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#3601592 - 07/04/12 09:27 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Hpasp Offline
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Hello guys, your findings are awesome thumbsup

PS: regarding the launch photo, there is RSSI of 40dB. It was S-200D, but is it possible for Tu-154 in that distance?


If you check the picture...
Click to reveal..


... you can see the following:

- 40dB signal strength.
- 500km display range. (Target is pretty close)
- H indicator is set to 5km altitude. (Target between 1~2km altitude)
- Target is in destruction zone, closer than 38km (against low targets).


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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Inline advert (2nd and 3rd post)

#3601596 - 07/04/12 09:39 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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Originally Posted By: PLCC
Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Yes, but why missile flew this way when should be locked to the target 32km far? Plamja uploads flight program selection to missile, so I do not understand it. Especially when I take launch photo into account - 40db for a (large) target 250km far?


The graph was made by the Interstate Aviation Committee. The 03a md-expert findings20100521.pdf document contains testimony from court expert witnesses refuting the IAC's claims. They state that the missile trajectory, in the horizontal (p. 17) and vertical planes, does not correspond to how the 5V28 actually operates.


That is correct.
The missile of the S-200VE is going up with 48degree to 40km altitude, then slowly (with Mach6) glides down.

This graph is rather depicts the ballistic path of an S-300PM missile.


Last edited by Hpasp; 07/04/12 09:43 AM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3601597 - 07/04/12 09:42 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: JWNoctis]  
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Originally Posted By: JWNoctis
So...If what they said is true, then whatever's left, however unlikely, has now become more than likely:

The missile, albeit unguided and somehow still armed in a highly unlikely combination of events, still managed to get to the wrong place at the wrong time.

Or slightly more likely, someone else has illuminated the Tu-154 at some time during the missile's flight. Or the Tu-154 has somehow pulled the speed gate from the drone onto itself.

...God knows.


Negative.
nope

The target should have illuminated by the same RPC where the missile belonged.
Without the illumination, the radio proxy fuse of the missile is not working.
(its also semi active)


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3601603 - 07/04/12 10:20 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Alien_MasterMynd Offline
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp


... you can see the following:

- 40dB signal strength.
- 500km display range. (Target is pretty close)
- H indicator is set to 5km altitude. (Target between 1~2km altitude)
- Target is in destruction zone, closer than 38km (against low targets).

Yes, so I do not understand what happened :-(

It's what I wrote on a previous page:
Yes, we all should know the missile climbs to the height, and then slowly descends to optimize energy loss and is heading to the target. And probably above 20km it is only some approximation since that radar is limited to 20km in height. This is not a question.
The question is why missile flew with a long distance flight program when the target should be 32km far. And the missile had to fly using this program because in the other case it would not (under any ciscumstances) get that far (about its maximum range).

#3601604 - 07/04/12 10:27 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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There are a lot of denials of S-200 kill shot version in the .pdf mentioned couple posts ago even experts told that distance (~250 km), the missile should miss with hundred meters....

By the way an offtopic link on russian, but it is good to knew it:

http://hubara-rus.ru/kavkaz.html

#3601609 - 07/04/12 10:38 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Why should miss with a such distance? Since it has semiactive homing, it should be guided to target (almost) independently of its distance to radar.

#3601611 - 07/04/12 10:53 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Why should miss with a such distance? Since it has semiactive homing, it should be guided to target (almost) independently of its distance to radar.


Because of the huge RCS of Tu-154, it's return signal goes outside the GSN antena and AS is going off (if I got it right with mine ukrainian...).

HEY, IS THERE AN UKRAINIAN????? HELP, PLEASE!!!! rant-on-off

#3601621 - 07/04/12 11:40 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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I translated bits of information using google and there is this information: VR-3 had doppler speed of 250m/s and Tu-154 about 130-140m/s.
So it is impossible to track both of them simultaneously (either by RPC or GSN), because RPC has bandwidth of 200Hz and GSN 400Hz (250m/s is 12,5kHz and 130m/s is about 6,5kHz so the difference is about 6kHz and it obviously do not fall into 200Hz or 400Hz range).
But what is not stated there what if the target is still illuminated.
12:42 VR-3 is destroyed by S-300PS.
S-200 crew may not know it and their AS is lost. So they try to reacquire it, they see the Tu-154's return (as I remeber it was about 14 degrees away in azimuth). They lock it, the are in a hurry, they do not want to lose the missile and fail the test.
So they can ignore RSSI indicator, but the required change in distance is something they should see.
So GSN is looking for the target, wide beam mode should see signal from Tu-154 and it goes back to AS mode.

This sounds reasonable, BUT - missile is not on the trajectory allowing such a long flight. So it is unexplainable again :-(

PS: their P-18 indicator was set to 90km distance so they did not know what is going on outside this range. But why they had a P-18 instead of a P-14? It does not have any effect on situation, but I would like to know.

#3601658 - 07/04/12 01:35 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
...
PS: their P-18 indicator was set to 90km distance so they did not know what is going on outside this range. But why they had a P-18 instead of a P-14? It does not have any effect on situation, but I would like to know.


