Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Rate This Thread
Hop To
Page 6 of 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
#3646142 - 09/18/12 11:15 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted By: piston79

http://www.mediafire.com/?fucmjym293l2tmg
"BIPoverMAP" is the BIP image,calibrated with 150 km lines from east to the west and north to the south.
"NavigationMap" is a flight navigation map, which was calibrated over some root points:
AMDUS;ODIRA;ALUSHTA and GORNU.


Hi guys, did you see something like this when downloading file from upper link, or just see some coordinates?:

Inline advert (2nd and 3rd post)

#3650066 - 09/24/12 06:51 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Hi, guys...

Any ideas/sugestions about position of the Tu-154M at time before 12.38, as RPN of the S-200V starts iluminating BP-3 at ~ 12.36?
(Yellow line is Tu-154M route from 12.38 to 12.44)


#3650074 - 09/24/12 07:15 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,076
Lieste Offline
Senior Member
Lieste  Offline
Senior Member

Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,076
Given the departure airport, I'd be surprised by anything other than DETOS.

#3650086 - 09/24/12 07:33 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted By: Lieste
Given the departure airport, I'd be surprised by anything other than DETOS.


You won't put your money on Sinop, aren't you? yep
Pity, no more maps available, but your sugestions looks pretty sound to me - I will not argue over it!
Thanks for the opinion and help!

#3650154 - 09/24/12 09:06 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,076
Lieste Offline
Senior Member
Lieste  Offline
Senior Member

Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,076
Only because there isn't an approach from the south to Sinop - you'd have to make a longer route to hit it from West Or East... While you can just head north in a straight-ish line via DETOS UW-99 ODIRA.

Departure practically due south. Of course ~ with relations being poor between Israel and Syria/Lebanon, there might routinely be a large detour over the Med, making SINOP slightly more probable... but I'd still favour DETOS/UW-99.

Another consideration indicating a turn at ODIRA is that the plot has the aircraft someway south of the nominal corridor ~ this could be the result of an early turn intended to make up time?

#3650618 - 09/25/12 04:52 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 914
farokh Offline
farokh
farokh  Offline
farokh
Member

Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 914
I-RAN
guyss... until now.. Documentary TV program , like national geography create on Documentary video about ukrainian tu-154 killing by sa-5???? confused

Last edited by milang; 09/25/12 04:53 PM.
#3650688 - 09/25/12 06:18 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: farokh]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted By: milang
guyss... until now.. Documentary TV program , like national geography create on Documentary video about ukrainian tu-154 killing by sa-5???? confused

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP6T424Hd...ture=plpp_video

#3650743 - 09/25/12 07:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 632
WhoCares Offline
Member
WhoCares  Offline
Member

Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 632
Originally Posted By: Lieste
Only because there isn't an approach from the south to Sinop - you'd have to make a longer route to hit it from West Or East... While you can just head north in a straight-ish line via DETOS UW-99 ODIRA.

Departure practically due south. Of course ~ with relations being poor between Israel and Syria/Lebanon, there might routinely be a large detour over the Med, making SINOP slightly more probable... but I'd still favour DETOS/UW-99.

Another consideration indicating a turn at ODIRA is that the plot has the aircraft someway south of the nominal corridor ~ this could be the result of an early turn intended to make up time?

I am no expert in reading those flight maps - this is actually the first time I look at them - but looking at the way the plane turns from ENE to a NE course, that seems to fit pretty well with coming from Sinop at 60, and turning at Odira to a more northernly course to follow B145 (42); just by looking at the earlier posted maps of the turkish and Black Sea/russian airspace. I could imagine that they take a "detour" west around Cyprus...

However, looking at the video screenshots a page or two back, it looks like the plane was coming down UL981 (122), changed at Soblo to B143 (99), and could then continue on B145 at PABIT("mirrored N" = "I"?) (42). But such a course would only make sense if they want to avoid turkish airspace as well (9/11 again???). But even in that case, why fly that close to the Krim (actually over it, if the path shown on the plots is correct) and then turn south - why not just straight through the Ukraine, or if you want to avoid that as well (for whatever reasons, fees,...) on a more southernly route e.g. from Bulgaria... Maybe weather??? I guess there was no US carrier group in the Black Sea that blocked...

