When deciding if to make a game for the PC platform publishers go through all sorts of scenarios on how much money it will make. There isn't great amount of data out there, but the general impression is that of all the players about 80% of them will pirate the game on the PC platform.

Now, to be clear, I am not saying that these represent lost sales (some do, but that's a borderline insane argument to make IMHO) but is it significant? Do you think that figure sounds high or low?

Here's a set of data from the makers of the cross-platform game 'World of Goo'. This game has a pretty comprehensive demo to play and no DRM. In their first month by analyzing the 'high score' registration IP's they found that 18% were legal purchase players:

http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2008/11/15/world-of-goo-piracy-rate-82/

The piracy rate for consoles is considered to be around 5%, and the margins are a lot better, i.e. the market still accepts a $60 price point while $40 is the average for PC. The console form of piracy is more commercially organized, i.e. counterfeit products rather than 'crackfixes' and the like. PC support and after-sale costs are also about 20% higher than consoles due to the nature of the platform and the poor emphasis given by retailers (those that still stock PC games, as they no longer like to do it as the 2nd hand market has all but gone 100% console now)

Given increasingly decent internet bandwidth speeds, the ease of finding ways to get around Day 0 DRM PC cracks then it's not that hard to see a perspective where the PC is a fairly risky platform to want to spend money developing on when compared to consoles.

What would be your guess of how many of those 80% that pirate the game would have bought it but chose not to, i.e. a real lost sale? How many of those would just 'give in' and pay if they really liked the game but the crack for the DRM didn't work (or got 'out patched/DLC'd). It's a tough one..

The figures I heard in the past for various titles were in the 90-95% range. Same as quoted by Marek Spanel regarding ARMA series, in a recent interview, IIRC.

It was 95%+ back on the C-64 and Amiga 500, too.

My viewpoint

1. Some % get a piracy copy to test then buy if they like
2. Some % actually buy a copy
3. Some % just are pirates.

Then you add this
Of the pirates who are just pirates will never buy a game even if they couldnt find a pirate copy.
A majority of people who pirate likes to collect games (download them but never play like having all copies of madden etc)
A good portion of people are in the catagories 1 & 2
3 is not MORE then 1&2 combined unlike the numbers the lost sales show for the reasons above.

The lost sales is just a % of what "could happen if everyone who pirates will buy". So I never take them seriously.
I would say 1/10 of that number is correct.

Looking at Skyrim sales - and that was a title as easy to copy as anything in the world - it seems a strong product will always find enough buyers to turn a tidy buck.

I am confused by what statistic you want to hear. Anyway, my guest is either you buy it, or you 'acquire' it.


All those exceptions like this one, breaking/losing original media, etc. are (near) negligible, I think.

The biggest problem IMHO is the publisher's fee. A very large part of the final sales price consists of it. How the hell do you think it's possible that Virgin offers space flights? It's definetily not covered by the relatively low cost of such a flight. And even if the middleman would be entirely cut out, prices for a game are still too expensive if they exceed something like 5 EUR (about 8 USD) in West European economies.

Put it like this, I pay 7,50 EUR/month for high speed usenet access with 1000+ days retention. Let's say I download two freshly released games each month: 2 x 45 = 90 EUR. Means I would have to pay more than 10 times the amount for those games compared to alternative means of getting my hands on it. It would take an over idealistic individual with an excessive ethical behavior to feel sorry for 'those poor hard working' developers to spend 10 times more than necessary on a regular base. Also keep in mind that the majority of gamers are students and it's not like they're known for their purchasing power. Which makes sense, I mean, they're students after all. Now, if those same two games would cost a total of 10 EUR, then I could imagine people willing to spend some money for original versions.

Imagine a 0,5L can of prefab soup would suddenly cost 29,95 EUR. Or a pack of 6 buns would be priced at 14,50 EUR. I bet you'll start making your own buns and cook your own soup before the weekend! I understand this is a childish comparison but it really comes down to the same: the option of paying a substantial smaller part of the price or not.

EDIT: I am talking about games now, but movies is even a bigger issue nowadays. And they are seriously too easy to acquire. A BluRay movie costs between 18 EUR and 25 EUR. Downloading takes 20 minutes and you'll get it all, 720p, 1080p, DTS sound, original subtitles, the whole shebang! Guess what, if the movie sucks after 15 minutes of watching, you just pick an another one, instead of having wasted 20 euros on it.

Those 90-95% came froma reliable source or from the same publishers?.

What is the methodology to calculate those rates? A download doesn�t equal to an install, honest costumers have the necessity to download a pirated copy because that same DRM.

In general its tracking of pirated copies being played or it can be total unique users playing or trying to play vs amount of sales.

As in, you have 1 milion people playing at some point, but only 50k copies sold.

In other news:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/20...-at-4-5m-copies

CD project guys estimate 4.5-5 illegal users for every buyer of Witcher 2, but still don't want to hear about DRM.

What I find odd is that the DRM schemes were generally weaker in the past (eg. a photocopier would do) and yet the companies still functioned and made profits. Yet now that invasive DRM is possible we're told that the industry will die without it. I wonder what has changed?

One thing is that its much easier to download stuff now, most people have high speed internet and pirated/cracked copies are easily available on torrents.

Back in the day you would get a game from a friend and copy it / install it but no crack would be available.

