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#3598324 - 06/27/12 07:29 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

I would rather bet on misidentified target.

That's what I wrote many times. Regarding Vega operation it is just impossible.

I gave misleaded theory great chance - just to see if it is impossible in this way, then everything not so optimistic is impossible too.

PS: they should verify the target many times, especially the had to see its range.


After the break-up of Soviet Union, qualification of military personnel have dramatically degraded...

Last edited by Lonewolf357; 06/27/12 07:30 PM.
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#3598327 - 06/27/12 07:32 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

I would rather bet on misidentified target.

That's what I wrote many times. Regarding Vega operation it is just impossible.


Why do you think that?


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#3598329 - 06/27/12 07:34 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79

How could they, to have AS RPC they should use FKM first...? Also they claimed they put 50 km range... think that the missile couldn't reach 300 km with "Program I" flight....


Yeah, there are inconsistencies... but the idea that Tu-154 and target drone could fly in a same narrow beam for long enough for missile to fly to 360 km doesn't look very plausible either...

#3598335 - 06/27/12 07:40 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Quote:
Yeah, there are inconsistencies... but the idea that Tu-154 and target drone could fly in a same narrow beam for long enough for missile to fly to 360 km doesn't look very plausible either...


It's not neccesary, just enough for RPC to lock on the signal of Tu-154...

#3598339 - 06/27/12 07:48 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Quote:
Yeah, there are inconsistencies... but the idea that Tu-154 and target drone could fly in a same narrow beam for long enough for missile to fly to 360 km doesn't look very plausible either...


It's not neccesary, just enough for RPC to lock on the signal of Tu-154...


But how?.. In FKM mode? And they didn't noticed the range?.. Or maybe they used IADS for range, allowing them to activate AS, and still fired in MHI mode, but locked on wrong target?..

#3598554 - 06/28/12 06:19 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

Why do you think that?


Because it is so improbable (but that does not mean it can not happen either, I admit) to have both targets in the beam and all other conditions met. I also think it is misidentification and crew locked radat to the Tu plane and maybe under the stress did not notice its range.

In any case, that plane should not be there under any circumstances and SAM crew should repeatedly verify identification of the target using several methods (IFF, range, position, call to superordinates and so).

PS: 10 degrees IFF is an overkill, I don't understand why (and with such a lethal weapon).

Last edited by Alien_MasterMynd; 06/28/12 06:20 AM.
#3598563 - 06/28/12 07:22 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd

PS: 10 degrees IFF is an overkill, I don't understand why (and with such a lethal weapon).


It is the same with most of the integrated IFF systems.
IFF frequency is lower than of the Fire Control Radars, so if they use the same antenna, that the beam will be wider.
(Just physics.)


Hpasp
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#3598569 - 06/28/12 07:40 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

It is the same with most of the integrated IFF systems.
IFF frequency is lower than of the Fire Control Radars, so if they use the same antenna, that the beam will be wider.
(Just physics.)

This makes sense.

I thought they use a different antenna (with higher gain to have narrow beam) because of danger coming from S-200.

#3598606 - 06/28/12 10:03 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
How could they, to have AS RPC they should use FKM first...? Also they claimed they put 50 km range... think that the missile couldn't reach 300 km with "Program I" flight....


Here's a better question that I've always wanted to ask:

What prevents the S-200 from AS RPC using manually input range (without FKM)?

Crappy range manually input from playing w/ Rough Nonius, yes.
Ranges of unknown quality from target designation, yes.
Under jamming conditions, no range and no velocity, yes (now here's a sub-question, what's the difference, from the viewpoint of the RPC b/w AS-2ing off a jamming strobe and AS-2ing off a reflection? If none, why am I only permitted to AS-2 off a jamming strobe?)

Crappy range manually input from peeking at Tall King at the next console, NO?

Is something not logical here?

#3598615 - 06/28/12 10:42 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: arkhangelsk]  
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Originally Posted By: arkhangelsk
Originally Posted By: piston79
How could they, to have AS RPC they should use FKM first...? Also they claimed they put 50 km range... think that the missile couldn't reach 300 km with "Program I" flight....


Here's a better question that I've always wanted to ask:

What prevents the S-200 from AS RPC using manually input range (without FKM)?

Crappy range manually input from playing w/ Rough Nonius, yes.
Ranges of unknown quality from target designation, yes.
Under jamming conditions, no range and no velocity, yes (now here's a sub-question, what's the difference, from the viewpoint of the RPC b/w AS-2ing off a jamming strobe and AS-2ing off a reflection? If none, why am I only permitted to AS-2 off a jamming strobe?)

Crappy range manually input from peeking at Tall King at the next console, NO?

Is something not logical here?


