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#3597997 - 06/27/12 07:55 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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A question to Hpasp (or piston79 wave):
Does a 5V28 missile's GSN do doppler processing of the received signal (look for speed) or is it simply looking for the strongest received signal at given base frequency with some band around it?
I suppose it does a processing - GSN mode DO STARTA can be set to POISK V VKL so I think in this mode Plamja before launch uploads target speed and other data like flight profile to a flight computer and missile in a moment of launch looks for the given doppler velocity. In contrary when POISK V is VYKL (home on jam) missile does not look for target's speed. Am i correct?

I was thinking about the Tu accident and it led me to this idea. Does also the flight computer do some processing (or maybe not processing, there were no digital signal processors at that time) of the recived signal or does it at least monitor for example doppler frequency of received signal? Or the entire processing is done by GSN which then sends results to the computer which controls missile's steering wheels?
In other words if such a "target swap" can be possible - dramatic change of doppler velocity should be ignored by missile (but we do not know if both doppler speed weren't close to each other).
And I think that accident was strange either - the Tu plane was more than 200km far and despite it's large RCS I doubt it would create significantly stronger RSSI than the test target, which was indeed much closer (and experience with SAMSIM what RSSI vs different targets does makes me more sure). I think (if it was shot down by Vega) it was shot down intentionally (probably by a SAM crew's fault).

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#3598037 - 06/27/12 10:36 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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GSN 5G24 on 5V28 missile could search automaticcaly for target in case of lost autotracking. It searches the dopller signal (speed determination of the targets).

#3598040 - 06/27/12 11:01 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Yes, beacause of POISK V is VKL (search for velocity enabled), so I was correct. But what is the algorithm for it? How does it work when another target with different RSSI and probably different doppler speed is in the field of view of GSN (Ukrainian accident)?

Do you know how many missiles was shot against a test target? If there is a significat delay between launches and the target splashed away (so the 5N62 lost tracking) missile would continue on its path searching for the target. But it does so only for a limited time, after its expiration missile should autodestruct. But what is the probability that the plane accidentaly shot down would stay in the static (not moving) beam of 5N62 so the missile would acquire it and stay in it for such a long time before missile reaches it and explodes?
What was distance of a test target and the plane?

In case the 5N62 would not lost tracking (would keep lock on some falling remnant of a test target), then the second missile would be guided into it.

The more I think about that accident the more I know that I know nothing nope and it seems more and more suspicious to me.

Again it leads me to a hypothesis that the plane was acquired, tracked and shot down (if it was really hit by that Vega battery).

Last edited by Alien_MasterMynd; 06/27/12 11:08 AM.
#3598043 - 06/27/12 11:12 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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#3598050 - 06/27/12 11:45 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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And do you know how far it was?

#3598056 - 06/27/12 12:01 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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I did a quick calculation - 5N62 beam 1.4 degrees wide, target distance 200km. So the beam diameter at that distance is 4.88km. If the target would go at beam crossing speed of for example 200m/s . So the beam would be crossed in about 30s (effective beamwidth would be greater than mentioned 4,88km since the target is crossing it with angle different from 90 degrees to a radar boresight). Let's assume missile is flying at 1200m/s (may be slower for the given distance), so it results in test-target - Tu-154 distance of about 36km!!!! And no one will place test target such close to an air traffic corridor. So again I think the Tu-154 had to be tracked by 5N62. And again just in case it was really a Vega hit.

Last edited by Alien_MasterMynd; 06/27/12 12:14 PM.
#3598091 - 06/27/12 01:17 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
I did a quick calculation - 5N62 beam 1.4 degrees wide...


nope
1.4 degree wide only during target acquisition.
During target tracking it narrows down to 0.7 degree automatically.
(check "C" panel, or manual page 14)
cowboy

Last edited by Hpasp; 06/27/12 01:18 PM.

Hpasp
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#3598107 - 06/27/12 01:48 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Yes, I assumed tracking lost, so back to acquisition. Just the worst case to have crossing time as long as possible. To get the theory about misledaded missile biggest chance :-)

While tracking the other target the situation would be much worse because both targets should follow the same trajectory (as projected to radar and missile).

PS: while in SIR mode, the received signal of course would be weaker because the same energy is spread to the larger beam, but missile is already on its way and is significantly closer to the target.

Last edited by Alien_MasterMynd; 06/27/12 01:53 PM.
#3598186 - 06/27/12 04:06 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
A question to Hpasp (or piston79 wave):
Does a 5V28 missile's GSN do doppler processing of the received signal (look for speed) or is it simply looking for the strongest received signal at given base frequency with some band around it?


GSN is tracking the target in...
- Elevation and Azimuth coordinates compared to the missile axis. (Always)
- Doppler missile-target closing speed between 100-3500m/s. (except if you aim a jamming target)
- Range (in case of FKM signal emitted by the RPC)


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
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#3598201 - 06/27/12 04:18 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Yes, I assumed tracking lost, so back to acquisition. Just the worst case to have crossing time as long as possible. To get the theory about misledaded missile biggest chance :-)


I would rather bet on misidentified target.

SAM simulator is not emulating IFF systems, and their possible problems...
... I can easily imagine a situation, where the RPC locks on the passenger plane 70km away from the target drone, and receives positive IFF check.
(If the target drone had an on-board IFF, saying "I'm your target".)

grunt

PS: Also do not forget, that the 5V28M V-880M (SA-5C) missile has 300km range.

Last edited by Hpasp; 06/27/12 04:41 PM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3598229 - 06/27/12 05:03 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

PS: Also do not forget, that the 5V28M V-880M (SA-5C) missile has 300km range.


But the actual distance to the target in this case was around 350 km. I experimented with SAM Sim and Boeing 747 over Hungary, and I must admit that in MHI mode the received signal strength at that distance just reaches the required 25 dB, so it was theoretically possible for the homing head to lock on such aircraft. It looks like the missile far exceeded its performance limits, especially if it was S-200V, not S-200D. At the other circumstances this might be something its designers could be proud of... nope

#3598236 - 06/27/12 05:13 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

But the actual distance to the target in this case was around 350 km.


As nobody knows the place of the wreckage, we cannot measure its distance from any S-200 Site.
Also be aware, that the Dunbna's RPC has increased power output, compared to the Vega. (approx +10dB)

Last edited by Hpasp; 06/27/12 05:16 PM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3598243 - 06/27/12 05:27 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Quote:
Yes, beacause of POISK V is VKL (search for velocity enabled), so I was correct. But what is the algorithm for it? How does it work when another target with different RSSI and probably different doppler speed is in the field of view of GSN (Ukrainian accident)?


What I've read in a forum was that the target and the passanger plane was in the beam at the same time, and the target drone just "slips away".
Here you can see how the GSN works when searching for doppler signal return:
Click to reveal..

Shortly, it scans in a 2 ways (wide and narrow) and always goes from higher velocities (i.e. higher radial speed).
BDP is "Bolshoy diapazon poiska" - wide search diapazon
MDP is "Maloy diapazon poiska" - narrow search diapazon
SC is "Signal Cel/Tzel" - target return
SS is "Signal Svoego samoleta" - Own target return
NP is "Naprawlenie poiska" - vector of search on speed..

Here, danger zone for own ragets:


Here, distance to target and distance between target and own target safety zone:


My humble opinion is the target drone was more than 80 km away (thus allows high profile of the missile path), both targets were in the same radial speed (like Hawkeye and Tomcat), and due to strongest return of the Tu-154, RSN stays locked to him, nobody checks time of the missile flight and the worst happens.... frown

A link:
http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2001/10/9/4363197/

Last edited by piston79; 06/27/12 05:37 PM.
#3598244 - 06/27/12 05:30 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

But the actual distance to the target in this case was around 350 km. I experimented with SAM Sim and Boeing 747 over Hungary, and I must admit that in MHI mode the received signal strength at that distance just reaches the required 25 dB, so it was theoretically possible for the homing head to lock on such aircraft. It looks like the missile far exceeded its performance limits, especially if it was S-200V, not S-200D. At the other circumstances this might be something its designers could be proud of... nope


As some Dvina 80 km shots with disable self destruction mehanizm from NVA, and also Iraq converted Volkhov missile to SS type...

#3598264 - 06/27/12 06:06 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

But the actual distance to the target in this case was around 350 km.


As nobody knows the place of the wreckage, we cannot measure its distance from any S-200 Site.
Also be aware, that the Dunbna's RPC has increased power output, compared to the Vega. (approx +10dB)


I took the coordinates you have provided (4210'60.00"N and 3737'0.00"E) for the crash site, and found the S-200 positions in Google Earth (using Sean O'Connor's amazing SAM site overview from http://geimint.blogspot.com) at coordinates around N459.0' E035 44.0', which is a location of Ukrainian SAM firing range. Measuring the distance between these two points gives us whopping 362 kilometers. I wonder if this is a longest-range SAM shot ever?

And thanks for that little detail about S-200D, I always wondered if it has same power output as older versions or not. I wonder if more sophisticated missile trajectories were implemented as well, avoiding the overheating problem?

#3598272 - 06/27/12 06:19 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

I took the coordinates you have provided (4210'60.00"N and 3737'0.00"E) for the crash site, and found the S-200 positions in Google Earth (using Sean O'Connor's amazing SAM site overview from http://geimint.blogspot.com) at coordinates around N459.0' E035 44.0', which is a location of Ukrainian SAM firing range. Measuring the distance between these two points gives us whopping 362 kilometers. I wonder if this is a longest-range SAM shot ever?


Its around 300km for me, pretty long, but realistic shot.



Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3598274 - 06/27/12 06:20 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
[quote]

My humble opinion is the target drone was more than 80 km away (thus allows high profile of the missile path), both targets were in the same radial speed (like Hawkeye and Tomcat), and due to strongest return of the Tu-154, RSN stays locked to him, nobody checks time of the missile flight and the worst happens.... frown

A link:
http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2001/10/9/4363197/


I think that this version...
http://forum-msk.org/material/power/6789.html
...also have a right to exist. It claims that initial lock on target drone was lost, and, due to deficit of time, they re-acquired the target and fired in MHI mode, without switching to FKM, so they didn't knew that they re-acquired the wrong target. Also, a possibility is stated that the other S-200 battery might have illuminated the Tu-154 during their target acquisition practice, and missile locked on it.

#3598283 - 06/27/12 06:29 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

I took the coordinates you have provided (4210'60.00"N and 3737'0.00"E) for the crash site, and found the S-200 positions in Google Earth (using Sean O'Connor's amazing SAM site overview from http://geimint.blogspot.com) at coordinates around N459.0' E035 44.0', which is a location of Ukrainian SAM firing range. Measuring the distance between these two points gives us whopping 362 kilometers. I wonder if this is a longest-range SAM shot ever?


Its around 300km for me, pretty long, but realistic shot.




Ah... I think you mis-placed the S-200 battery, it was located near Feodosiya at Ukraine, not near Novorossiysk in Russia wave
I think it is located here:


This is what my measurements give:

#3598313 - 06/27/12 07:18 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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[quote=Hpasp
I would rather bet on misidentified target.
[/quote]
That's what I wrote many times. Regarding Vega operation it is just impossible.

I gave misleaded theory great chance - just to see if it is impossible in this way, then everything not so optimistic is impossible too.

PS: they should verify the target many times, especially the had to see its range.

#3598318 - 06/27/12 07:26 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Quote:
I think that this version...
http://forum-msk.org/material/power/6789.html
...also have a right to exist. It claims that initial lock on target drone was lost, and, due to deficit of time, they re-acquired the target and fired in MHI mode, without switching to FKM, so they didn't knew that they re-acquired the wrong target. Also, a possibility is stated that the other S-200 battery might have illuminated the Tu-154 during their target acquisition practice, and missile locked on it


How could they, to have AS RPC they should use FKM first...? Also they claimed they put 50 km range... think that the missile couldn't reach 300 km with "Program I" flight....

#3598324 - 06/27/12 07:29 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

I would rather bet on misidentified target.

That's what I wrote many times. Regarding Vega operation it is just impossible.

I gave misleaded theory great chance - just to see if it is impossible in this way, then everything not so optimistic is impossible too.

PS: they should verify the target many times, especially the had to see its range.


After the break-up of Soviet Union, qualification of military personnel have dramatically degraded...

Last edited by Lonewolf357; 06/27/12 07:30 PM.
#3598327 - 06/27/12 07:32 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

I would rather bet on misidentified target.

That's what I wrote many times. Regarding Vega operation it is just impossible.


Why do you think that?


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3598329 - 06/27/12 07:34 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79

How could they, to have AS RPC they should use FKM first...? Also they claimed they put 50 km range... think that the missile couldn't reach 300 km with "Program I" flight....


Yeah, there are inconsistencies... but the idea that Tu-154 and target drone could fly in a same narrow beam for long enough for missile to fly to 360 km doesn't look very plausible either...

#3598335 - 06/27/12 07:40 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Quote:
Yeah, there are inconsistencies... but the idea that Tu-154 and target drone could fly in a same narrow beam for long enough for missile to fly to 360 km doesn't look very plausible either...


It's not neccesary, just enough for RPC to lock on the signal of Tu-154...

#3598339 - 06/27/12 07:48 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Quote:
Yeah, there are inconsistencies... but the idea that Tu-154 and target drone could fly in a same narrow beam for long enough for missile to fly to 360 km doesn't look very plausible either...


It's not neccesary, just enough for RPC to lock on the signal of Tu-154...