... Now I had an idea and look what I found:
No carrier group (no US carriers allowed in the Black Sea by the Montreux Convention), but close enough Enduring Freedom Ops
Quote:
A total of 211 US Air Force planes used Ukraine's air corridors between 9 October and 7 November 2001, according to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry. During this period, 78 C-17 transport planes, five C-130 and 128 KC-135 tanker aircraft used the Ukrainian corridors, mainly over the neutral waters of the Black Sea where aircraft were refueled. In November and December 2001, US tanker aircraft based in Bulgaria flew about six missions a day to refuel warplanes in the Afghan theater. A Bulgarian military airport in the Black Sea became a de facto US base, with about 200 Americans stationed there. Twenty US military flights to or from Afghanistan crossed Romania each day.

Okay, that started on the 9th and the Tu-154 was shot down on the 4th, but maybe there were already some "pre-ops" and restrictions on certain corridors at that time.

#3650800 - 09/25/12 08:25 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: WhoCares]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Quote:
However, looking at the video screenshots a page or two back, it looks like the plane was coming down UL981 (122), changed at Soblo to B143 (99), and could then continue on B145 at PABNT (42). But such a course would only make sense if they want to avoid turkish airspace as well (9/11 again???). But even in that case, why fly that close to the Krim (actually over it, if the path shown on the plots is correct) and then turn south - why not just straight through the Ukraine, or if you want to avoid that as well (for whatever reasons, fees,...) on a more southernly route e.g. from Bulgaria... Maybe weather??? I guess there was no US carrier group in the Black Sea that blocked...



This plane is the Armenian airlines AN-24 (or 26) coming from Simferopol, which was eyewithess of the explosion. The pilot said that 40 degrees on his course in the zone RABBIT, he saw flash and a white cloud above him (AN-24 was at 6300 meters altitude, Tu-154M at 11 110 m)... On the video screenshot nothing below ODIRA was vissible... I am searching for the video of the pressconferens, but no luck at all (probably in any western media they could have some tape)....

#3650864 - 09/25/12 09:55 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 632
WhoCares Offline
Member
WhoCares  Offline
Member

Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 632
Ah, that explains this "oddity".
Remains the point that the plotted path shows a left turn at ODIRA, which can be better explained from SINOPm 60=>42, whereas DETOS would usually be a right turn, 6=>42. But maybe I am taking that handdrawn yellow line too serious wink
I have another little straw to support this, as another reason why they might have been routed west of Cyprus - on 22nd September Turkey opened its air space to the US and Incirlik AB became a main hub for the support of the war in Afghanistan; Incirlik is right on that way.

#3650912 - 09/25/12 11:09 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,076
Lieste Offline
Senior Member
Lieste  Offline
Senior Member

Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,076
I'm going to revise the route I favour ~ finding several contemporary reports that the aircraft landed at Burgas (Bulgaria) prior to the shoot-down, it does indeed seem probable that route was via SINOP, or possibly even further north. There are several UK papers that show a northerly route direct from TA to ODIRA, and the time from 'takeoff' to shoot down doesn't seem feasible for TA>Burgas>ODIRA, but it would fit for sloppy reporting and take-off of the flight originating from Tel Aviv, from Burgas at the quoted time.

<Unsure>

#3651051 - 09/26/12 05:00 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted By: Lieste
I'm going to revise the route I favour ~ finding several contemporary reports that the aircraft landed at Burgas (Bulgaria)


This Burgas stop info was released by a canadian TV journalists and was denied officially by bulgarian autorities and Siberia... I am thinking that those military airfleet movement toward Turkey could really reflect the route of the poor Tu, as fellow Who cares noticed.

I have not much time to search right now, but I am determent to create .gpx for this situation, so stay tuned! wink I am gonna to research available documents and describe the events timeline here (should done this in the begining of the topic frown )
Who knows, maybe Hpasp will find a free spot in his schedule and implement this, so we can see what could been happend thrue S-200 cabin...

