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#3600066 - 07/01/12 01:30 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Originally Posted By: Hpasp

What is the furthest point of the firing zone, from the Vega?


287 km from known S-200 position to ODIRA and about 260 km to the closest point of the airway. However, Piston79's calculations show Vega located at different location, closer to the shore. I'm not sure where it was actually located, however the only S-200 positions visible in Google Earth at that area are located at coordinates that I'm using for my calculations, at N45 09' 04" E035 43' 41".

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#3600079 - 07/01/12 02:09 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Still looking for any maps of full B-145 (if there is any before ODIRA), but still nothing...

Here:

с200 по &a...p;#1085;26.djvu

S-200 AS against IL-76/AN-26...

Shortly, good AS against IL-76 on 9 - 10 km, 0 to 3 km Parameter is achieved on 302.00 km with dewiation at about +-20 km... Tu-16 has smaller RCS, compared to the Tu-16 (which could be comparable to Tu-154), so the S-200 kill version seems a bit imposible before ODIRA point...


The strongest contributors to RCS are engines, so Tu-154, with three of them, should be somewhere between Tu-16 and Il-76. Strictly my IMHO.

#3600082 - 07/01/12 02:23 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
Originally Posted By: piston79
Still looking for any maps of full B-145 (if there is any before ODIRA), but still nothing...

Here:

с200 по &a...p;#1085;26.djvu

S-200 AS against IL-76/AN-26...

Shortly, good AS against IL-76 on 9 - 10 km, 0 to 3 km Parameter is achieved on 302.00 km with dewiation at about +-20 km... Tu-16 has smaller RCS, compared to the Tu-16 (which could be comparable to Tu-154), so the S-200 kill version seems a bit imposible before ODIRA point...


The strongest contributors to RCS are engines, so Tu-154, with three of them, should be somewhere between Tu-16 and Il-76. Strictly my IMHO.


I would guess the Tu-154 RCS around 42sqrm.
That gives 280km of 10dB lockon range for the GSN...
eek2


Hpasp
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#3600127 - 07/01/12 04:00 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

287 km from known S-200 position to ODIRA and about 260 km to the closest point of the airway. However, Piston79's calculations show Vega located at different location, closer to the shore. I'm not sure where it was actually located, however the only S-200 positions visible in Google Earth at that area are located at coordinates that I'm using for my calculations, at N45 09' 04" E035 43' 41".


The info I found was is that they fired from Opuk firing range. What I found that Opuk was a small mountain (about 187 m above sea level), and I believed that they put their temporary position on the top or next to this mountain. Of course they probably fired from Feodosia site. So, if we accepted 280 km stable AS for Tu-154, and 3 and a half minute missile flight (which is about 240-50 km), and it's resulting in a 60-63 km of flight distance for Tu-154 (which is not so important, due to huge parameter) it makes the situation plausable. Still, for me remains a mystery how they never measured the distance and didn't check the missile flight time...

Lonewolf, could we check where was the "witness" - armenian AN? Probably B-143 route?

Last edited by piston79; 07/01/12 04:19 PM.
#3600134 - 07/01/12 04:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lonewolf357]  
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Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357
Unfortunately, i don't have Turkish navigation charts from that period, and entire route system has been completely revised by now, so modern maps are useless. I will try to find something though.

ADDED: The earliest I could get is dated by 2006, and there is no guarantee that there were no changes between 2001 and 2006.


I have a Jeppensen chart dated 1995, somewhere in the attic...
... I will try to find it tomorrow.
biggrin


Hpasp
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#3600145 - 07/01/12 04:48 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
Originally Posted By: Lonewolf357

287 km from known S-200 position to ODIRA and about 260 km to the closest point of the airway. However, Piston79's calculations show Vega located at different location, closer to the shore. I'm not sure where it was actually located, however the only S-200 positions visible in Google Earth at that area are located at coordinates that I'm using for my calculations, at N45 09' 04" E035 43' 41".


The info I found was is that they fired from Opuk firing range. What I found that Opuk was a small mountain (about 187 m above sea level), and I believed that they put their temporary position on the top or next to this mountain. Of course they probably fired from Feodosia site. So, if we accepted 280 km stable AS for Tu-154, and 3 and a half minute missile flight (which is about 240-50 km), and it's resulting in a 60-63 km of flight distance for Tu-154 (which is not so important, due to huge parameter) it makes the situation plausable. Still, for me remains a mystery how they never measured the distance and didn't check the missile flight time...