But how?.. In FKM mode? And they didn't noticed the range?.. Or maybe they used IADS for range, allowing them to activate AS, and still fired in MHI mode, but locked on wrong target?..

#3598554 - 06/28/12 06:19 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Why do you think that?


Because it is so improbable (but that does not mean it can not happen either, I admit) to have both targets in the beam and all other conditions met. I also think it is misidentification and crew locked radat to the Tu plane and maybe under the stress did not notice its range.

In any case, that plane should not be there under any circumstances and SAM crew should repeatedly verify identification of the target using several methods (IFF, range, position, call to superordinates and so).

PS: 10 degrees IFF is an overkill, I don't understand why (and with such a lethal weapon).

Last edited by Alien_MasterMynd; 06/28/12 06:20 AM.
#3598563 - 06/28/12 07:22 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd

PS: 10 degrees IFF is an overkill, I don't understand why (and with such a lethal weapon).


It is the same with most of the integrated IFF systems.
IFF frequency is lower than of the Fire Control Radars, so if they use the same antenna, that the beam will be wider.
(Just physics.)


Hpasp
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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3598569 - 06/28/12 07:40 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

It is the same with most of the integrated IFF systems.
IFF frequency is lower than of the Fire Control Radars, so if they use the same antenna, that the beam will be wider.
(Just physics.)

This makes sense.

I thought they use a different antenna (with higher gain to have narrow beam) because of danger coming from S-200.

#3598606 - 06/28/12 10:03 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
How could they, to have AS RPC they should use FKM first...? Also they claimed they put 50 km range... think that the missile couldn't reach 300 km with "Program I" flight....


Here's a better question that I've always wanted to ask:

What prevents the S-200 from AS RPC using manually input range (without FKM)?

Crappy range manually input from playing w/ Rough Nonius, yes.
Ranges of unknown quality from target designation, yes.
Under jamming conditions, no range and no velocity, yes (now here's a sub-question, what's the difference, from the viewpoint of the RPC b/w AS-2ing off a jamming strobe and AS-2ing off a reflection? If none, why am I only permitted to AS-2 off a jamming strobe?)

Crappy range manually input from peeking at Tall King at the next console, NO?

Is something not logical here?

#3598615 - 06/28/12 10:42 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: arkhangelsk]  
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Originally Posted By: arkhangelsk
Originally Posted By: piston79
How could they, to have AS RPC they should use FKM first...? Also they claimed they put 50 km range... think that the missile couldn't reach 300 km with "Program I" flight....


Here's a better question that I've always wanted to ask:

What prevents the S-200 from AS RPC using manually input range (without FKM)?

Crappy range manually input from playing w/ Rough Nonius, yes.
Ranges of unknown quality from target designation, yes.
Under jamming conditions, no range and no velocity, yes (now here's a sub-question, what's the difference, from the viewpoint of the RPC b/w AS-2ing off a jamming strobe and AS-2ing off a reflection? If none, why am I only permitted to AS-2 off a jamming strobe?)

Crappy range manually input from peeking at Tall King at the next console, NO?

Is something not logical here?


Easiest answer is that Plamya use different program codes, for the different tasks.
(manual page 17)
Plamja-KV CVM (digital computer)
The digital computer has a 16bit processor, running at 64kHz frequency.
It has 256 bytes of RAM, and 4,096 bytes of ROM.
It has five built-in programs:
1. Idle
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is calculating the firing solution using the instantaneously available data from the RPC.
2. IADS target acquisition
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is interpolating the target's predicted position, between the 10Hz updates received from the IADS information.
3. Target tracking
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is continuously calculating the target's predicted path, and figuring the firing solution based on this information.
4. Tracking Jamming Target
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is calculating the firing solution using a manually preset target range. This mode is called AS-2.
5. Self Test


There might been simply no space left on that 4kbyte for an additional program with nuisance use, or nobody asked for it.
cowboy


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#3598628 - 06/28/12 11:09 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

It is the same with most of the integrated IFF systems.
IFF frequency is lower than of the Fire Control Radars, so if they use the same antenna, that the beam will be wider.
(Just physics.)

This makes sense.

I thought they use a different antenna (with higher gain to have narrow beam) because of danger coming from S-200.


Using different antenna is theoretically always an option, but than you could easily misalign these two (IFF and Fire Control Radar) in the field, and have the same problem of receiving IFF signals from a different target, than is in your boresight.
cowboy

Last edited by Hpasp; 06/28/12 11:12 AM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3599333 - 06/29/12 05:57 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Back to our investigations:
Click to reveal..
The sequence of events
At 13:44 local time airliner disappeared from radar screens Sochi dispatch service. The aircraft at that time was at an altitude of 11 kilometers, 200 kilometers south of the city of Sochi. At the same time, the pilot is in the same region of the AN-24 Armenian Airlines was briefed on an outbreak of him. The coordinates of the approximate location of the crash have been identified 42 11 's. sh. 37 37 'east. d (G), about 180 km from Novorossiysk. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the creation of a special commission on the causes of the accident. Go to the crash site immediately went to rescue ships and flew two aircraft and two helicopter rescue service in Sochi. The AN-12 discovered oil stains in the alleged crash site. Helicopters have found aircraft wreckage and the bodies of the dead passengers, floating on the surface.

Versions
In connection with the events of September 11, 2001 in New York was first proposed version of the attack. Almost immediately after the news of the disaster was closed in Tel Aviv Ben Gurion Airport, security service which began checking passenger lists Flight 1812. On the other hand, worked out version of an explosion on board the aircraft for technical reasons. However, the airline "Siberia," said the aircraft "was one of the best in the fleet of the company, he passed a rigorous inspection," and they "ran an experienced crew." A few hours later, a third version, based on the pilot's report of an outbreak of the Armenian plane, suggesting that the plane was struck from the outside, for example, shot down a missile defense. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksandr Kuzmuk denied the report, saying that this day is really planned teaching Ukrainian air defense forces, but they did not take place. Ukrainian version of the disaster was supported by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, U.S. intelligence officials interested in the incident is understandable, since the accident occurred less than a month after the events of September 11 in New York.

Investigation of accident
The basic version, which at first were inclined experts commission of inquiry into the incident - the attack. However, the version of the "Ukrainian trace" has received more and more evidence. Despite the denials of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, on the day of the disaster were carried out education firing air defense S-200 and C-300.
October 5 was reported found in the fuselage of the Tu-154 holes resembling bullet. And the head of the West Siberian Regional Office of the Air Transport Vladimir Tasun said that, "according to unverified information, the dispatcher on the locator saw a luminous point, quickly approaching aircraft. That's the only thing that is obtained from unofficial sources through the telephone company employees "Siberia" from Rostov. " The same day a Russian rescuers have joined rescue workers from Israel, as well as analysis of the negotiations was launched crew Tu-154 and analysis of video tapes, fixing radar readings. On this day, Prime Minister of Ukraine Anatoly Kinah has made a statement saying that the version of the hit missiles in Tu-154 of airline "Siberia", "has a right to exist."

October 6, Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo said at the scene were found items not related to the design of the aircraft and that "there was the destruction of the aircraft as a result of the defeat of an explosive nature."

October 7 According to the Commission, 13:45:12 overland tape was recorded screaming the Tu-154 pilot.

October 9 According to the Commission, the analysis of holes in the fuselage shows that the plane could have been struck by a missile defense complex S-200 as well as the size and shape of the holes are consistent with shrapnel high-explosive fragmentation warhead missiles of this particular complex.

October 11 Rushailo announced withdrawal of the technical commission that investigated the causes of the crash of Tu-154. "Multiple injuries in the form of similar holes speak of the defeat of the Russian aircraft from the outside."

October 12 Press Secretary to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Konstantin Hivrenko, commenting on the preliminary results of investigation of the incident, admitted that the Ukrainian missile could have caused the death of Tu-154.

October 13 Rushailo stated that the analysis of the wreckage and holes, anti-aircraft missile exploded 15 meters of the aircraft. Ukrainian Defense Minister at a conference in Kiev, apologized to the families and friends of those killed in the crash of the Russian Tu-154. "We know that the tragedy involved, although the reasons for the end is not installed."

The causes of the tragedy
The complex S-200 uses a semi-active guidance system, when the radiation source is a powerful ground-based radar ("illumination purposes"), and the missile itself is guided by the signal reflected from the target. During the shooting with Defence of Ukraine, which took place October 4, 2001 at Cape Opuk in the Crimea, the missile "lost" a little learning goal, as a result of the guidance system was switched to a much more significant, though more remote, the liner. Size of polygon does not provide a safe shooting range air defense missile system. Necessary steps to release the organizers of the airspace firings were not taken.


There are a lot of versions about coordinates of the disaster:





Also, there is a doubt about the version, mainly that the RPN must be very low on horizont, if the aircraft was more than 300 km away...

Last edited by piston79; 06/29/12 07:02 PM.
#3599757 - 06/30/12 08:00 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Back to our investigations:

There are a lot of versions about coordinates of the disaster:


The Tu-154 was flying on the airway B145: http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20011004-0
This is an extract from 2004 navigation chart. It shows airway B145 in relation to the area's geography, with coordinates of waypoints. The plane's position during its destruction was somewhere along that airway:

Added: the Ukrainian missile range is in left part of the map, its restricted airspace is designated as areas marked as UK Dxxx (three digits).

P. S.: 42-11 37-37 doesn't appear to be realistic - it's not on that airway.


Last edited by Lonewolf357; 06/30/12 08:19 PM.
#3599973 - 07/01/12 07:35 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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That's even closer... ODIRA - 42 42'6 36 59'4... About 265 km. at that point (which is the furthest point from the flight route from the Opuk).


Last edited by piston79; 07/01/12 07:39 AM.
#3599997 - 07/01/12 09:50 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
That's even closer... ODIRA - 42 42'6 36 59'4... About 265 km. at that point (which is the furthest point from the flight route from the Opuk).



Yeah, looks like shot was possible even for S-200V... Still unclear about the high/low missile profile, though.

#3600006 - 07/01/12 10:51 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
Originally Posted By: piston79
That's even closer... ODIRA - 42 42'6 36 59'4... About 265 km. at that point (which is the furthest point from the flight route from the Opuk).
Click to reveal..



Yeah, looks like shot was possible even for S-200V... Still unclear about the high/low missile profile, though.


What is the furthest point of the firing zone, from the Vega?


Hpasp
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#3600011 - 07/01/12 11:17 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Quote:
What is the furthest point of the firing zone, from the Vega?


This appeared to be the furthest point from the air route from the VEGA site on Opuk - ODIRA point, which is the beginning of the B-145 air route (which crosed the shore just over Tuapse).

Last edited by piston79; 07/01/12 11:28 AM.
#3600022 - 07/01/12 11:43 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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The aircraft didn't spawn at ODIRA though - there is another leg that leads from the departure to ODIRA... because the flightplan included B145 ODIRA onwards doesn't absolutely confirm that the aircraft was that far along, or actually in the correct lateral position.

#3600034 - 07/01/12 12:08 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Still looking for any maps of full B-145 (if there is any before ODIRA), but still nothing...

Here:

с200 по &a...p;#1085;26.djvu

S-200 AS against IL-76/AN-26...

Shortly, good AS against IL-76 on 9 - 10 km, 0 to 3 km Parameter is achieved on 302.00 km with dewiation at about +-20 km... Tu-16 has smaller RCS, compared to the Il-76 (which could be comparable to Tu-154), so the S-200 kill version seems a bit imposible before ODIRA point...

Last edited by piston79; 10/15/13 07:24 PM.
#3600044 - 07/01/12 12:36 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Unfortunately, i don't have Turkish navigation charts from that period, and entire route system has been completely revised by now, so modern maps are useless. I will try to find something though.

ADDED: The earliest I could get is dated by 2006, and there is no guarantee that there were no changes between 2001 and 2006. However, due to this, there are two airways leading to ODIRA intersection from the south: the UW99 and UW96. The UW96 is out of the question, since it leads to the wrong direction, so I'd say that UW99 is the most probable one. The chart fragment is attached below. However it should be noted here: the airways on Turkish side have different designations, so B145 is actually starts at ODIRA, so if sources claim that it is flew along B145, this means that it already passed ODIRA. Also, ODIRA is a point where Turkish air traffic control handles over aircraft to Russian, and we know, that Russian controllers handled the aircraft at the moment of its destruction. Regarding the "lateral deviation": in Russian airspace it is EXTREMELY uncommon for the airliner to fly elsewhere but directly alongside airway, which width is no more than 20 km - 10 km to either side.


Last edited by Lonewolf357; 07/01/12 01:22 PM.
#3600066 - 07/01/12 01:30 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

What is the furthest point of the firing zone, from the Vega?


287 km from known S-200 position to ODIRA and about 260 km to the closest point of the airway. However, Piston79's calculations show Vega located at different location, closer to the shore. I'm not sure where it was actually located, however the only S-200 positions visible in Google Earth at that area are located at coordinates that I'm using for my calculations, at N45 09' 04" E035 43' 41".

#3600079 - 07/01/12 02:09 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Still looking for any maps of full B-145 (if there is any before ODIRA), but still nothing...

Here:

с200 по &a...p;#1085;26.djvu

S-200 AS against IL-76/AN-26...