#3652603 - 09/28/12 08:05 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899


Those fragments are found into the plane wreckage...
(thanks to user ADI from balancer.ru)

#3653073 - 09/29/12 03:52 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,665
Hpasp Offline
Hpasp  Offline

Senior Member

Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,665
Hungary, Europe
The 5V28E V-880E (SA-5B Gammon) Surface to Air Missile 5B14S Warhead contains 21,000pcs 3.5g and 16,000pcs 2g steel ball fragments.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3653133 - 09/29/12 06:08 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 914
farokh Offline
farokh
farokh  Offline
farokh
Member

Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 914
I-RAN
Originally Posted By: Hpasp
The 5V28E V-880E (SA-5B Gammon) Surface to Air Missile 5B14S Warhead contains 21,000pcs 3.5g and 16,000pcs 2g steel ball fragments.


hpasp... do u have any picture's about sam missile fragments ?????? those fragments is like ball or bullet or pellet? confused

Last edited by milang; 09/29/12 09:11 PM.
#3654793 - 10/02/12 04:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: farokh]  
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,665
Hpasp Offline
Hpasp  Offline

Senior Member

Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,665
Hungary, Europe
Originally Posted By: milang
Originally Posted By: Hpasp
The 5V28E V-880E (SA-5B Gammon) Surface to Air Missile 5B14S Warhead contains 21,000pcs 3.5g and 16,000pcs 2g steel ball fragments.


hpasp... do u have any picture's about sam missile fragments ?????? those fragments is like ball or bullet or pellet? confused



According to the Hungarian manuals, they are steel balls.


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3654956 - 10/02/12 07:55 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted By: Lieste
With these, the plotted Tu154 is over 20km beyond the nominal track of Odira ~ and I'd be surprised by such a large discrepancy in Soviet airspace? The terrain in actuality (SRTM) doesn't match well with either the Air/Navigation chart, nor the plotting board representation, although coordinates recorded are aligned across the multiple documents. Other tracks are similarly displaced further than the route would suggest.

The initial impression is one of sloppy calibration and practices, although that might be harsh, as they did successfully engage an airborne target with a single round.

Click to reveal..


Those are from court documents, which I've manage to translate with google:

Quote:
...Question 12. Are requests for information were made by experts from all dispatchers that accompanied the October 4, 2001 Tu-154M, relatively working / non-working system recognition nationality Tu-154M across the route of his flight? Did the request to the radio battalion in Kerch (on radar P-14 which was observed Tu-154M) as to whether it was turned on a Tu-154M system recognition nationality? Reply. Experts have access to data from fotocontrol over the years since the accident to the present date. Military Radars constantly do recognition of the nationality of aircraft markings which are seen on the screen. The radar mark of the Tu-154M of "Siberia" on the display radar P-14 (Kerch) never had a mark, which confirms the aircraft response to requests from the radar. This clearly proves that the IFF system of the aircraft did not work(or was turned off or was not workable). In the course of the commission of inquiry into the disaster in Sochi Russian military did not refute the information that air defense system of Russia on the Black Sea coast worked on a Tu-154, both in plane-violator state border of Russia for the same reason.
Question 13. According to expert opinion (p. 20) "According to objective scrutiny Ukraine (RLS 5N84F orlr Theodosius) of Tu-i54M signal "I am own" was absent throughout the route of his flight to the point of disaster." Explain the sources of these data (due to the fact that in the file they are absent, and the conclusions of the experts can not see any applications experts to obtain such data). Reply. Already provided in response to item 11.
.....................................

"Control is primarily subject to aircraft approaching the area landfill, as well as having to move an application (no later than 2 hours before take-off) route. Tu-154 charter flight and was not declared (this is known to the experts in airport "Adler" and IAC in Sochi). objective control materials from RFCs "Gelendzhik" showed the route of the aircraft after it crossing of the Turkish border, which route took place from the very beginning outside the permitted flight corridor (as the flight mode violator) and only after the radio connection to the airport "Adler" he walked into the corridorand began comply with secondary radar RFCs "Gelendzhik" and the airport "Adler".


Also:

Quote:
"As a result of the objective control, the established radio hardware of S-200B during exercises 10/04/2001 found and accompanied only the target BP-3"Reis" in its receiding (up to 80 km) and its approaching started from a distance of 78 km. The target was destroyed by the S-300PS at a distance of 11 km from the S-200V (12 hours. 42 minutes.), therefore its support in the future radio engineering means the S-200V was physically impossible and radiation ROC was dismissed for 3 minutes before the disaster Tu-154, as defined in the materials of the MAC. "
........................

"H. Range
28. In response to questions 8 (pp. 18-19 Opinion) during training Oct. 4, 2001 as a result of objective control combat crews radar P-18 discovered and accompanied only target BP-3 "Reis" as if its distance (to a distance of 80 km) and at the approach (from a distance of 78 km), which was confirmed by photocontrol(fototablitse 13). Radar illumination target(RPN) 5N62V discovered and escorted target BP-3 "Flight" at a distance of 72 km at 12 h. 36 minutes. local time, as evidenced by data from reporting card. "

.............