Lonewolf, could we check where was the "witness" - armenian AN? Probably B-143 route?


Don't you use the Sean O'Connor's "SAM Site Overview"?.. frown You are missing a LOT! Get it from here http://geimint.blogspot.com/ and open with Google Earth, you will get thousands of SAMs all over the world. It clearly shows the Opuk range and its S-200 positions, although the marker is displaced for about 1200 meters to the east. There is no other S-200 positions in the area, so I suppose it was actual firing position in our case. The S-200 is ain't mobile system, like S-300, so I don't think they used some temporary position. Strictly my IMHO.

Regarding AS range, I guess that primary problem is getting those 25 decibels of received signal, necessary for the missile to home onto it, not AS range itself. However, since we are now operating more accurate info, I'd say that such a shot was certainly possible.

Regarding Armenian An-24 - too much time has passed, we could hardly find any info now. It could be anywhere, even on the same B145, flying same direction behind and lower than Tupolev, or flying opposite direction towards it.

#3600188 - 07/01/12 06:26 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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All on Ukrainian:
sigh

http://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/18475097

Here azimuths from KP and S-200 site:


And those are some of the materials from the court:

http://www.mediafire.com/?jwly7c6gm0md6dy sigh

#3600209 - 07/01/12 07:28 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
All on Ukrainian:
sigh

http://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/18475097

Here azimuths from KP and S-200 site:


And those are some of the materials from the court:

http://www.mediafire.com/?jwly7c6gm0md6dy sigh


WOW!!! These are priceless!!! Thumbs up for Piston79!!! thumbsup These court documents have it all!!! It looks like Ukraine is really playing in European league, if court documents can be found in the open access on the net... In our country they would be kept under lock with no access for anyone but few...

I must admit that I was wrong about the S-200 position, they really fired from temporary position at N45 03' 48" E36 05' 07". The plane's position lies directly on B145 airway.

Last edited by Lonewolf357; 07/01/12 07:32 PM.
#3600212 - 07/01/12 07:32 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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What are the coordinates of the KP and ZRK sites?

It looks as if all three are on similar bearings, with reasonable crossing angle and very similar range from angular separations at a first cut (ZRK to east of Feodosia, KP to the SW near one of the capes)...

Also - the Tel-Aviv to 'ODIVA' track is nearly due north, so the UW99 seems more likely as entry.

#3600423 - 07/02/12 04:36 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: piston79]  
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Originally Posted By: piston79
All on Ukrainian:
sigh

http://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/18475097

Here azimuths from KP and S-200 site:
Click to reveal..


And those are some of the materials from the court:

http://www.mediafire.com/?jwly7c6gm0md6dy sigh


Extremely good find, it even has the launch photo...



The finger of the Firing Officer is on the IFF button...

... and the plotting board:


grunt

Last edited by Hpasp; 07/02/12 06:17 AM.

Hpasp
Free SAM Simulator, "Realistic to the Switch"

(U-2 over Sverdlovsk, B-52's over Hanoi, F-4 Phantoms over the Sinai, F-16's and the F-117A Stealth bomber over the Balkans.)
http://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home

Book from the author - Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991
https://sites.google.com/view/nuclear-weapons-in-hungary/

thumbsup
#3600496 - 07/02/12 08:02 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Hello guys, your findings are awesome thumbsup

PS: regarding the launch photo, there is RSSI of 40dB. It was S-200D, but is it possible for Tu-154 in that distance?

#3600507 - 07/02/12 08:30 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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As I looked on the flight path (the jpg picture), it looks like they really locked on the Tu-154, practice target was about 32km far.

PS: there is S-200V notice on it....


#3600759 - 07/02/12 06:23 PM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Still have that question about what the azimuths from KP and ZRK represent. Each has an identical 14 degree 'intersection' and are within a similar bearing ~ I'm having a hard time making sense of the difference with ranges of ~32km and 200+km... the only way that would make much sense would be if there was a co-location and a systematic 14 degree error between the two readings - which is far outside of what seems reasonable for a correctly calibrated system.