Shortly, good AS against IL-76 on 9 - 10 km, 0 to 3 km Parameter is achieved on 302.00 km with dewiation at about +-20 km... Tu-16 has smaller RCS, compared to the Tu-16 (which could be comparable to Tu-154), so the S-200 kill version seems a bit imposible before ODIRA point...


The strongest contributors to RCS are engines, so Tu-154, with three of them, should be somewhere between Tu-16 and Il-76. Strictly my IMHO.

#3600082 - 07/01/12 02:23 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
Originally Posted By: piston79
Still looking for any maps of full B-145 (if there is any before ODIRA), but still nothing...

Here:

с200 по &a...p;#1085;26.djvu

S-200 AS against IL-76/AN-26...

Shortly, good AS against IL-76 on 9 - 10 km, 0 to 3 km Parameter is achieved on 302.00 km with dewiation at about +-20 km... Tu-16 has smaller RCS, compared to the Tu-16 (which could be comparable to Tu-154), so the S-200 kill version seems a bit imposible before ODIRA point...


The strongest contributors to RCS are engines, so Tu-154, with three of them, should be somewhere between Tu-16 and Il-76. Strictly my IMHO.


I would guess the Tu-154 RCS around 42sqrm.
That gives 280km of 10dB lockon range for the GSN...
eek2


Hpasp
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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3600127 - 07/01/12 04:00 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

287 km from known S-200 position to ODIRA and about 260 km to the closest point of the airway. However, Piston79's calculations show Vega located at different location, closer to the shore. I'm not sure where it was actually located, however the only S-200 positions visible in Google Earth at that area are located at coordinates that I'm using for my calculations, at N45 09' 04" E035 43' 41".


The info I found was is that they fired from Opuk firing range. What I found that Opuk was a small mountain (about 187 m above sea level), and I believed that they put their temporary position on the top or next to this mountain. Of course they probably fired from Feodosia site. So, if we accepted 280 km stable AS for Tu-154, and 3 and a half minute missile flight (which is about 240-50 km), and it's resulting in a 60-63 km of flight distance for Tu-154 (which is not so important, due to huge parameter) it makes the situation plausable. Still, for me remains a mystery how they never measured the distance and didn't check the missile flight time...

Lonewolf, could we check where was the "witness" - armenian AN? Probably B-143 route?

Last edited by piston79; 07/01/12 04:19 PM.
#3600134 - 07/01/12 04:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
Unfortunately, i don't have Turkish navigation charts from that period, and entire route system has been completely revised by now, so modern maps are useless. I will try to find something though.

ADDED: The earliest I could get is dated by 2006, and there is no guarantee that there were no changes between 2001 and 2006.


I have a Jeppensen chart dated 1995, somewhere in the attic...
... I will try to find it tomorrow.
biggrin


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3600145 - 07/01/12 04:48 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

287 km from known S-200 position to ODIRA and about 260 km to the closest point of the airway. However, Piston79's calculations show Vega located at different location, closer to the shore. I'm not sure where it was actually located, however the only S-200 positions visible in Google Earth at that area are located at coordinates that I'm using for my calculations, at N45 09' 04" E035 43' 41".


The info I found was is that they fired from Opuk firing range. What I found that Opuk was a small mountain (about 187 m above sea level), and I believed that they put their temporary position on the top or next to this mountain. Of course they probably fired from Feodosia site. So, if we accepted 280 km stable AS for Tu-154, and 3 and a half minute missile flight (which is about 240-50 km), and it's resulting in a 60-63 km of flight distance for Tu-154 (which is not so important, due to huge parameter) it makes the situation plausable. Still, for me remains a mystery how they never measured the distance and didn't check the missile flight time...

Lonewolf, could we check where was the "witness" - armenian AN? Probably B-143 route?


Don't you use the Sean O'Connor's "SAM Site Overview"?.. frown You are missing a LOT! Get it from here http://geimint.blogspot.com/ and open with Google Earth, you will get thousands of SAMs all over the world. It clearly shows the Opuk range and its S-200 positions, although the marker is displaced for about 1200 meters to the east. There is no other S-200 positions in the area, so I suppose it was actual firing position in our case. The S-200 is ain't mobile system, like S-300, so I don't think they used some temporary position. Strictly my IMHO.

Regarding AS range, I guess that primary problem is getting those 25 decibels of received signal, necessary for the missile to home onto it, not AS range itself. However, since we are now operating more accurate info, I'd say that such a shot was certainly possible.

Regarding Armenian An-24 - too much time has passed, we could hardly find any info now. It could be anywhere, even on the same B145, flying same direction behind and lower than Tupolev, or flying opposite direction towards it.

#3600188 - 07/01/12 06:26 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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All on Ukrainian:
sigh

http://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/18475097

Here azimuths from KP and S-200 site:


And those are some of the materials from the court:

http://www.mediafire.com/?jwly7c6gm0md6dy sigh

#3600209 - 07/01/12 07:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
All on Ukrainian:
sigh

http://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/18475097

Here azimuths from KP and S-200 site:


And those are some of the materials from the court:

http://www.mediafire.com/?jwly7c6gm0md6dy sigh


WOW!!! These are priceless!!! Thumbs up for Piston79!!! thumbsup These court documents have it all!!! It looks like Ukraine is really playing in European league, if court documents can be found in the open access on the net... In our country they would be kept under lock with no access for anyone but few...

I must admit that I was wrong about the S-200 position, they really fired from temporary position at N45 03' 48" E36 05' 07". The plane's position lies directly on B145 airway.

Last edited by Lonewolf357; 07/01/12 07:32 PM.
#3600212 - 07/01/12 07:32 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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What are the coordinates of the KP and ZRK sites?

It looks as if all three are on similar bearings, with reasonable crossing angle and very similar range from angular separations at a first cut (ZRK to east of Feodosia, KP to the SW near one of the capes)...

Also - the Tel-Aviv to 'ODIVA' track is nearly due north, so the UW99 seems more likely as entry.

#3600423 - 07/02/12 04:36 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
All on Ukrainian:
sigh

http://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/18475097

Here azimuths from KP and S-200 site:
Click to reveal..


And those are some of the materials from the court:

http://www.mediafire.com/?jwly7c6gm0md6dy sigh


Extremely good find, it even has the launch photo...



The finger of the Firing Officer is on the IFF button...

... and the plotting board:


grunt

Last edited by Hpasp; 07/02/12 06:17 AM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3600496 - 07/02/12 08:02 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Hello guys, your findings are awesome thumbsup

PS: regarding the launch photo, there is RSSI of 40dB. It was S-200D, but is it possible for Tu-154 in that distance?

#3600507 - 07/02/12 08:30 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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As I looked on the flight path (the jpg picture), it looks like they really locked on the Tu-154, practice target was about 32km far.

PS: there is S-200V notice on it....


#3600759 - 07/02/12 06:23 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Still have that question about what the azimuths from KP and ZRK represent. Each has an identical 14 degree 'intersection' and are within a similar bearing ~ I'm having a hard time making sense of the difference with ranges of ~32km and 200+km... the only way that would make much sense would be if there was a co-location and a systematic 14 degree error between the two readings - which is far outside of what seems reasonable for a correctly calibrated system.

I can cope with small quantities of Russian text, but can't realistically wade through each paragraph of the entire document in Ukrainian looking for subtleties of meaning, so there might be more questions as I nibble my way further in.

#3601063 - 07/03/12 10:16 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
I can cope with small quantities of Russian text, but can't realistically wade through each paragraph of the entire document in Ukrainian looking for subtleties of meaning, so there might be more questions as I nibble my way further in.


Maybe we can split the documents between us and true Google Translator we can pull up some information, we could share here...

Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd



This is a flight path of the missile, which as I got it right, was ABOVE traffic controler radars for most of the time (when above 20 km altitude). Maybe it is about statements of ground controlers about fast moving object toward Tu-154.

Last edited by piston79; 07/03/12 10:26 AM.
#3601086 - 07/03/12 11:21 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Yes, but why missile flew this way when should be locked to the target 32km far? Plamja uploads flight program selection to missile, so I do not understand it. Especially when I take launch photo into account - 40db for a (large) target 250km far?

#3601458 - 07/04/12 12:20 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Yes, but why missile flew this way when should be locked to the target 32km far? Plamja uploads flight program selection to missile, so I do not understand it. Especially when I take launch photo into account - 40db for a (large) target 250km far?


The graph was made by the Interstate Aviation Committee. The 03a md-expert findings20100521.pdf document contains testimony from court expert witnesses refuting the IAC's claims. They state that the missile trajectory, in the horizontal (p. 17) and vertical planes, does not correspond to how the 5V28 actually operates.

They also note that the VR-3 was shot down by an S-300PS at 12:42, followed by the shutdown of the 5N62 at 12:42:20, which was long before the supposed Tu-154 destruction time of 12:45:00.

#3601546 - 07/04/12 05:13 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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So...If what they said is true, then whatever's left, however unlikely, has now become more than likely:

The missile, albeit unguided and somehow still armed in a highly unlikely combination of events, still managed to get to the wrong place at the wrong time.

Or slightly more likely, someone else has illuminated the Tu-154 at some time during the missile's flight. Or the Tu-154 has somehow pulled the speed gate from the drone onto itself.

...God knows.

#3601579 - 07/04/12 08:11 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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Originally Posted By: PLCC

The graph was made by the Interstate Aviation Committee. The 03a md-expert findings20100521.pdf document contains testimony from court expert witnesses refuting the IAC's claims. They state that the missile trajectory, in the horizontal (p. 17) and vertical planes, does not correspond to how the 5V28 actually operates.

They also note that the VR-3 was shot down by an S-300PS at 12:42, followed by the shutdown of the 5N62 at 12:42:20, which was long before the supposed Tu-154 destruction time of 12:45:00.


Yes, we all should know the missile climbs to the height, and then slowly descends to optimize energy loss and is heading to the target. And probably above 20km it is only some approximation since that radar is limited to 20km in height. This is not a question.
The question is why missile flew with a long distance flight program when the target should be 32km far. And the missile had to fly using this program because in the other case it would not (under any ciscumstances) get that far (about its maximum range).

#3601582 - 07/04/12 08:15 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: JWNoctis]  
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Originally Posted By: JWNoctis
Or the Tu-154 has somehow pulled the speed gate from the drone onto itself.

How, when the operation of 5N62 ceased three minutes before impact?

Was there another 5N62 in the vicinity of the firing battery which could illuminate the Tu-154? So how the missile could travel about 150km+ with no target signal and even fortunately get to the extreme vicinity of the Tu-154 to be in radiofuse range and close enough for warhead to destroy it?

#3601584 - 07/04/12 08:22 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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Originally Posted By: PLCC
They also note that the VR-3 was shot down by an S-300PS at 12:42, followed by the shutdown of the 5N62 at 12:42:20, which was long before the supposed Tu-154 destruction time of 12:45:00.


This is another mystery. Why both batteries (S-200 and S-300) fired at the same target? It is clear that one missile would destroy it sooner and the second one could make some accidental damage.

#3601592 - 07/04/12 09:27 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Hello guys, your findings are awesome thumbsup

PS: regarding the launch photo, there is RSSI of 40dB. It was S-200D, but is it possible for Tu-154 in that distance?


If you check the picture...
Click to reveal..


... you can see the following:

- 40dB signal strength.
- 500km display range. (Target is pretty close)
- H indicator is set to 5km altitude. (Target between 1~2km altitude)
- Target is in destruction zone, closer than 38km (against low targets).


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3601596 - 07/04/12 09:39 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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Originally Posted By: PLCC
Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Yes, but why missile flew this way when should be locked to the target 32km far? Plamja uploads flight program selection to missile, so I do not understand it. Especially when I take launch photo into account - 40db for a (large) target 250km far?


The graph was made by the Interstate Aviation Committee. The 03a md-expert findings20100521.pdf document contains testimony from court expert witnesses refuting the IAC's claims. They state that the missile trajectory, in the horizontal (p. 17) and vertical planes, does not correspond to how the 5V28 actually operates.


That is correct.
The missile of the S-200VE is going up with 48degree to 40km altitude, then slowly (with Mach6) glides down.

This graph is rather depicts the ballistic path of an S-300PM missile.


Last edited by Hpasp; 07/04/12 09:43 AM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3601597 - 07/04/12 09:42 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: JWNoctis]  
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Originally Posted By: JWNoctis
So...If what they said is true, then whatever's left, however unlikely, has now become more than likely:

The missile, albeit unguided and somehow still armed in a highly unlikely combination of events, still managed to get to the wrong place at the wrong time.

Or slightly more likely, someone else has illuminated the Tu-154 at some time during the missile's flight. Or the Tu-154 has somehow pulled the speed gate from the drone onto itself.

...God knows.


Negative.
nope

The target should have illuminated by the same RPC where the missile belonged.
Without the illumination, the radio proxy fuse of the missile is not working.
(its also semi active)


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3601603 - 07/04/12 10:20 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp


... you can see the following:

- 40dB signal strength.
- 500km display range. (Target is pretty close)
- H indicator is set to 5km altitude. (Target between 1~2km altitude)
- Target is in destruction zone, closer than 38km (against low targets).

Yes, so I do not understand what happened :-(

It's what I wrote on a previous page:
Yes, we all should know the missile climbs to the height, and then slowly descends to optimize energy loss and is heading to the target. And probably above 20km it is only some approximation since that radar is limited to 20km in height. This is not a question.
The question is why missile flew with a long distance flight program when the target should be 32km far. And the missile had to fly using this program because in the other case it would not (under any ciscumstances) get that far (about its maximum range).