How about that guys? As they didn't use IADS, and start searching that target with azimuth scaning (because no P-14, but P-18) like this:

BEFORE 12.36.00 Kiyev time, when azimuth distance between Tu-154M and the "Reis" target should be less than 10 degrees:



So it seems that they acquired Tu-154M at the very begining, thus make senseless that real target was destroyed with S-300PS at 12.42.20 (2 min. 40 sec. before crash), as at 12.42.20 S-200 was tracking another target (i.e Tu-154M). Nevertheless:

Quote:
The termination of radiation from RPN for 3 minutes until the Tu-154 is set on the basis of expert explanations Officials contained in the case.

... which are highly interested not to be accused!!!...


Last edited by piston79; 10/02/12 07:55 PM.
#3655293 - 10/03/12 07:04 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 617
Alien_MasterMynd Offline
Member
Alien_MasterMynd  Offline
Member

Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 617
Czech Republic
Originally Posted By: piston79

So it seems that they acquired Tu-154M at the very begining, thus make senseless that real target was destroyed with S-300PS at 12.42.20 (2 min. 40 sec. before crash), as at 12.42.20 S-200 was tracking another target (i.e Tu-154M). Nevertheless:


Yes, it is in perfect match with previous Hpasp's finding - in the moment of IFF check, photo take and so (quite a time) 5N62 was not locked on the target. So after it they had to reacquire it and they locked the Tu-154. It is also a must in case it was shot down - the missile HAD TO START with long distance flight program else it would not get so far.

Originally Posted By: piston79
The termination of radiation from RPN for 3 minutes until the Tu-154 is set on the basis of expert explanations Officials contained in the case.
... which are highly interested not to be accused!!!...

Agree....

#3655378 - 10/03/12 11:35 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
piston79 Offline
Member
piston79  Offline
Member

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,899
Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: piston79

So it seems that they acquired Tu-154M at the very begining, thus make senseless that real target was destroyed with S-300PS at 12.42.20 (2 min. 40 sec. before crash), as at 12.42.20 S-200 was tracking another target (i.e Tu-154M). Nevertheless:


Yes, it is in perfect match with previous Hpasp's finding - in the moment of IFF check, photo take and so (quite a time) 5N62 was not locked on the target. So after it they had to reacquire it and they locked the Tu-154. It is also a must in case it was shot down - the missile HAD TO START with long distance flight program else it would not get so far.


I think the picture is a total fake, done after the exercise...
Still don't know how it happens with a launch, without using distance determination. Also there is some technical stuff about radiofuse and trajectry...

#3655392 - 10/03/12 12:00 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 617
Alien_MasterMynd Offline
Member
Alien_MasterMynd  Offline
Member

Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 617
Czech Republic
I think it could be done - try in SAMSIM (except IFF) - point 5N62 at target and you will see the same picture, upper display will indicate received signal from 5N62.
Either they could see both targets in speed scope (GLADKIJ and AS-3 not yet active) or VR-3 just slipped away of the beam and they selected wrong target for AS-3 (Tu instead of VR), then switch do POLOVIN, measured range (they could be under stress so they did not watch the range indicator - ust eyes locked on scope when turning the wheel).
Pressed launch buttons and ....

Page 6 of 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Moderated by  Cat, Hpasp, RacerGT 

Quick Search
Recent Articles
Support SimHQ

If you shop on Amazon use this Amazon link to support SimHQ
.
Social


Recent Topics
Idiot for the day
by rwatson. 05/07/21 10:55 AM
The cost of Epic free games
by Blade_RJ. 05/06/21 08:28 PM
That mettalic smell you feel is actually yours !
by Blade_RJ. 05/06/21 05:15 PM
Shiny American Rocket, cheaper by the dozen
by Nixer. 05/06/21 12:48 AM
House of the Dragon
by PanzerMeyer. 05/05/21 05:45 PM
Some funny Facebook observations
by PanzerMeyer. 05/05/21 11:53 AM
Chinese Rocket
by carrick58. 05/05/21 12:26 AM
Hope everyone is having a good day
by oldgrognard. 05/04/21 02:09 PM
A long strange trip it's been
by rwatson. 05/03/21 04:31 PM
Copyright 1997-2016, SimHQ Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.6.0