Basically, in that past your are referring to, only a small part of the market/economy consisted of products of which counterfeit copies could be made. Like you say, we are talking about paperwork which can be copied and a handful of VCR tapes perhaps. Nowadays, the fraction on the market consisting of products which can be easily copied is much larger. As we have everything digital instead of a tangible product that we can buy from a shop, it's a lot easier to duplicate it. Next to that we have the internet which is ever increasing in size and is a giant enabler to forge counterfeit copies. The dinky toys you played with as a child can not be copied. The latest installment in the Halo series, which supplanted the good old dinky toy, however, can.

Tangible things such as but not limited to hardcopies and so forth are replaced with digital material, granting a grave logistical advantage hence reducing costs. However, with that advantage came the hugely increased vulnerability.

I see your point. However, my comment was related to the flightsim industry.

Remember that it is copy protection, not DRM, the real deterrent to piracy (and only for a critical time window when sales are maximum).

Unfortunately the sim industry have followed the example of the big publishers, because the tools are already disponible, they sell their products through big publishers and for an idea that DRM reinforce its intellectual property as an asset.

I don�t think DRM does any good for the sim industry and it is really unnecessary.

Are you comparing this to shooters? The window for sims is actually much larger timewise - they won't rake in as much money as a shooter at the start, but sales will keep coming in for a long time. So with respect to shooters, you're wronf.



Or maybe they know better than you do.



Yes, it does do good, and it is necessary.

Unfortunately those figures are probably correct. I wish it weren't so but unfortunately a friend of mine (30+ years) is constantly pirating software in spite of how I feel about it. Perfect example would be New Vegas which I paid 150.00 for 3 copies for myself and my two kids. He comes over bragging about his torrented copy and all the DLC he got for free and it damn near brought us to blows. I refuse to play online with him just due to the fact that if I or someone else doesn't purchase it for him he just steals it. He uses the excuse of his unemployment, but the last time I checked Games were a luxury not a necessity.
I'm not blameless either and a few years ago I used the excuse that I needed a "better demo" of rFactor. Upon "acquiring" a 1.1 that worked without trymedia I promptly purchased a license due to Gjon and Companys hard work. Do I think that everyone will react that way? No, as my friend more than demonstrates. I am not in favor of the draconian measures that PC Game publishers have resorted to, but I do understand the reasoning. The problem is that legitimate end users have to resort to shenanigans like "cracks" to get their software to work and as soon as you are there you're only a heartbeat away from Piracy.
The only consolation I draw out of it is that this self same friend gets more Viruses than anyone I know due to his proclivities. Also, good on CDPR as Elanaiba mentioned for continuing to support the DRM Free PC Game, I bought 3 copies of the Witcher 2 including the Collector's Edition and have nothing but nice to say about them.

Yes, I was talking about games at general. I agree with you that sims doesn�t follow that trend. The sim market is different, so why apply the same rules?.



Maybe, but this does not provides anything to the discussion.



I already put my case here:

http://simhq.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/3326285/Is_DRM_really_compatible_or_ne.html#Post3326285

If you like we can dicuss it further.

I am sure people here expects to play COD for years to come, but I am also sure that UBI won�t. The only hope I see for COD is that a serie of expansions obligue the publisher to keep giving support.

Some of the premises your case is based on are simply flat out wrong, so you're still wrong ... what's there to discuss if your case does not reflect reality?

Again, this doesn't help at all.

Hi, Too add my 2 cents.. I have had people I know in the past look Down on me or Question Why I would NOT get Pirated Software as if I was a goof or they kept saying that I pirate at some level so going in deeper would be fine..

But I stand Strong on my Beliefs and If I can NOT afford to Buy it I do NOT pirate it altho it is as easy as hell to get FREE Stuff..

What cracks me up the say all the pirating is Being Done ONLY on PC's that is complete Bull Have these People NOT have heard of Emulators.. Yes believe it they have ALL the lates Games for XBox and Playstation too available for Consoles.. So my Train of thought would suggest they are Pirating the Consoles as much as the PC's..

Heck back in the late 90's I had all kinds of games for the C64 but never realised it was NOT legal..WEll it is just a poor excuse to Pirate stuff. like people say why Buy the Movie/Game if I can DL it from the Internet??

Heck most kids today dont think of doing the Stealing they just say Oh I just got it from the internet.. HaHa no matter how you look at it it is stealing..

But I think a VERY Good Solution has been found in the Way Steel BEasts copy protects it's software with a USB drive.. Ya I know it may some day be cracked but it has Beaten the Best of thge Best out there and still is unbroken to my knowledge to this day.. Thge company that Makes Steel BEasts put it out there for ANY HAcker Groups to TRY and Crack it they where unsuccessfull..

But I have know Well to do people that Pirate software and the like it is just NOT the Unemployed or Students that is a poor excuse either way just save or ask MOMMY and DADDY for it if in College

Heck I am probally near the poorest Person on these Forums but with earnest saving I have aquired the Things I want.. IT is just thst people rather Piss there money away on Booze or something vs saving for the Things they like to NOT hurt the indusry but heck it will always be there and most times the DRM make no sense or maybe they should consider the USB Stick like they use in Steel beasts..

sorry for the rant but this kinda stuff urkks me the wrong way and currently do Frown upon people who do Pirate.. we killed our Hobby and most left probally because of lost sales. I know some companies like say Blizzartd just have Cash Cows with World of Warcraft but hey they deserver it they started small and it blossomed into a Cash Cow it is now. but if we all gotPirated copies and the companies that make the Games/Sims do NOT profit they will NOT Make the Sims/Games no more..

But hopefully more people will see the light and pay for your games..