#3601604 - 07/04/12 10:27 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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There are a lot of denials of S-200 kill shot version in the .pdf mentioned couple posts ago even experts told that distance (~250 km), the missile should miss with hundred meters....

By the way an offtopic link on russian, but it is good to knew it:

http://hubara-rus.ru/kavkaz.html

#3601609 - 07/04/12 10:38 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Why should miss with a such distance? Since it has semiactive homing, it should be guided to target (almost) independently of its distance to radar.

#3601611 - 07/04/12 10:53 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Why should miss with a such distance? Since it has semiactive homing, it should be guided to target (almost) independently of its distance to radar.


Because of the huge RCS of Tu-154, it's return signal goes outside the GSN antena and AS is going off (if I got it right with mine ukrainian...).

HEY, IS THERE AN UKRAINIAN????? HELP, PLEASE!!!! rant-on-off

#3601621 - 07/04/12 11:40 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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I translated bits of information using google and there is this information: VR-3 had doppler speed of 250m/s and Tu-154 about 130-140m/s.
So it is impossible to track both of them simultaneously (either by RPC or GSN), because RPC has bandwidth of 200Hz and GSN 400Hz (250m/s is 12,5kHz and 130m/s is about 6,5kHz so the difference is about 6kHz and it obviously do not fall into 200Hz or 400Hz range).
But what is not stated there what if the target is still illuminated.
12:42 VR-3 is destroyed by S-300PS.
S-200 crew may not know it and their AS is lost. So they try to reacquire it, they see the Tu-154's return (as I remeber it was about 14 degrees away in azimuth). They lock it, the are in a hurry, they do not want to lose the missile and fail the test.
So they can ignore RSSI indicator, but the required change in distance is something they should see.
So GSN is looking for the target, wide beam mode should see signal from Tu-154 and it goes back to AS mode.

This sounds reasonable, BUT - missile is not on the trajectory allowing such a long flight. So it is unexplainable again :-(

PS: their P-18 indicator was set to 90km distance so they did not know what is going on outside this range. But why they had a P-18 instead of a P-14? It does not have any effect on situation, but I would like to know.

#3601658 - 07/04/12 01:35 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
...
PS: their P-18 indicator was set to 90km distance so they did not know what is going on outside this range. But why they had a P-18 instead of a P-14? It does not have any effect on situation, but I would like to know.


Moving the P-18 into a temporary firing range position is much less pain, compared to the P-14.
(P-18 range was more than the target drone)

It would also mean, that the "X" screen was black during the engagement...


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3601679 - 07/04/12 02:20 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
Moving the P-18 into a temporary firing range position is much less pain, compared to the P-14.
(P-18 range was more than the target drone)

It would also mean, that the "X" screen was black during the engagement...


Thanks.

The latter is obvious thumbsup

#3631492 - 08/23/12 04:59 PM Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens?  
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Hi, guys!

I wish to continue with analyzing of the S-200V version of downing the "syberia"-s Tu-154M.
First I would ask the moderator to transfer all posts here. They started from this page:
http://simhq.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/3599333/335.html

My plan is to use google earth and information we managed to got from the net, and created a picture of the happening, also discussing some expert statements in the court. Maybe one day Hpasp could use his SIM like an investigation tool, and we would be able to see how it looks like from the "Vega"'s vans...

I hope Lieste an Lonewolf would participate firmly in this topic! wink

#3632323 - 08/25/12 12:55 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Done. If you all find more posts on this topic in the old topic, PM me with their locations and I will transfer them here as well.

BTW, Piston79, thanks. This got five pages out of the old thread without me having to try and scratch my head and figure our where to put them. It was a big help.

Last edited by Cat; 08/25/12 01:18 AM.

Miao, Cat
#3632961 - 08/26/12 12:31 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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While I was trying to recreate the same situation that was captured on the CONTROL PHOTO, I found something extremely important.

Original CONTROL PHOTO, attached to the official inquiry material.
(I do not want to suggest, that this photo is manipulated in any way...)


Here is the state what I tried to reproduced in the SAMSIM. (SU-22 over Hungary, @ range of 60km, flying at 2km alt)



Something is extreemly unnatural at this picture, and I would like to encourage you to try to recreate it, to find it out yourselves the problem, what I see here, about the state of this Vega SAM complex...

Last edited by Hpasp; 08/26/12 12:41 PM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3632971 - 08/26/12 12:55 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Something is extreemly unnatural at this picture, and I would like to encourage you to try to recreate it, to find it out yourselves the problem, what I see here, about the state of this Vega SAM complex...


At first looks like Tu-143 "Reis" has 40dB return signal, and Su-22 - about 30 dB. Of course, "Reis" could have a lens on it...



Max altitude for the Tu-143 is stated for about 1100 m. (but it is for the UAV, not the target variant).

Last edited by piston79; 08/26/12 02:03 PM.
#3633053 - 08/26/12 04:26 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Something is extreemly unnatural at this picture, and I would like to encourage you to try to recreate it, to find it out yourselves the problem, what I see here, about the state of this Vega SAM complex...


Max altitude for the Tu-143 is stated for about 1100 m. (but it is for the UAV, not the target variant).


Just check the instrument at right.
Its just below 2km.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3633098 - 08/26/12 05:44 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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But if it was "Reis-D" (Tu-243) - it goes up to 5000 m.
http://aviaros.narod.ru/tu-143.htm

EDIT:
In court dociments they mentioned BP-3 (Tu-143)!!!


Last edited by piston79; 12/24/12 11:41 AM.
#3633151 - 08/26/12 08:54 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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The only thing I notice at the first look, is the "calculated impact point". In the original photo it is much closer to the battery than in the simulator photo. But that's just a guess...

Last edited by xxJohnxx; 08/26/12 09:06 PM.
#3633322 - 08/27/12 06:26 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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i read all of this topic .... it is my personally idea about this happend
maybe could we say that's a Human Error


because when iff said wrongly (i am your target) sam crew have to check target DB!
i belive 100 per 100 sam crew can analyze and know why one little training aircraft from long range should send high DB....!!!!

50% IFF error and 50% human error

Last edited by milang; 08/27/12 07:52 AM.
#3633361 - 08/27/12 10:06 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Hpasp: I also tried Su-22 over Hungary (2000m, 500km/h). I got nearly 40dB when it was about 80km far.

#3633362 - 08/27/12 10:15 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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The information we had:
1. Air navigation map (thanks to Lonewolf)
2. BIP scheme (from the court materials)
3. Position of the S-200V site.
4. Tu-143 flight path
5. Tu-154M approximate RCS (thanks to Hpasp).

What is still unclear:
1. Time and place of the crash (some different time stamps and locations where stated into the documents).
2. RCS of the Tu-143 (did they used lens, or used it "clear").

Any suggestions how to mix all this in a 3D AAR-like picture? I knew with photoshop could be layered one over another those pics/maps and we could try to extract some flight path coordinates (pretty approximately indeed). Pity, I cannot work with Photoshop, and need help a bit... Also is there a way to put those in Google Earth directly, aany ideas (or it is not needed, due to little effect of earth curvative effect for such a distance)???

Also, we have some expertizes, which needed to be explained (tech stuff about the missile and radars), so anyone could join with help (the best would be a ukrainian PVO specialist wink )...

#3633397 - 08/27/12 12:44 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Just look at this photo...



... now all Vega simulator fans should clap on his forehead, and say "$#%*, this Vega SAM system is in ... mode"!!!

Even I missed this piece of critical information earlier...
banghead

Last edited by Hpasp; 08/27/12 12:53 PM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3633415 - 08/27/12 01:38 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
The information we had:
1. Air navigation map (thanks to Lonewolf)
2. BIP scheme (from the court materials)
3. Position of the S-200V site.
4. Tu-143 flight path
5. Tu-154M approximate RCS (thanks to Hpasp).

What is still unclear:
1. Time and place of the crash (some different time stamps and locations where stated into the documents).
2. RCS of the Tu-143 (did they used lens, or used it "clear").

Any suggestions how to mix all this in a 3D AAR-like picture? I knew with photoshop could be layered one over another those pics/maps and we could try to extract some flight path coordinates (pretty approximately indeed). Pity, I cannot work with Photoshop, and need help a bit... Also is there a way to put those in Google Earth directly, aany ideas (or it is not needed, due to little effect of earth curvative effect for such a distance)???

Also, we have some expertizes, which needed to be explained (tech stuff about the missile and radars), so anyone could join with help (the best would be a ukrainian PVO specialist wink )...


It is described here, how to insert an image overlay into Google Earth:
https://developers.google.com/earth/documentation/geometries#groundoverlay

Last edited by Hpasp; 08/27/12 01:38 PM.

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(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3633418 - 08/27/12 01:42 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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jawdrop
5N62 is not locked on the target, else there should be a circle! It is only pointing at the target so the upper display shows received signal, but it has not been acquired yet.
So they may have acqiured the target after IFF check (!), but in reality it would be the poor Tu-154 and everything else is known....

Hpasp, you probably solved the incident thumbsup

#3633631 - 08/27/12 07:43 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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1. The overlay pctures over Google Earth, they should be transparent, I believe...
2. it's possible to use IFF BEFORE AS-3, right?

#3633875 - 08/28/12 06:13 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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ad 2 - I think it is possible, because 5N62 sees its target. And that's probably the reason - they found the target, did not lock 5N62 on it, made IFF check and took the photo.
But in the meantime (because they have not AS) their target went off the 5N62 beam, maybe Tu-154 came into it (but not necessarily), they found out they had no AS, so they reacquired the target, started AS (both in speed and in distance) and launched the missile.
But nobody realized (hurry, stress, lack of time, they did not want to fail during test) they acquired a different target.

#3634187 - 08/28/12 07:23 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

It is described here, how to insert an image overlay into Google Earth:
https://developers.google.com/earth/documentation/geometries#groundoverlay


Definitely far beyound my skills... sigh

This should be the BIP in Command Post... Where it was located, does anyone noticed?
Click to reveal..

#3636296 - 09/01/12 05:29 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Here, I've just played with some pictures. I am in procces to receive a better image of the BIP, so no need to make it transparent, and than will overlay it again...

http://www.mediafire.com/?fucmjym293l2tmg
"BIPoverMAP" is the BIP image,calibrated with 150 km lines from east to the west and north to the south.
"NavigationMap" is a flight navigation map, which was calibrated over some root points:
AMDUS;ODIRA;ALUSHTA and GORNU.
It appears that the error is about 5 to 10 km from map to google earth points.
At first glance it is obviouse that Tu-154 is pretty far from any root, at least on the BIP...
"M" poinst are where wreckedges were found. Black sea water currents are from east to west at this area, so, it looks like the root on BIP is right:




Last edited by piston79; 09/01/12 05:37 PM.
#3637382 - 09/03/12 03:52 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Nice work!
thumbsup

I think, that the NavigationMap should be moved approx 10km to NW.
Alushta and Jalta NDB should be on ground?

PS: Here is a transparent PNG of the Blotting Board...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?m8x99tds6sut05e

Last edited by Hpasp; 09/03/12 04:09 PM.

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Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3637405 - 09/03/12 04:25 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
Nice work!
thumbsup

..For a dumb amateur... banghead Anyway, thanks for the suport...

Quote:
I think, that the NavigationMap should be moved approx 10km to NW.
Alushta and Jalta NDB should be on ground?


I was wondering how to strech it - using shore line or true navigation points... screwy I
Thought at least in the event zone it's quite matched... I am open (and desperately needed) for advices and help, so don't be shine, dear forum mates! wink

Quote:
PS: Here is a transparent PNG of the Blotting Board...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?m8x99tds6sut05e


Thanks! I just received another one from my friend, will check which one is better.... If find enough time I'll add the Gelendzhik air trafic controll radar position (coordinates are in the court documents), then will give a try for some ".gpx"-es, who knows? wink

#3637409 - 09/03/12 04:30 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
... If find enough time I'll add the Gelendzhik air trafic controll radar position (coordinates are in the court documents), then will give a try for some ".gpx"-es, who knows? wink


gpx is easy.

Just give me the coordinates/elevation/timestamp for all participants.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3637464 - 09/03/12 05:29 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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I think the plotting board is ... horribly inaccurate.

With a reasonable assumption of Azimuthal Equidistant as a suitable projection (after all it is a direct ranging device from a fixed point), I re-projected SRTM height data as an underlay.

The coast lines don't agree to any reasonable approximation when fixing the range rings to be at 50km major intervals from a position on land. The apparent origin is some 5-10km offshore, and worse the scale is still wrong for true distances/scale for the major land-masses, particularly in the Anapa direction, where the coast should project strongly southwards (with high ground) after approximately 2/3 of the extant coast line.

While this is perhaps not the most important aspect of the situation it does raise questions about how reliable any of the range/bearing information presented is.

#3637474 - 09/03/12 05:41 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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As ploating board is used for hand writing, it is sure that the coastal line is drown by hand with certain error... Also the target marks ussualy are not on the earth but in the air, so it presents the slant range (don't know how to do it in google earth), so it generates some error...
I believe the bigger problem is the air navigation map, it is not matching over the google earth coordinates very well... Could it be because the earth curvative effect?

#3637510 - 09/03/12 06:17 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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I haven't got to the A/N chart yet. I'm using GIS so re-projecting should be accurate, rather than attempting to overlay what may be differing projections as images.

