otherwise it can be seen that we are not doing our job and basically trying to pass future bucks and not performing the necessary due diligence for our clients. We must provide the correct advice and provide evidence as such before any instruction contrary to this advice can be accepted.

#4221323 - 01/25/16 03:57 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: BD-123]  

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Originally Posted By: BD-123
I vote for Oselisan to be the official SimHQ Financial Adviser! smile


I don't think that would be healthy for me with this type of market (late cycle?). smile

It's difficult especially if it's for a friend and in an informal way. For example, I no longer have DIS stock (got out with 50%+ profits) but the reason I'm still following DIS up to now is because my friend didn't heed my advice when I told him to get out the moment the opportunity presented itself. He entered at a fairly high price last year. It was a bit difficult to break it to him that there's a possibility things could get worse for DIS when the earnings report come in.

Just remembered an adviser who complained and told me how her clients cursed her over the phone when the markets went down.

Best time to be an adviser is during a bull market when everyone appears to be a genius.

#4282731 - 07/28/16 04:28 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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TerribleTwo Online content
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Originally Posted By: TerribleTwo
I used to trade stocks. On 3-14-2014 I told everyone to:

Quote:
Buy Facebook stock. And hold it for long term.

They are the next google, huge client base, and they have a visionary leader.

Trust me investors.... buy it, and forget what it does tomorrow and the next day, think years from now. She'll be $500 or more.


You'll notice that the thing has quad-rupled since I posted this. If you have some cash, this might be a good time to get in before the next quad-druple-ing.



Sure hope some of you took my advice on FB. $127 per share. More than quadrupled now.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4282770 - 07/28/16 06:20 PM Re: Markets tanking early Q1, anyone also saw this coming too? [Re: ]  
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jroc Offline
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Not a derail intended comment, but...

Oselisan, have you ever considered the foreign exchange market as an alternative to stocks? I dumped all my stock (managed by UBS) years ago. Since then I've had a friend manage an account on the foreign exchange market. He's consistently accomplished 1-2.5% returns per month. Every single month for the last 5 five years. I'm not qualified to do this nor willing to be up in the middle of the night when the London market is open, but my friend is a pro. Surely others can do this too?...

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