I can cope with small quantities of Russian text, but can't realistically wade through each paragraph of the entire document in Ukrainian looking for subtleties of meaning, so there might be more questions as I nibble my way further in.

#3601063 - 07/03/12 10:16 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Lieste]  
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Originally Posted By: Lieste
I can cope with small quantities of Russian text, but can't realistically wade through each paragraph of the entire document in Ukrainian looking for subtleties of meaning, so there might be more questions as I nibble my way further in.


Maybe we can split the documents between us and true Google Translator we can pull up some information, we could share here...

Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd



This is a flight path of the missile, which as I got it right, was ABOVE traffic controler radars for most of the time (when above 20 km altitude). Maybe it is about statements of ground controlers about fast moving object toward Tu-154.

Last edited by piston79; 07/03/12 10:26 AM.
#3601086 - 07/03/12 11:21 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Hpasp]  
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Yes, but why missile flew this way when should be locked to the target 32km far? Plamja uploads flight program selection to missile, so I do not understand it. Especially when I take launch photo into account - 40db for a (large) target 250km far?

#3601458 - 07/04/12 12:20 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: Alien_MasterMynd]  
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Originally Posted By: Alien_MasterMynd
Yes, but why missile flew this way when should be locked to the target 32km far? Plamja uploads flight program selection to missile, so I do not understand it. Especially when I take launch photo into account - 40db for a (large) target 250km far?


The graph was made by the Interstate Aviation Committee. The 03a md-expert findings20100521.pdf document contains testimony from court expert witnesses refuting the IAC's claims. They state that the missile trajectory, in the horizontal (p. 17) and vertical planes, does not correspond to how the 5V28 actually operates.

They also note that the VR-3 was shot down by an S-300PS at 12:42, followed by the shutdown of the 5N62 at 12:42:20, which was long before the supposed Tu-154 destruction time of 12:45:00.

#3601546 - 07/04/12 05:13 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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So...If what they said is true, then whatever's left, however unlikely, has now become more than likely:

The missile, albeit unguided and somehow still armed in a highly unlikely combination of events, still managed to get to the wrong place at the wrong time.

Or slightly more likely, someone else has illuminated the Tu-154 at some time during the missile's flight. Or the Tu-154 has somehow pulled the speed gate from the drone onto itself.

...God knows.

#3601579 - 07/04/12 08:11 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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Originally Posted By: PLCC

The graph was made by the Interstate Aviation Committee. The 03a md-expert findings20100521.pdf document contains testimony from court expert witnesses refuting the IAC's claims. They state that the missile trajectory, in the horizontal (p. 17) and vertical planes, does not correspond to how the 5V28 actually operates.

They also note that the VR-3 was shot down by an S-300PS at 12:42, followed by the shutdown of the 5N62 at 12:42:20, which was long before the supposed Tu-154 destruction time of 12:45:00.


Yes, we all should know the missile climbs to the height, and then slowly descends to optimize energy loss and is heading to the target. And probably above 20km it is only some approximation since that radar is limited to 20km in height. This is not a question.
The question is why missile flew with a long distance flight program when the target should be 32km far. And the missile had to fly using this program because in the other case it would not (under any ciscumstances) get that far (about its maximum range).

#3601582 - 07/04/12 08:15 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: JWNoctis]  
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Originally Posted By: JWNoctis
Or the Tu-154 has somehow pulled the speed gate from the drone onto itself.

How, when the operation of 5N62 ceased three minutes before impact?

Was there another 5N62 in the vicinity of the firing battery which could illuminate the Tu-154? So how the missile could travel about 150km+ with no target signal and even fortunately get to the extreme vicinity of the Tu-154 to be in radiofuse range and close enough for warhead to destroy it?

#3601584 - 07/04/12 08:22 AM Re: Tu-154M of "Syberia" - what really happens? [Re: PLCC]  
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Originally Posted By: PLCC
They also note that the VR-3 was shot down by an S-300PS at 12:42, followed by the shutdown of the 5N62 at 12:42:20, which was long before the supposed Tu-154 destruction time of 12:45:00.


This is another mystery. Why both batteries (S-200 and S-300) fired at the same target? It is clear that one missile would destroy it sooner and the second one could make some accidental damage.

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