Do you have the original image (with the metadata required for reprojection? Usually marginal notes.)

#3637564 - 09/03/12 07:11 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste

Do you have the original image (with the metadata required for reprojection? Usually marginal notes.)


That's all what I've got:
Click to reveal..








But I didn't get your idea (those shortnames and my pour english bothers me a lot...) frown

Last edited by piston79; 09/03/12 07:17 PM.
#3637879 - 09/04/12 05:02 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Don't worry, your English isn't poor, and I'm able to use what you have (though quality is poor and I'm doubtful of results).

Someone check my maths, but I get a surface 'drop' of 4900m over 250km, so the airlane height of 11,112m is 6212m above a horizontal plane at sea level (worst case). This means that a 250km slant range is practically indistinguishable from a 250km 'flat' range ~ the difference being more significant for shorter ranges and higher elevation angles.

With these, the plotted Tu154 is over 20km beyond the nominal track of Odira ~ and I'd be surprised by such a large discrepancy in Soviet airspace? The terrain in actuality (SRTM) doesn't match well with either the Air/Navigation chart, nor the plotting board representation, although coordinates recorded are aligned across the multiple documents. Other tracks are similarly displaced further than the route would suggest.

The initial impression is one of sloppy calibration and practices, although that might be harsh, as they did successfully engage an airborne target with a single round.


#3638330 - 09/04/12 07:40 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
Someone check my maths, but I get a surface 'drop' of 4900m over 250km, so the airlane height of 11,112m is 6212m above a horizontal plane at sea level (worst case). This means that a 250km slant range is practically indistinguishable from a 250km 'flat' range ~ the difference being more significant for shorter ranges and higher elevation angles.


The distance at which Tu-154 was fire upon was 270 km, which results in about 5 720 meters, which results in a 5392 meters above horizont on 270 km distance i.e. about 1.14 degrees elevation...

For the target (BP-3) - 38 km distance against 1.8 km height, it appears 2.7 degrees elevation, still the target should be tracked at heigh 1 - 1.5 km which results in the same angle like Tu-154M !



Originally Posted By: Lieste

With these, the plotted Tu154 is over 20km beyond the nominal track of Odira ~ and I'd be surprised by such a large discrepancy in Soviet airspace? The terrain in actuality (SRTM) doesn't match well with either the Air/Navigation chart, nor the plotting board representation, although coordinates recorded are aligned across the multiple documents. Other tracks are similarly displaced further than the route would suggest.


Not sure the navigation map was the same at 2001... Should find a way to check it... On the other side, wreckages were found on points M1...M3, which is just on the B145 root!
Also the Armenian AN-26 crew stated that near nav. point Rabbit, on 30-40 degrees left, they saw flash and white smoke cloud.


By the way, the non-locked SA-5 on the picture - in court documents it is stated that it was done just before the launch, but RPN was not locked!!!
GREAT HPASP WE HAD HERE!!! thumbsup

Last edited by piston79; 09/23/12 11:55 AM.
#3638441 - 09/04/12 10:07 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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It isn't 270km, it is plotted as 260-240km between pts 41-44, according to the plotting board. (280km at t=38 however ~ is there a significance to the 'lost' track for 39, 40?)

The calibrated re-projected 'routemaps' are correct, the 'surface range' rings are good for close in at low altitude and at all altitudes at long range (minimal difference in slant range for max and min height tgt at 250km).
These are projected at 50km, 100km, 200km and 250km on the image over the "azimuthal equidistant" projection. The plotting board range rings are then conformed to these fixed ranges by re-projecting the (somewhat distorted) plotting board image. The yellow line is over 20km long and joins the 'plotted ranges' to the ODIRA route for the t=41 bearing from the radar site.

#3638752 - 09/05/12 10:48 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
It isn't 270km, it is plotted as 260-240km between pts 41-44, according to the plotting board. (280km at t=38 however ~ is there a significance to the 'lost' track for 39, 40?)

The calibrated re-projected 'routemaps' are correct, the 'surface range' rings are good for close in at low altitude and at all altitudes at long range (minimal difference in slant range for max and min height tgt at 250km).
These are projected at 50km, 100km, 200km and 250km on the image over the "azimuthal equidistant" projection. The plotting board range rings are then conformed to these fixed ranges by re-projecting the (somewhat distorted) plotting board image. The yellow line is over 20km long and joins the 'plotted ranges' to the ODIRA route for the t=41 bearing from the radar site.


Dear Lieste,

I've just quioted the court documents, not your beautifull work! Your approach is quite clever than mine! As i got it right, you created 50-100-150 km circles and then mapped 50-100-150 km rings of the BIP over it, right? I just put this BIP over and adjusting it's size by streching it and measuring the scale, using two 100 km lines from the center to the south and second one - to the east.... The best should if the BIP was tangential to the point of the Command Post (which still cannot understand where was stationed)... But as you stated, the difference is so small (less than 1 km, I think). Target route is also strange - (see the last picture, which I've posted earlier - it is different than on BIP).

#3640339 - 09/07/12 06:55 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
The yellow line is over 20km long and joins the 'plotted ranges' to the ODIRA route for the t=41 bearing from the radar site.









As it was shown here, it looks that the roots are wider than I thought (somebody mentioned for 10 km from each side).

P.S. you got a PM also... yep

Last edited by piston79; 09/09/12 02:15 PM.
#3641339 - 09/09/12 08:19 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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It looks very crappy, but that's what I could do for a moment...
Probably picking initial and final point and time will do some smoother speed profile (especially for BP-3 - it goes supersonic, if timing is true!!!).

Still, not enough info for the target launch site, also it's obviouse that Tu-154 track should be extracted back in time (just before ODIRA):

Click to reveal..


Know what to do... wink :




This must be P-18:


Last edited by piston79; 09/09/12 08:22 PM.
#3646142 - 09/18/12 11:15 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79

http://www.mediafire.com/?fucmjym293l2tmg
"BIPoverMAP" is the BIP image,calibrated with 150 km lines from east to the west and north to the south.
"NavigationMap" is a flight navigation map, which was calibrated over some root points:
AMDUS;ODIRA;ALUSHTA and GORNU.


Hi guys, did you see something like this when downloading file from upper link, or just see some coordinates?:

#3650066 - 09/24/12 06:51 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Hi, guys...

Any ideas/sugestions about position of the Tu-154M at time before 12.38, as RPN of the S-200V starts iluminating BP-3 at ~ 12.36?
(Yellow line is Tu-154M route from 12.38 to 12.44)


#3650074 - 09/24/12 07:15 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Given the departure airport, I'd be surprised by anything other than DETOS.

#3650086 - 09/24/12 07:33 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
Given the departure airport, I'd be surprised by anything other than DETOS.


You won't put your money on Sinop, aren't you? yep
Pity, no more maps available, but your sugestions looks pretty sound to me - I will not argue over it!
Thanks for the opinion and help!

#3650154 - 09/24/12 09:06 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Only because there isn't an approach from the south to Sinop - you'd have to make a longer route to hit it from West Or East... While you can just head north in a straight-ish line via DETOS UW-99 ODIRA.

Departure practically due south. Of course ~ with relations being poor between Israel and Syria/Lebanon, there might routinely be a large detour over the Med, making SINOP slightly more probable... but I'd still favour DETOS/UW-99.

Another consideration indicating a turn at ODIRA is that the plot has the aircraft someway south of the nominal corridor ~ this could be the result of an early turn intended to make up time?

#3650618 - 09/25/12 04:52 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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guyss... until now.. Documentary TV program , like national geography create on Documentary video about ukrainian tu-154 killing by sa-5???? confused

Last edited by milang; 09/25/12 04:53 PM.
#3650688 - 09/25/12 06:18 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: farokh]  
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Originally Posted By: milang
guyss... until now.. Documentary TV program , like national geography create on Documentary video about ukrainian tu-154 killing by sa-5???? confused

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP6T424Hd...ture=plpp_video

#3650743 - 09/25/12 07:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
Only because there isn't an approach from the south to Sinop - you'd have to make a longer route to hit it from West Or East... While you can just head north in a straight-ish line via DETOS UW-99 ODIRA.

Departure practically due south. Of course ~ with relations being poor between Israel and Syria/Lebanon, there might routinely be a large detour over the Med, making SINOP slightly more probable... but I'd still favour DETOS/UW-99.

Another consideration indicating a turn at ODIRA is that the plot has the aircraft someway south of the nominal corridor ~ this could be the result of an early turn intended to make up time?

I am no expert in reading those flight maps - this is actually the first time I look at them - but looking at the way the plane turns from ENE to a NE course, that seems to fit pretty well with coming from Sinop at 60, and turning at Odira to a more northernly course to follow B145 (42); just by looking at the earlier posted maps of the turkish and Black Sea/russian airspace. I could imagine that they take a "detour" west around Cyprus...

However, looking at the video screenshots a page or two back, it looks like the plane was coming down UL981 (122), changed at Soblo to B143 (99), and could then continue on B145 at PABIT("mirrored N" = "I"?) (42). But such a course would only make sense if they want to avoid turkish airspace as well (9/11 again???). But even in that case, why fly that close to the Krim (actually over it, if the path shown on the plots is correct) and then turn south - why not just straight through the Ukraine, or if you want to avoid that as well (for whatever reasons, fees,...) on a more southernly route e.g. from Bulgaria... Maybe weather??? I guess there was no US carrier group in the Black Sea that blocked...

... Now I had an idea and look what I found:
No carrier group (no US carriers allowed in the Black Sea by the Montreux Convention), but close enough Enduring Freedom Ops
Quote:
A total of 211 US Air Force planes used Ukraine's air corridors between 9 October and 7 November 2001, according to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry. During this period, 78 C-17 transport planes, five C-130 and 128 KC-135 tanker aircraft used the Ukrainian corridors, mainly over the neutral waters of the Black Sea where aircraft were refueled. In November and December 2001, US tanker aircraft based in Bulgaria flew about six missions a day to refuel warplanes in the Afghan theater. A Bulgarian military airport in the Black Sea became a de facto US base, with about 200 Americans stationed there. Twenty US military flights to or from Afghanistan crossed Romania each day.

Okay, that started on the 9th and the Tu-154 was shot down on the 4th, but maybe there were already some "pre-ops" and restrictions on certain corridors at that time.

#3650800 - 09/25/12 08:25 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: WhoCares]  
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Quote:
However, looking at the video screenshots a page or two back, it looks like the plane was coming down UL981 (122), changed at Soblo to B143 (99), and could then continue on B145 at PABNT (42). But such a course would only make sense if they want to avoid turkish airspace as well (9/11 again???). But even in that case, why fly that close to the Krim (actually over it, if the path shown on the plots is correct) and then turn south - why not just straight through the Ukraine, or if you want to avoid that as well (for whatever reasons, fees,...) on a more southernly route e.g. from Bulgaria... Maybe weather??? I guess there was no US carrier group in the Black Sea that blocked...



This plane is the Armenian airlines AN-24 (or 26) coming from Simferopol, which was eyewithess of the explosion. The pilot said that 40 degrees on his course in the zone RABBIT, he saw flash and a white cloud above him (AN-24 was at 6300 meters altitude, Tu-154M at 11 110 m)... On the video screenshot nothing below ODIRA was vissible... I am searching for the video of the pressconferens, but no luck at all (probably in any western media they could have some tape)....

#3650864 - 09/25/12 09:55 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Ah, that explains this "oddity".
Remains the point that the plotted path shows a left turn at ODIRA, which can be better explained from SINOPm 60=>42, whereas DETOS would usually be a right turn, 6=>42. But maybe I am taking that handdrawn yellow line too serious wink
I have another little straw to support this, as another reason why they might have been routed west of Cyprus - on 22nd September Turkey opened its air space to the US and Incirlik AB became a main hub for the support of the war in Afghanistan; Incirlik is right on that way.

#3650912 - 09/25/12 11:09 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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I'm going to revise the route I favour ~ finding several contemporary reports that the aircraft landed at Burgas (Bulgaria) prior to the shoot-down, it does indeed seem probable that route was via SINOP, or possibly even further north. There are several UK papers that show a northerly route direct from TA to ODIRA, and the time from 'takeoff' to shoot down doesn't seem feasible for TA>Burgas>ODIRA, but it would fit for sloppy reporting and take-off of the flight originating from Tel Aviv, from Burgas at the quoted time.

<Unsure>

#3651051 - 09/26/12 05:00 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
I'm going to revise the route I favour ~ finding several contemporary reports that the aircraft landed at Burgas (Bulgaria)


This Burgas stop info was released by a canadian TV journalists and was denied officially by bulgarian autorities and Siberia... I am thinking that those military airfleet movement toward Turkey could really reflect the route of the poor Tu, as fellow Who cares noticed.

I have not much time to search right now, but I am determent to create .gpx for this situation, so stay tuned! wink I am gonna to research available documents and describe the events timeline here (should done this in the begining of the topic frown )
Who knows, maybe Hpasp will find a free spot in his schedule and implement this, so we can see what could been happend thrue S-200 cabin...