Easiest answer is that Plamya use different program codes, for the different tasks.
(manual page 17)
Plamja-KV CVM (digital computer)
The digital computer has a 16bit processor, running at 64kHz frequency.
It has 256 bytes of RAM, and 4,096 bytes of ROM.
It has five built-in programs:
1. Idle
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is calculating the firing solution using the instantaneously available data from the RPC.
2. IADS target acquisition
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is interpolating the target's predicted position, between the 10Hz updates received from the IADS information.
3. Target tracking
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is continuously calculating the target's predicted path, and figuring the firing solution based on this information.
4. Tracking Jamming Target
In this mode, the Plamja-KV is calculating the firing solution using a manually preset target range. This mode is called AS-2.
5. Self Test


There might been simply no space left on that 4kbyte for an additional program with nuisance use, or nobody asked for it.
cowboy


Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
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#3598628 - 06/28/12 11:09 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Originally Posted By: Hpasp

It is the same with most of the integrated IFF systems.
IFF frequency is lower than of the Fire Control Radars, so if they use the same antenna, that the beam will be wider.
(Just physics.)

This makes sense.

I thought they use a different antenna (with higher gain to have narrow beam) because of danger coming from S-200.


Using different antenna is theoretically always an option, but than you could easily misalign these two (IFF and Fire Control Radar) in the field, and have the same problem of receiving IFF signals from a different target, than is in your boresight.
cowboy

Last edited by Hpasp; 06/28/12 11:12 AM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

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#3599333 - 06/29/12 05:57 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Back to our investigations:
Click to reveal..
The sequence of events
At 13:44 local time airliner disappeared from radar screens Sochi dispatch service. The aircraft at that time was at an altitude of 11 kilometers, 200 kilometers south of the city of Sochi. At the same time, the pilot is in the same region of the AN-24 Armenian Airlines was briefed on an outbreak of him. The coordinates of the approximate location of the crash have been identified 42 11 's. sh. 37 37 'east. d (G), about 180 km from Novorossiysk. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the creation of a special commission on the causes of the accident. Go to the crash site immediately went to rescue ships and flew two aircraft and two helicopter rescue service in Sochi. The AN-12 discovered oil stains in the alleged crash site. Helicopters have found aircraft wreckage and the bodies of the dead passengers, floating on the surface.

Versions
In connection with the events of September 11, 2001 in New York was first proposed version of the attack. Almost immediately after the news of the disaster was closed in Tel Aviv Ben Gurion Airport, security service which began checking passenger lists Flight 1812. On the other hand, worked out version of an explosion on board the aircraft for technical reasons. However, the airline "Siberia," said the aircraft "was one of the best in the fleet of the company, he passed a rigorous inspection," and they "ran an experienced crew." A few hours later, a third version, based on the pilot's report of an outbreak of the Armenian plane, suggesting that the plane was struck from the outside, for example, shot down a missile defense. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksandr Kuzmuk denied the report, saying that this day is really planned teaching Ukrainian air defense forces, but they did not take place. Ukrainian version of the disaster was supported by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, U.S. intelligence officials interested in the incident is understandable, since the accident occurred less than a month after the events of September 11 in New York.

Investigation of accident
The basic version, which at first were inclined experts commission of inquiry into the incident - the attack. However, the version of the "Ukrainian trace" has received more and more evidence. Despite the denials of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, on the day of the disaster were carried out education firing air defense S-200 and C-300.
October 5 was reported found in the fuselage of the Tu-154 holes resembling bullet. And the head of the West Siberian Regional Office of the Air Transport Vladimir Tasun said that, "according to unverified information, the dispatcher on the locator saw a luminous point, quickly approaching aircraft. That's the only thing that is obtained from unofficial sources through the telephone company employees "Siberia" from Rostov. " The same day a Russian rescuers have joined rescue workers from Israel, as well as analysis of the negotiations was launched crew Tu-154 and analysis of video tapes, fixing radar readings. On this day, Prime Minister of Ukraine Anatoly Kinah has made a statement saying that the version of the hit missiles in Tu-154 of airline "Siberia", "has a right to exist."

October 6, Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo said at the scene were found items not related to the design of the aircraft and that "there was the destruction of the aircraft as a result of the defeat of an explosive nature."

October 7 According to the Commission, 13:45:12 overland tape was recorded screaming the Tu-154 pilot.

October 9 According to the Commission, the analysis of holes in the fuselage shows that the plane could have been struck by a missile defense complex S-200 as well as the size and shape of the holes are consistent with shrapnel high-explosive fragmentation warhead missiles of this particular complex.

October 11 Rushailo announced withdrawal of the technical commission that investigated the causes of the crash of Tu-154. "Multiple injuries in the form of similar holes speak of the defeat of the Russian aircraft from the outside."

October 12 Press Secretary to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Konstantin Hivrenko, commenting on the preliminary results of investigation of the incident, admitted that the Ukrainian missile could have caused the death of Tu-154.

