Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,854
Ohio USA
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Nvidia expects first [full] ray-tracing game by 2023
Morgan McGuire, who works on ray tracing, augmented reality, virtual reality at .. Nvidia, is predicting that by 2023 we will see the first triple-A games will require ray tracing.
"I predict that the first AAA game to REQUIRE a ray-tracing GPU to run will ship in 2023, and every gaming platform will offer accelerated ray-tracing by that year."
Part of the problem is that graphics hardware would have to make a giant leap before we see a fully ray-traced game in the triple-A category.
Both the PlayStation 5 and Project Scarlett (the next flagship Xbox console) will run an AMD Navi GPU that supports ray tracing [expected in 2020].
Others have suggested Full Ray Tracing will take 10 years -- and/or cards 10 times as powerful as now available. Currently, for just a few effects in a game, the resolution and FPS hit is enormous. Moreover, there are other clever ways to get most of the Ray Tracing effect without all the performance hit. Maybe he didn't really mean "full" ray tracing in the sense of every light ray. We'll have to wait and see how 2023 turns out.
Full Ray Tracing will be practical someday. Currently, the limited ray tracing is just for the fun of trying it.