#3652603 - 09/28/12 08:05 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Those fragments are found into the plane wreckage...
(thanks to user ADI from balancer.ru)

#3653073 - 09/29/12 03:52 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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The 5V28E V-880E (SA-5B Gammon) Surface to Air Missile 5B14S Warhead contains 21,000pcs 3.5g and 16,000pcs 2g steel ball fragments.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3653133 - 09/29/12 06:08 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
The 5V28E V-880E (SA-5B Gammon) Surface to Air Missile 5B14S Warhead contains 21,000pcs 3.5g and 16,000pcs 2g steel ball fragments.


hpasp... do u have any picture's about sam missile fragments ?????? those fragments is like ball or bullet or pellet? confused

Last edited by milang; 09/29/12 09:11 PM.
#3654793 - 10/02/12 04:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: farokh]  
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Originally Posted By: milang
Originally Posted By: Hpasp
The 5V28E V-880E (SA-5B Gammon) Surface to Air Missile 5B14S Warhead contains 21,000pcs 3.5g and 16,000pcs 2g steel ball fragments.


hpasp... do u have any picture's about sam missile fragments ?????? those fragments is like ball or bullet or pellet? confused



According to the Hungarian manuals, they are steel balls.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3654956 - 10/02/12 07:55 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
With these, the plotted Tu154 is over 20km beyond the nominal track of Odira ~ and I'd be surprised by such a large discrepancy in Soviet airspace? The terrain in actuality (SRTM) doesn't match well with either the Air/Navigation chart, nor the plotting board representation, although coordinates recorded are aligned across the multiple documents. Other tracks are similarly displaced further than the route would suggest.

The initial impression is one of sloppy calibration and practices, although that might be harsh, as they did successfully engage an airborne target with a single round.

Click to reveal..


Those are from court documents, which I've manage to translate with google:

Quote:
...Question 12. Are requests for information were made by experts from all dispatchers that accompanied the October 4, 2001 Tu-154M, relatively working / non-working system recognition nationality Tu-154M across the route of his flight? Did the request to the radio battalion in Kerch (on radar P-14 which was observed Tu-154M) as to whether it was turned on a Tu-154M system recognition nationality? Reply. Experts have access to data from fotocontrol over the years since the accident to the present date. Military Radars constantly do recognition of the nationality of aircraft markings which are seen on the screen. The radar mark of the Tu-154M of "Siberia" on the display radar P-14 (Kerch) never had a mark, which confirms the aircraft response to requests from the radar. This clearly proves that the IFF system of the aircraft did not work(or was turned off or was not workable). In the course of the commission of inquiry into the disaster in Sochi Russian military did not refute the information that air defense system of Russia on the Black Sea coast worked on a Tu-154, both in plane-violator state border of Russia for the same reason.
Question 13. According to expert opinion (p. 20) "According to objective scrutiny Ukraine (RLS 5N84F orlr Theodosius) of Tu-i54M signal "I am own" was absent throughout the route of his flight to the point of disaster." Explain the sources of these data (due to the fact that in the file they are absent, and the conclusions of the experts can not see any applications experts to obtain such data). Reply. Already provided in response to item 11.
.....................................

"Control is primarily subject to aircraft approaching the area landfill, as well as having to move an application (no later than 2 hours before take-off) route. Tu-154 charter flight and was not declared (this is known to the experts in airport "Adler" and IAC in Sochi). objective control materials from RFCs "Gelendzhik" showed the route of the aircraft after it crossing of the Turkish border, which route took place from the very beginning outside the permitted flight corridor (as the flight mode violator) and only after the radio connection to the airport "Adler" he walked into the corridorand began comply with secondary radar RFCs "Gelendzhik" and the airport "Adler".


Also:

Quote:
"As a result of the objective control, the established radio hardware of S-200B during exercises 10/04/2001 found and accompanied only the target BP-3"Reis" in its receiding (up to 80 km) and its approaching started from a distance of 78 km. The target was destroyed by the S-300PS at a distance of 11 km from the S-200V (12 hours. 42 minutes.), therefore its support in the future radio engineering means the S-200V was physically impossible and radiation ROC was dismissed for 3 minutes before the disaster Tu-154, as defined in the materials of the MAC. "
........................

"H. Range
28. In response to questions 8 (pp. 18-19 Opinion) during training Oct. 4, 2001 as a result of objective control combat crews radar P-18 discovered and accompanied only target BP-3 "Reis" as if its distance (to a distance of 80 km) and at the approach (from a distance of 78 km), which was confirmed by photocontrol(fototablitse 13). Radar illumination target(RPN) 5N62V discovered and escorted target BP-3 "Flight" at a distance of 72 km at 12 h. 36 minutes. local time, as evidenced by data from reporting card. "

.............



How about that guys? As they didn't use IADS, and start searching that target with azimuth scaning (because no P-14, but P-18) like this:

BEFORE 12.36.00 Kiyev time, when azimuth distance between Tu-154M and the "Reis" target should be less than 10 degrees:



So it seems that they acquired Tu-154M at the very begining, thus make senseless that real target was destroyed with S-300PS at 12.42.20 (2 min. 40 sec. before crash), as at 12.42.20 S-200 was tracking another target (i.e Tu-154M). Nevertheless:

Quote:
The termination of radiation from RPN for 3 minutes until the Tu-154 is set on the basis of expert explanations Officials contained in the case.

... which are highly interested not to be accused!!!...


Last edited by piston79; 10/02/12 07:55 PM.
#3655293 - 10/03/12 07:04 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79

So it seems that they acquired Tu-154M at the very begining, thus make senseless that real target was destroyed with S-300PS at 12.42.20 (2 min. 40 sec. before crash), as at 12.42.20 S-200 was tracking another target (i.e Tu-154M). Nevertheless:


Yes, it is in perfect match with previous Hpasp's finding - in the moment of IFF check, photo take and so (quite a time) 5N62 was not locked on the target. So after it they had to reacquire it and they locked the Tu-154. It is also a must in case it was shot down - the missile HAD TO START with long distance flight program else it would not get so far.

Originally Posted By: piston79
The termination of radiation from RPN for 3 minutes until the Tu-154 is set on the basis of expert explanations Officials contained in the case.
... which are highly interested not to be accused!!!...

Agree....

#3655378 - 10/03/12 11:35 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: piston79

So it seems that they acquired Tu-154M at the very begining, thus make senseless that real target was destroyed with S-300PS at 12.42.20 (2 min. 40 sec. before crash), as at 12.42.20 S-200 was tracking another target (i.e Tu-154M). Nevertheless:


Yes, it is in perfect match with previous Hpasp's finding - in the moment of IFF check, photo take and so (quite a time) 5N62 was not locked on the target. So after it they had to reacquire it and they locked the Tu-154. It is also a must in case it was shot down - the missile HAD TO START with long distance flight program else it would not get so far.


I think the picture is a total fake, done after the exercise...
Still don't know how it happens with a launch, without using distance determination. Also there is some technical stuff about radiofuse and trajectry...

#3655392 - 10/03/12 12:00 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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I think it could be done - try in SAMSIM (except IFF) - point 5N62 at target and you will see the same picture, upper display will indicate received signal from 5N62.
Either they could see both targets in speed scope (GLADKIJ and AS-3 not yet active) or VR-3 just slipped away of the beam and they selected wrong target for AS-3 (Tu instead of VR), then switch do POLOVIN, measured range (they could be under stress so they did not watch the range indicator - ust eyes locked on scope when turning the wheel).
Pressed launch buttons and ....

#3655567 - 10/03/12 04:07 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
I think it could be done - try in SAMSIM (except IFF) - point 5N62 at target and you will see the same picture, upper display will indicate received signal from 5N62.


Yes, initially I tought that this could be a check after target is found (before any kind of AS), but see what I found later (written of the bottom of this post!!!):
http://simhq.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/3638330/Re_Tu_154M_of_Syberia_what_rea.html#Post3638330

Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Either they could see both targets in speed scope (GLADKIJ and AS-3 not yet active) or VR-3 just slipped away of the beam and they selected wrong target for AS-3 (Tu instead of VR), then switch do POLOVIN, measured range (they could be under stress so they did not watch the range indicator - ust eyes locked on scope when turning the wheel).
Pressed launch buttons and ....


I think they aquired Tu-154M from the very begining and didn't check the distance at all... If they saw two targets, they should be worried a bit... By the way, there was info about power cut in K vans, but it was before shooting, will check it again!

#3655600 - 10/03/12 04:59 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: piston79

So it seems that they acquired Tu-154M at the very begining, thus make senseless that real target was destroyed with S-300PS at 12.42.20 (2 min. 40 sec. before crash), as at 12.42.20 S-200 was tracking another target (i.e Tu-154M). Nevertheless:


Yes, it is in perfect match with previous Hpasp's finding - in the moment of IFF check, photo take and so (quite a time) 5N62 was not locked on the target. So after it they had to reacquire it and they locked the Tu-154. It is also a must in case it was shot down - the missile HAD TO START with long distance flight program else it would not get so far.


I think the picture is a total fake, done after the exercise...
Still don't know how it happens with a launch, without using distance determination. Also there is some technical stuff about radiofuse and trajectry...


Just keep in mind, that the 5E50 radio proxy fuse is Semi Active.
Without the illumination of the RPC it simply not detonate...

Last edited by Hpasp; 10/03/12 04:59 PM.

Hpasp
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#3655632 - 10/03/12 05:35 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Just keep in mind, that the 5E50 radio proxy fuse is Semi Active.
Without the illumination of the RPC it simply not detonate...


Pity, but the technical analize of trajectory and radiofuse is a scanned document on ukrainian... frown

Shortly:

GSN lock will break at ~1300 meters from the Tu-154m due to moving of the center of the energy of the returned signal, which results in problems in homing of the missile

Quote:
carrying out further calculations stated: "When the angular size of the field wandering ECV exceeds the value of 0.7 beamwidth antenna GSN (ie 4.2 deg, corresponding to 0.073 rad.) Guided missiles and will stop signals" SriV AS GSN "and" BLYZHNEE VZVEDENYE " to radiofuse .." From the above magnitude 4.2 degrees appears that the beamwidth antenna GSN experts determined rate of 6 . At the same time, based on the case file beamwidth antenna GSN defined in 5 -10 .


After that the radiofuse will detonate at ~780 meters from the Tu-154M, which results at max 3 warhead pieces, which could hit the aircraft (kill possibility 0.007).

They stated also that if 5V28 doesn't detonated, it will pass near Tu-154M not closer than ~340 meters... screwy

#3655659 - 10/03/12 06:15 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Just keep in mind, that the 5E50 radio proxy fuse is Semi Active.
Without the illumination of the RPC it simply not detonate...


Pity, but the technical analize of trajectory and radiofuse is a scanned document on ukrainian... frown

Shortly:

GSN lock will break at ~1300 meters from the Tu-154m due to moving of the center of the energy of the returned signal, which results in problems in homing of the missile

Quote:
carrying out further calculations stated: "When the angular size of the field wandering ECV exceeds the value of 0.7 beamwidth antenna GSN (ie 4.2 deg, corresponding to 0.073 rad.) Guided missiles and will stop signals" SriV AS GSN "and" BLYZHNEE VZVEDENYE " to radiofuse .." From the above magnitude 4.2 degrees appears that the beamwidth antenna GSN experts determined rate of 6 . At the same time, based on the case file beamwidth antenna GSN defined in 5 -10 .




After that the radiofuse will detonate at ~780 meters from the Tu-154M, which results at max 3 warhead pieces, which could hit the aircraft (kill possibility 0.007).

They stated also that if 5V28 doesn't detonated, it will pass near Tu-154M not closer than ~340 meters... screwy


Hmmm...
... I could hardly correlate the real way of working of the 5E50 radio proxy fuse to this translation.

The 5B73A safety mechanism has 5 safety levels:
1st is released during launch by the g forces
2nd is released when the 5D67 ZRD (liquid fuel sustainer) started, by a pressure sensor in the chamber
3rd is released when the missile speed is accumulated, by a Pitot pressure sensor
4th is released when the GSN is locked on the target
5th is released when the GSN looses the target by exceeding its 3,5degree/sec target tracking capability

So the 5th is only released when the target is so close by, that the GSN is unable to track it.

After this happened, the GSN switches off, and the 5E50 activated waiting to receive the reflected signal of the RPC, from the target.

The V-880E has 850m/s speed at 220km...
... now you can calculate that what is the arming range of the missile.
cowboy

Last edited by Hpasp; 10/03/12 06:22 PM.

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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3655666 - 10/03/12 06:24 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
[Hmmm...
... I could hardly correlate the real way of working of the 5E50 radio proxy fuse to this translation.


Sorry, that's all I can do about it.... If someone wishes to help, I'll send him the file...(had it on ukrainian and russian) sigh

Last edited by piston79; 10/03/12 06:59 PM.
#3659236 - 10/09/12 06:15 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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As the Piston79 asked me to translate a fragment of court documents and publish it here, I'm fulfilling his request. Since this forum have problems with displaying some symbols, I had to upload it to MediaFire in .doc format. Here it is:

http://www.mediafire.com/view/?7elflwj4n63iuba

#3659249 - 10/09/12 07:18 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
As the Piston79 asked me to translate a fragment of court documents and publish it here, I'm fulfilling his request. Since this forum have problems with displaying some symbols, I had to upload it to MediaFire in .doc format. Here it is:

http://www.mediafire.com/view/?7elflwj4n63iuba


Im not an expert of this topic, so this is only an amateur opinion, but...

Answer of Question3 is seems to me a complete #%&*$#.
The GSN BV mode of operation (close target mode) is not initiated by wondering energy center, but the target is coming to the side of the missile (from the front) and the GSN looses its track.

1300m seems to me too long.

Answer of Question4 is...
0.65 and 3.5deg/sec
...why they calculate with different numbers?