October 13 Rushailo stated that the analysis of the wreckage and holes, anti-aircraft missile exploded 15 meters of the aircraft. Ukrainian Defense Minister at a conference in Kiev, apologized to the families and friends of those killed in the crash of the Russian Tu-154. "We know that the tragedy involved, although the reasons for the end is not installed."

The causes of the tragedy
The complex S-200 uses a semi-active guidance system, when the radiation source is a powerful ground-based radar ("illumination purposes"), and the missile itself is guided by the signal reflected from the target. During the shooting with Defence of Ukraine, which took place October 4, 2001 at Cape Opuk in the Crimea, the missile "lost" a little learning goal, as a result of the guidance system was switched to a much more significant, though more remote, the liner. Size of polygon does not provide a safe shooting range air defense missile system. Necessary steps to release the organizers of the airspace firings were not taken.


There are a lot of versions about coordinates of the disaster:





Also, there is a doubt about the version, mainly that the RPN must be very low on horizont, if the aircraft was more than 300 km away...

Last edited by piston79; 06/29/12 07:02 PM.
#3599757 - 06/30/12 08:00 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Back to our investigations:

There are a lot of versions about coordinates of the disaster:


The Tu-154 was flying on the airway B145: http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20011004-0
This is an extract from 2004 navigation chart. It shows airway B145 in relation to the area's geography, with coordinates of waypoints. The plane's position during its destruction was somewhere along that airway:

Added: the Ukrainian missile range is in left part of the map, its restricted airspace is designated as areas marked as UK Dxxx (three digits).

P. S.: 42-11 37-37 doesn't appear to be realistic - it's not on that airway.


Last edited by Lonewolf357; 06/30/12 08:19 PM.
#3599973 - 07/01/12 07:35 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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That's even closer... ODIRA - 42 42'6 36 59'4... About 265 km. at that point (which is the furthest point from the flight route from the Opuk).


Last edited by piston79; 07/01/12 07:39 AM.
#3599997 - 07/01/12 09:50 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
That's even closer... ODIRA - 42 42'6 36 59'4... About 265 km. at that point (which is the furthest point from the flight route from the Opuk).



Yeah, looks like shot was possible even for S-200V... Still unclear about the high/low missile profile, though.

#3600006 - 07/01/12 10:51 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
Originally Posted By: piston79
That's even closer... ODIRA - 42 42'6 36 59'4... About 265 km. at that point (which is the furthest point from the flight route from the Opuk).
Click to reveal..



Yeah, looks like shot was possible even for S-200V... Still unclear about the high/low missile profile, though.


What is the furthest point of the firing zone, from the Vega?


Hpasp
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(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
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Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
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#3600011 - 07/01/12 11:17 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Quote:
What is the furthest point of the firing zone, from the Vega?


This appeared to be the furthest point from the air route from the VEGA site on Opuk - ODIRA point, which is the beginning of the B-145 air route (which crosed the shore just over Tuapse).

Last edited by piston79; 07/01/12 11:28 AM.
#3600022 - 07/01/12 11:43 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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The aircraft didn't spawn at ODIRA though - there is another leg that leads from the departure to ODIRA... because the flightplan included B145 ODIRA onwards doesn't absolutely confirm that the aircraft was that far along, or actually in the correct lateral position.

#3600034 - 07/01/12 12:08 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Still looking for any maps of full B-145 (if there is any before ODIRA), but still nothing...

Here:

с200 по &a...p;#1085;26.djvu

S-200 AS against IL-76/AN-26...

Shortly, good AS against IL-76 on 9 - 10 km, 0 to 3 km Parameter is achieved on 302.00 km with dewiation at about +-20 km... Tu-16 has smaller RCS, compared to the Il-76 (which could be comparable to Tu-154), so the S-200 kill version seems a bit imposible before ODIRA point...

Last edited by piston79; 10/15/13 07:24 PM.
#3600044 - 07/01/12 12:36 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Unfortunately, i don't have Turkish navigation charts from that period, and entire route system has been completely revised by now, so modern maps are useless. I will try to find something though.

ADDED: The earliest I could get is dated by 2006, and there is no guarantee that there were no changes between 2001 and 2006. However, due to this, there are two airways leading to ODIRA intersection from the south: the UW99 and UW96. The UW96 is out of the question, since it leads to the wrong direction, so I'd say that UW99 is the most probable one. The chart fragment is attached below. However it should be noted here: the airways on Turkish side have different designations, so B145 is actually starts at ODIRA, so if sources claim that it is flew along B145, this means that it already passed ODIRA. Also, ODIRA is a point where Turkish air traffic control handles over aircraft to Russian, and we know, that Russian controllers handled the aircraft at the moment of its destruction. Regarding the "lateral deviation": in Russian airspace it is EXTREMELY uncommon for the airliner to fly elsewhere but directly alongside airway, which width is no more than 20 km - 10 km to either side.


Last edited by Lonewolf357; 07/01/12 01:22 PM.
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