Moving the P-18 into a temporary firing range position is much less pain, compared to the P-14.
(P-18 range was more than the target drone)

It would also mean, that the "X" screen was black during the engagement...


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3601679 - 07/04/12 02:20 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
Moving the P-18 into a temporary firing range position is much less pain, compared to the P-14.
(P-18 range was more than the target drone)

It would also mean, that the "X" screen was black during the engagement...


Thanks.

The latter is obvious thumbsup

#3631492 - 08/23/12 04:59 PM Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens?  
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Hi, guys!

I wish to continue with analyzing of the S-200V version of downing the "syberia"-s Tu-154M.
First I would ask the moderator to transfer all posts here. They started from this page:
http://simhq.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/3599333/335.html

My plan is to use google earth and information we managed to got from the net, and created a picture of the happening, also discussing some expert statements in the court. Maybe one day Hpasp could use his SIM like an investigation tool, and we would be able to see how it looks like from the "Vega"'s vans...

I hope Lieste an Lonewolf would participate firmly in this topic! wink

#3632323 - 08/25/12 12:55 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Somewhere....over the Rainbow
Done. If you all find more posts on this topic in the old topic, PM me with their locations and I will transfer them here as well.

BTW, Piston79, thanks. This got five pages out of the old thread without me having to try and scratch my head and figure our where to put them. It was a big help.

Last edited by Cat; 08/25/12 01:18 AM.

Miao, Cat
#3632961 - 08/26/12 12:31 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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While I was trying to recreate the same situation that was captured on the CONTROL PHOTO, I found something extremely important.

Original CONTROL PHOTO, attached to the official inquiry material.
(I do not want to suggest, that this photo is manipulated in any way...)


Here is the state what I tried to reproduced in the SAMSIM. (SU-22 over Hungary, @ range of 60km, flying at 2km alt)



Something is extreemly unnatural at this picture, and I would like to encourage you to try to recreate it, to find it out yourselves the problem, what I see here, about the state of this Vega SAM complex...

Last edited by Hpasp; 08/26/12 12:41 PM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3632971 - 08/26/12 12:55 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Something is extreemly unnatural at this picture, and I would like to encourage you to try to recreate it, to find it out yourselves the problem, what I see here, about the state of this Vega SAM complex...


At first looks like Tu-143 "Reis" has 40dB return signal, and Su-22 - about 30 dB. Of course, "Reis" could have a lens on it...



Max altitude for the Tu-143 is stated for about 1100 m. (but it is for the UAV, not the target variant).

Last edited by piston79; 08/26/12 02:03 PM.
#3633053 - 08/26/12 04:26 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Something is extreemly unnatural at this picture, and I would like to encourage you to try to recreate it, to find it out yourselves the problem, what I see here, about the state of this Vega SAM complex...


Max altitude for the Tu-143 is stated for about 1100 m. (but it is for the UAV, not the target variant).


Just check the instrument at right.
Its just below 2km.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3633098 - 08/26/12 05:44 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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But if it was "Reis-D" (Tu-243) - it goes up to 5000 m.
http://aviaros.narod.ru/tu-143.htm

EDIT:
In court dociments they mentioned BP-3 (Tu-143)!!!


Last edited by piston79; 12/24/12 11:41 AM.
#3633151 - 08/26/12 08:54 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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The only thing I notice at the first look, is the "calculated impact point". In the original photo it is much closer to the battery than in the simulator photo. But that's just a guess...

Last edited by xxJohnxx; 08/26/12 09:06 PM.
#3633322 - 08/27/12 06:26 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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I-RAN
i read all of this topic .... it is my personally idea about this happend
maybe could we say that's a Human Error


because when iff said wrongly (i am your target) sam crew have to check target DB!
i belive 100 per 100 sam crew can analyze and know why one little training aircraft from long range should send high DB....!!!!

50% IFF error and 50% human error

Last edited by milang; 08/27/12 07:52 AM.
#3633361 - 08/27/12 10:06 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Hpasp: I also tried Su-22 over Hungary (2000m, 500km/h). I got nearly 40dB when it was about 80km far.

#3633362 - 08/27/12 10:15 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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The information we had:
1. Air navigation map (thanks to Lonewolf)
2. BIP scheme (from the court materials)
3. Position of the S-200V site.
4. Tu-143 flight path
5. Tu-154M approximate RCS (thanks to Hpasp).

What is still unclear:
1. Time and place of the crash (some different time stamps and locations where stated into the documents).
2. RCS of the Tu-143 (did they used lens, or used it "clear").

Any suggestions how to mix all this in a 3D AAR-like picture? I knew with photoshop could be layered one over another those pics/maps and we could try to extract some flight path coordinates (pretty approximately indeed). Pity, I cannot work with Photoshop, and need help a bit... Also is there a way to put those in Google Earth directly, aany ideas (or it is not needed, due to little effect of earth curvative effect for such a distance)???

Also, we have some expertizes, which needed to be explained (tech stuff about the missile and radars), so anyone could join with help (the best would be a ukrainian PVO specialist wink )...

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