Question 6...
... rotating homing head???
biggrin


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3659287 - 10/09/12 09:22 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
As the Piston79 asked me to translate a fragment of court documents and publish it here, I'm fulfilling his request. Since this forum have problems with displaying some symbols, I had to upload it to MediaFire in .doc format. Here it is:

http://www.mediafire.com/view/?7elflwj4n63iuba



Thanks for your support and priceless help dear Lonewolf!


#3659292 - 10/09/12 09:42 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp


Im not an expert of this topic, so this is only an amateur opinion, but...

Answer of Question3 is seems to me a complete #%&*$#.
The GSN BV mode of operation (close target mode) is not initiated by wondering energy center, but the target is coming to the side of the missile (from the front) and the GSN looses its track.

1300m seems to me too long.

Yeah, the whole "energy center of reflection" stuff looks rather lame to me too...

Quote:

Question 6...
... rotating homing head???
biggrin

My mistake, homing head antenna, of course...

Last edited by Lonewolf357; 10/09/12 09:42 AM.
#3659293 - 10/09/12 09:44 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Im not an expert of this topic, so this is only an amateur opinion, but...


Which topic - S-200V?

Quote:
Answer of Question3 is seems to me a complete #%&*$#.
The GSN BV mode of operation (close target mode) is not initiated by wondering energy center, but the target is coming to the side of the missile (from the front) and the GSN looses its track.
1300m seems to me too long.


I think the idea is to established the size of the reflection area, and by that establishing when the GSN will lost AS (when 0.7 of its diagram is full of target's return signal) thus when fifth lock of radiofuse is unlocked... As per this "energetic center" movement... this issue is noted from russians when using MHI against low level targets when mirror reflection caused moving of the tARGET return energetic center and this caused response in missile driving mechanizm (trajectory deviations) and missile missed the target...

Quote:
Answer of Question4 is...
0.65 and 3.5deg/sec
...why they calculate with different numbers?


???

Quote:
Question 6...
... rotating homing head???
biggrin


I think they wrote: rotation of homing head axis..

#3659438 - 10/09/12 01:29 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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I think that the missile will probably pass closer than their predicted range before losing GSN lock, as there will be a lead angle being maintained for a collision course. The only significant factor for a non-manoeuvring target is the velocity decay of the missile, requiring gradually increasing lead to maintain a collision intercept. (Plus of course errors arising from sloppy guidance &/or aero performance in following the track).

This is highly unlikely to exceed 3.5 dps for most cases. IMO.

When the missile loses guidance it should be leading the target (not pointed directly at it), and there should be a near-miss or hit from a clean track. (e.g. like an unguided AAA shell fired at the correct intercept point).

#3662658 - 10/14/12 12:48 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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According to my calculation, the missile passed at a maximum of 52m miss distance at that range, otherwise the radio proxy fuse simply would not arm.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3662672 - 10/14/12 01:35 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp
According to my calculation, the missile passed at a maximum of 52m miss distance at that range, otherwise the radio proxy fuse simply would not arm.


Probably not going to see your method of calculatiion, right?

#3662685 - 10/14/12 02:05 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Originally Posted By: Hpasp
According to my calculation, the missile passed at a maximum of 52m miss distance at that range, otherwise the radio proxy fuse simply would not arm.


Probably not going to see your method of calculatiion, right?


The missile is flying approx 850m/s at that distance, and we know that the GSN tracking of 3.5degree is when the radio proxy fuse is armed...
850m/s * tan 3.5 degree/sec = ~52m
... this is quite reasonable.


If we check the possible maximum, the missile reaches 1850m/s maximum speed, there the arming distance would be...
1850m/s * tan 3.5 degree/sec = ~113m
... also reasonable.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3663206 - 10/15/12 02:26 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Hi,

this is the best .gpx I managed to create so far...:
Click to reveal..
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="no" ?>
<gpx xmlns="http://www.topografix.com/GPX/1/1">

<trk><name>Tu-154M</name><trkseg>
<trkpt lat="42.454040" lon="36.965588">
<ele>11100</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:36:11Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="42.89319493472761" lon="37.5068031754402">
<ele>11110</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:41:10Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="43.272086" lon="37.847236">
<ele>11110</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:45:00Z</time>
</trkpt>
</trkseg></trk>

<trk><name>AN-24</name><trkseg>
<trkpt lat="43.481343" lon="35.977621">
<ele>6300</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:32:11Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="43.333640" lon="36.235928">
<ele>6300</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:35:10Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="43.176484" lon="37.045326">
<ele>6300</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:44:05Z</time>
</trkpt>
</trkseg></trk>

<trk><name>A-310</name><trkseg>
<trkpt lat="43.751590" lon=" 36.353298">
<ele>10000</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:32:10Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat=" 43.984748" lon="35.136473">
<ele>10000</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:39:40Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.099610" lon="34.284966">
<ele>10000</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:44:50Z</time>
</trkpt>
</trkseg></trk>

<trk><name>BP-3"Reis"</name><trkseg>
<trkpt lat="45.062481" lon="35.988308">
<ele>1500</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:29:59Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.388637" lon="36.447689">
<ele>1500</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:35:22Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.354104" lon="36.447140">
<ele>1500</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:35:37Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.329657" lon="36.420504">
<ele>1500</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:35:52Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.312979" lon="36.327296">
<ele>1500</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:36:24Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.320176" lon="36.291348">
<ele>1500</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:36:36Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.358830" lon="36.262724">
<ele>1500</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:36:55Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.524775" lon="36.239446">
<ele>1800</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:38:07Z</time>
</trkpt>
<trkpt lat="44.988076" lon="36.174101">
<ele>1800</ele>
<time>2012-01-01T12:41:28Z</time>
</trkpt>
</trkseg></trk>

</gpx>


I choosed a 930 km/h speed for the Tu-143 Reis (BR-3) and tried to recreated it during most of it's track... Time of launching is unknown, time of destruction ~12:42.00... So I tried to find this time approximately:

Click to reveal..
S (km) V (km/h) V (km/min) T(min) TIME(min,sec) Time of destruction Time of launch
175,91 950 15,83 11,11 00:11:07 12:42:00 12:30:53
175,91 940 15,67 11,23 00:11:14 12:42:00 12:30:46
175,91 930 15,50 11,35 00:11:21 12:42:00 12:30:39
175,91 920 15,33 11,47 00:11:28 12:42:00 12:30:32
175,91 910 15,17 11,60 00:11:36 12:42:00 12:30:24
175,91 1000 16,67 10,55 00:10:33 12:42:00 12:31:27


It is between 12:30 - 12:31 local time for the speed interval of 910 to 1000 km/h average speed. The problem is that speed change durinng turning is not known (that's why the BR-3 is in it's point of destruction at 12:41:28 (according my .gpx), not at ~12.42 as it was according the investigation. Also at 12.36 when the target was iluminated from RPN, according my .gpx the target is at ~0 tangental speed (in the middle of it's back turn curve), but according investigation at 12.36 the target was ot it's way back to the firing range at 72 km from the S-200 site...

p.s. Looking at this picture makes me to think I did A HUGE MISTAKE of determination of coordinates of all track, according the PloatingBoard... It seems that target goes for S-200V site with zero parameter and it's launch site is closer to east shore of Feodosia bay. I wish I had a map of Chauda firing range... frown


Last edited by piston79; 10/16/12 07:51 AM. Reason: add info
#3663786 - 10/16/12 01:46 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Looking at that picture:


If target was at 12:36 at 72 km from VEGA site, 12:41:20(that is the time in court documents) at 38 km range and at >12:42 at 11 km, the speed is far less than it's maximum of ~950 km/h..

(72-38)/5.3*60= 385 km/h
(72-11)/6*60= 609 km/h
(38-11)/40*3600 = 2430 km/h...
If took time of lauch at 12:41:50:
(72-38)/5.83*60= 349 km/h
screwy

Probably the BR-3 has it's descelerate program (as it finaly land on it's launch site under canopy), but such strange speed changes are just senseless, also different at this picture, the time of launch is before BR-3 reaches 38 km range, which if it is right, could give the missile + 30 km (pobably manipulated data again).

Last edited by piston79; 10/16/12 01:52 PM.
#3701666 - 12/18/12 09:34 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Here some info for the Tu-143... :

http://www.valka.cz/clanek_10610.html

RCS stated is 0.25 -0.35 m2...(!)


Last edited by piston79; 01/12/13 04:01 PM.
#3704710 - 12/22/12 10:09 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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About Tu-154M RCS:

Here some estimation about a similar aircraft - Boeing-727-100:




Note that both frames (Tu-154 and Boeing-727 had 3 engines and one of those is in the body, as the engine gets air from an inlet ahead of the vertical fin through an S-shaped duct (which should "cover" the radar return from the engine rotor....

#3717118 - 01/13/13 05:06 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Here some info for the Tu-143... :
http://www.valka.cz/clanek_10610.html
RCS stated is 0.25 -0.35 m2...(!)


Here some info on english:

Tu-143 "Reis"

Quote:
Landing of the Tu-143 is a multi-step procedure. After aircraft enters landing zone, the engine is cut off. Steep climb and brake parachute slow it down, and after about 11sec brake parachute is jettissoned and replaced with landing one. When descent is vertical, landing parachute is automatically re-attached from the extreme tail to the center of the fuselage, and Tu-143 turns into horizontal position. At the same time, sensor poles and landing gear are erected. When sensor poles touch the hard surface, solid landing rockets slow the descent speed from 6m/sec to 2m/sec. Landing parachute is jettissoned once the landing gear is loaded to avoid dragging the aircraft by the wind.


Last edited by piston79; 02/13/13 09:01 PM.
#3733370 - 02/10/13 12:12 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79

....
Also the Armenian AN-26 crew stated that near nav. point Rabbit, on 30-40 degrees left, they saw flash and white smoke cloud.



#3751949 - 03/16/13 08:34 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
Only because there isn't an approach from the south to Sinop - you'd have to make a longer route to hit it from West Or East... While you can just head north in a straight-ish line via DETOS UW-99 ODIRA.

Departure practically due south. Of course ~ with relations being poor between Israel and Syria/Lebanon, there might routinely be a large detour over the Med, making SINOP slightly more probable... but I'd still favour DETOS/UW-99.

Another consideration indicating a turn at ODIRA is that the plot has the aircraft someway south of the nominal corridor ~ this could be the result of an early turn intended to make up time?


Some additioonal info:

1. Press release (google translation from russian):

Quote:
Plane, say local experts from turkish Flight Services Control, at 12:29 local time (13:29 MSK) on Thursday passed the airport flight information zone Samsun on the Black Sea coast, in 12.40 - left the flight zone of Turkey


Source

2. Press release from "Siberia" 1:

Quote:
OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT of Siberia
Flight details SBI1812
The Tu-154 (RA-85693) was Flight SBI 1811/1812 from Novosibirsk, Sochi-Tel Aviv-Novosibirsk. On the way to Israel, landing in Sochi was performed in order to refuel.
The actual timetable (time UTC):
October 3, 2001
SBI - 1811 Novosibirsk - Sochi - Tel Aviv (DST 0909 - Vol 1338/1500 - TLV 1700).
October 4, 2001
SBI - 1812 Tel Aviv - point Rabit (TLV 0800 - RABIT 0944).
Estimated flight time based on actual weather:
Novosibirsk - Sochi = 4 hours 38 minutes, Sochi - Tel Aviv = 2 hours 08 minutes.
Tel Aviv - Novosibirsk = 6 hours 00 minutes.
The actual flight time:
Novosibirsk - Sochi = 4 hours 29 minutes.
Sochi - Tel Aviv = 2 hours 00 minutes.
Tel Aviv - RABIT = 1 hour 44 minutes.


Source

3. Press release from Siberia 2:

Quote:
Official Statement airline "Siberia"

NOVOSIBIRSK, October 6, 2001 (12:00 local time).

Unfortunately, the media may be full of inaccuracies and distortions. Most often distorted by the following:

1 The Tu-154 (RA-85693) Campaign followed the flight number 1812 from Tel Aviv to Novosibirsk landing directly without intermediate in Bulgaria. Flight plan did not envisage such a landing.
2 Flight number 1812, adopted in accordance with the Russian civil aviation terminology, is a "charter on a regular basis." Departure of this flight from Novosibirsk is year round on Wednesdays. The first flight of "Siberia" in Novosibirsk - Tel Aviv was executed in 1995.
3 The exact title of Victor Alexeev, located in the crew of Flight number 1812 - The head of flight safety inspection airline "Siberia." It was not the deputy director general of airline "Siberia."
4 The exact title of Vladimir Tasun, head of the operational headquarters in Novosibirsk - the head of the West Siberian District Interregional Territorial Administration air transport ministry.

The airline "Siberia" will provide further information as it becomes available.



-------------

Now, looking at map, that it could come up straight from ERGUN nav.point:

,

but "Siberia" also stated that the plane followed strictly the air roots (which is contrary to court documents....

Now should find out what is "airport flight information zone Samsun"...

Last edited by piston79; 03/16/13 09:16 AM.
#3756712 - 03/24/13 01:58 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79

2. Press release from "Siberia" 1:

Quote:
OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT of Siberia
Flight details SBI1812
The Tu-154 (RA-85693) was Flight SBI 1811/1812 from Novosibirsk, Sochi-Tel Aviv-Novosibirsk. On the way to Israel, landing in Sochi was performed in order to refuel.
The actual timetable (time UTC):
October 3, 2001
SBI - 1811 Novosibirsk - Sochi - Tel Aviv (DST 0909 - Vol 1338/1500 - TLV 1700).
October 4, 2001
SBI - 1812 Tel Aviv - point Rabit (TLV 0800 - RABIT 0944).
Estimated flight time based on actual weather:
Novosibirsk - Sochi = 4 hours 38 minutes, Sochi - Tel Aviv = 2 hours 08 minutes.
Tel Aviv - Novosibirsk = 6 hours 00 minutes.
The actual flight time:
Novosibirsk - Sochi = 4 hours 29 minutes.
Sochi - Tel Aviv = 2 hours 00 minutes.
Tel Aviv - RABIT = 1 hour 44 minutes.


Source


Here the probable root of Tu-154M from Ben Gurion to ODIRA (credits to Lonewolf357). thumbsup




Total distance from Ben Gurion to crash site - 1419 km, time of flight - 1 hour 44 minutes, average speed - 817 km/h (looks plausible)

Last edited by piston79; 03/24/13 03:47 PM.
#3756767 - 03/24/13 04:08 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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That track still turns south of ODIRA, yet isn't on UW99. I'd expect it to be flight along UW99 via DETOS with an early turn, to make up time perhaps, or a direct route, without turn from ERGUN, not via DETOS and UW99 at all... Being slightly East of UW99 then south of the continuation of marked route UW96 as drawn seems relatively unlikely.

I'd personally favour SIV-DETOS-UW99-earlyturn-UW96, but if there is specific information confirming being out of track position on the inbound leg to ODIRA, as well as the range indication that it was south of track 'outbound' towards Sochi.

#3756830 - 03/24/13 06:33 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste

I'd personally favour SIV-DETOS-UW99-earlyturn-UW96, but if there is specific information confirming being out of track position on the inbound leg to ODIRA, as well as the range indication that it was south of track 'outbound' towards Sochi.


Yes, you're right, I just didn't do it well... frown

The information I've got recently (check couple of previous posts) is as follows:

1. According turkish experts - at 12.29 it passes Samsun, at 12.40 - it leaves turkish aerospace.(press release)
2. At 12.39.20 the ship called North-Caucasian center of ground controllers for passing ODIRA point.(internet - http://www.airdisaster.ru/reports.php?id=8)
3. It was outside the flight path and after radiocall from "Adler" airport it goes to the B-145 (clearly visible between 12.41 and 12.44 on ploating board)(court documents).
4. According a press release from "Syberia" the ship strictly follows the navigation roots (which is a bit contrary to point 3).(press release)

.......

I wrote to turkish authorities about more details for it's path, but no answer...

#3763701 - 04/06/13 08:44 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

The strongest contributors to RCS are engines, so Tu-154, with three of them, should be somewhere between Tu-16 and Il-76. Strictly my IMHO.

I would guess the Tu-154 RCS around 42sqrm.
That gives 280km of 10dB lockon range for the GSN...
eek2




Click to reveal..








Quote:
Here some info for the Tu-143... :

http://www.valka.cz/clanek_10610.html

RCS stated is 0.25 -0.35 m2...(!)



So:

RCS(tu-143)/range^4=RCS(tu-154m)/range^4

42 sq. m./280^4 = 0.3 sq. m./x^4


thus make ~81.4 km range for Tu-143 (Reis) with 10 dB signal/noise ratio (IMHCalculations). Same ratio for Tu-154M would be achieved at say ~275-280 km.... Here, where target and Tu-154M should have been when RPN illuminates "something":



Here, when the missile was launched (both objects are within the range of min 10dB signal over noise strength...):


#3983553 - 07/20/14 04:59 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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#3984565 - 07/22/14 07:29 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Thanks for the link....

#4144589 - 07/09/15 04:40 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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...Still cannot figure it out why rhe RPC signal is so strong:




Here is SU-22 over Hungary, @ range of 60km, flying at 2km alt



Is it possible that Tu-143 is so "enhanced" so gave an RCS bigger than Su? (this signal from Tu-154 should be at distance ~ 130 km....)





Last edited by piston79; 07/09/15 04:41 PM.
#4144715 - 07/09/15 09:11 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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I think aircraft in SAM Simulator are probably modelled as large steel balls. I.E. radar cross section is the same, no matter what angle you're looking at.

Real aircraft are much more reflective at certain angles, maybe that could explain what you're seeing?

#4145772 - 07/12/15 08:00 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Mdore]  
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Originally Posted By: Mdore
I think aircraft in SAM Simulator are probably modelled as large steel balls. I.E. radar cross section is the same, no matter what angle you're looking at.

Real aircraft are much more reflective at certain angles, maybe that could explain what you're seeing?


You're right:




Still the signal is too strong for Tu-154 at ~250 km IMHO

#4299631 - 09/28/16 03:46 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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#4303308 - 10/14/16 08:20 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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#4369059 - 07/13/17 07:44 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Well, this is also pretty interesting version...


[Linked Image]

.... and pretty well complies with this one...

[Linked Image]

dizzy

#4518174 - 04/26/20 01:09 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Not sure is it true or not....


Quote
Of course, it’s possible to tell, because I practically know everything, but no matter how they later banged me, after all, practically no one “sits” for these matters, and I think the forums are visited not only by us. At that time I was the head of the AKIPS department, I was sent there to prepare missiles for firing. The Vasilkov brigade was shifted for the firing exercise, my own station for checking the onboard equipment of the missiles was better than their old modification,, and I drove my 80K6 from Sevastopol, and I got prepared 2 missiles for the firing exercise on 4-th of October.

Believe it or not, but apparently someone’s guardian angel clearly didn’t want this to happen. On October 2-nd, the missile passed full verification control, all parameters are within tolerance, on October 3 it is taken to SAM site (30 km from me) and the missile was loaded on the launch pad but the missile does not pass functional control (FK), it is brought back to me at 1 O'CLOCK in the morning, I check everything thoroughly again , everything is normal, driven back, put on the launcher , control passed, at 12 o'clock shooting must be commenced.

Both missiles was in readiness state, both see the target, they launcedh the one that did not want to fly. The target (Tu-143 drone) starts, it is tracked almost immediately from the beginning, it is receiding from us, fully tracked it is at 1 km height, it is being lost at the U-turn, it is turned on for search, it works in MHI mode, thewre was not enough time, the crew didn't use FKM mode to measure the range (they afraid they would not manage to do the process in time), the RPC (Square pair) finds the target, but at an altitude of 11 km, nobody switches the scale of the altitude display device, they think that it is 1 km, the range is unknown, as I said they work at MHI mode, launched a missile, the GSN of the missiles sees and tracks the target. The stopwatch naturally works, knowing the approximate range of the impact, it is easy to determine the flight time of the missile to the point of impact. More than a minute passes the missile still in flight, it is already clear that something is wrong, it is urgent to turn off the power, but no one is doing this, “senior comrades” are behind the operators and the launch officer, well, then I think everything is clear.

I'm not talking about the fact that the corridors of the flight of aviation were closed not at the range that this shooting required.

Of course, I got off with a slight startle, the control check of the check saved me. To be precise, officialy from the papers and forms the missile was checked by a missile officer from the Vasilkovskaya brigade, who saw my station for the first time only there at the training ground, and he presented this check to the commander in chief and defense minister .

This is the situation, guys, but I didn’t want to serve anymore, and left the reserve. I went to church, put a few candles for the peace of souls of the people who innocently died on October 4, 2001.



#4533479 - 08/13/20 03:12 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted by piston79
Not sure is it true or not....


Quote
Of course, it’s possible to tell, because I practically know everything, but no matter how they later banged me, after all, practically no one “sits” for these matters, and I think the forums are visited not only by us. At that time I was the head of the AKIPS department, I was sent there to prepare missiles for firing. The Vasilkov brigade was shifted for the firing exercise, my own station for checking the onboard equipment of the missiles was better than their old modification,, and I drove my 80K6 from Sevastopol, and I got prepared 2 missiles for the firing exercise on 4-th of October.

Believe it or not, but apparently someone’s guardian angel clearly didn’t want this to happen. On October 2-nd, the missile passed full verification control, all parameters are within tolerance, on October 3 it is taken to SAM site (30 km from me) and the missile was loaded on the launch pad but the missile does not pass functional control (FK), it is brought back to me at 1 O'CLOCK in the morning, I check everything thoroughly again , everything is normal, driven back, put on the launcher , control passed, at 12 o'clock shooting must be commenced.

Both missiles was in readiness state, both see the target, they launcedh the one that did not want to fly. The target (Tu-143 drone) starts, it is tracked almost immediately from the beginning, it is receiding from us, fully tracked it is at 1 km height, it is being lost at the U-turn, it is turned on for search, it works in MHI mode, thewre was not enough time, the crew didn't use FKM mode to measure the range (they afraid they would not manage to do the process in time), the RPC (Square pair) finds the target, but at an altitude of 11 km, nobody switches the scale of the altitude display device, they think that it is 1 km, the range is unknown, as I said they work at MHI mode, launched a missile, the GSN of the missiles sees and tracks the target. The stopwatch naturally works, knowing the approximate range of the impact, it is easy to determine the flight time of the missile to the point of impact. More than a minute passes the missile still in flight, it is already clear that something is wrong, it is urgent to turn off the power, but no one is doing this, “senior comrades” are behind the operators and the launch officer, well, then I think everything is clear.

I'm not talking about the fact that the corridors of the flight of aviation were closed not at the range that this shooting required.

Of course, I got off with a slight startle, the control check of the check saved me. To be precise, officialy from the papers and forms the missile was checked by a missile officer from the Vasilkovskaya brigade, who saw my station for the first time only there at the training ground, and he presented this check to the commander in chief and defense minister .

This is the situation, guys, but I didn’t want to serve anymore, and left the reserve. I went to church, put a few candles for the peace of souls of the people who innocently died on October 4, 2001.



Quite possible when they incorrectly reacquired the target as a result of losing target at near-zero radial velocity (someone forget to switch mode during this part of target's trajectory), remember our discussions here. The pressure during the test must have been very high and then mistakes arises.
Remember also hpasp's photo he got somewhere showing the IFF response when the RPC was not in target tracking mode.

#4547149 - 12/04/20 08:59 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 5
Fireman Offline
Junior Member
Fireman  Offline
Junior Member

Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 5
ČR
Originally Posted by Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted by piston79
Not sure is it true or not....


Quote
Of course, it’s possible to tell, because I practically know everything, but no matter how they later banged me, after all, practically no one “sits” for these matters, and I think the forums are visited not only by us. At that time I was the head of the AKIPS department, I was sent there to prepare missiles for firing. The Vasilkov brigade was shifted for the firing exercise, my own station for checking the onboard equipment of the missiles was better than their old modification,, and I drove my 80K6 from Sevastopol, and I got prepared 2 missiles for the firing exercise on 4-th of October.

Believe it or not, but apparently someone’s guardian angel clearly didn’t want this to happen. On October 2-nd, the missile passed full verification control, all parameters are within tolerance, on October 3 it is taken to SAM site (30 km from me) and the missile was loaded on the launch pad but the missile does not pass functional control (FK), it is brought back to me at 1 O'CLOCK in the morning, I check everything thoroughly again , everything is normal, driven back, put on the launcher , control passed, at 12 o'clock shooting must be commenced.

Both missiles was in readiness state, both see the target, they launcedh the one that did not want to fly. The target (Tu-143 drone) starts, it is tracked almost immediately from the beginning, it is receiding from us, fully tracked it is at 1 km height, it is being lost at the U-turn, it is turned on for search, it works in MHI mode, thewre was not enough time, the crew didn't use FKM mode to measure the range (they afraid they would not manage to do the process in time), the RPC (Square pair) finds the target, but at an altitude of 11 km, nobody switches the scale of the altitude display device, they think that it is 1 km, the range is unknown, as I said they work at MHI mode, launched a missile, the GSN of the missiles sees and tracks the target. The stopwatch naturally works, knowing the approximate range of the impact, it is easy to determine the flight time of the missile to the point of impact. More than a minute passes the missile still in flight, it is already clear that something is wrong, it is urgent to turn off the power, but no one is doing this, “senior comrades” are behind the operators and the launch officer, well, then I think everything is clear.

I'm not talking about the fact that the corridors of the flight of aviation were closed not at the range that this shooting required.

Of course, I got off with a slight startle, the control check of the check saved me. To be precise, officialy from the papers and forms the missile was checked by a missile officer from the Vasilkovskaya brigade, who saw my station for the first time only there at the training ground, and he presented this check to the commander in chief and defense minister .

This is the situation, guys, but I didn’t want to serve anymore, and left the reserve. I went to church, put a few candles for the peace of souls of the people who innocently died on October 4, 2001.



Quite possible when they incorrectly reacquired the target as a result of losing target at near-zero radial velocity (someone forget to switch mode during this part of target's trajectory), remember our discussions here. The pressure during the test must have been very high and then mistakes arises.
Remember also hpasp's photo he got somewhere showing the IFF response when the RPC was not in target tracking mode.


Just a note. If the scale of the height indicator does not switch, it would show the max value.
So 5km

#4547285 - 12/05/20 08:04 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Fireman]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted by Fireman

Just a note. If the scale of the height indicator does not switch, it would show the max value.
So 5km


Not sure at all.... If they didn't use FKM/Nonius mode, they cannot find the real height of the target, as the real distance is not known

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