BLITZ part III

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“All SSBNs are now on station,” HOLMES advised. “The USS Columbia is holding in position at 49.411841 latitude, 172.854078 longitude, about two hundred miles south of the Aleutian Islands and 600 miles east of the Russian Kuril Islands.”

“What is the range of an HSSW nuclear-armed cruise missile?” Carl asked. “Can they hit the Kurils from there?” It would be a logical form of payback. The Russians created a dispute over an island in the Bering Sea, America made its point with an attack on an uninhabited island in the disputed Kurils chain, north of Japan.

“Five hundred and twenty miles. It cannot strike Russian territory from its current position with an HSSW. It does however carry ICBMs which are well within range.”

“The Ambassador says it’s a ‘shot across the bows’ – a warning,” Carl said. “They can get their point across with a nuclear detonation in the open sea.”

“On the basis of her information I have upgraded that likelihood from 12% to 13.5% percent since yesterday,” HOLMES replied.

“I thought you liked her,” Carl remarked.

“Please rephrase, I do not understand.”

“I’m betting she’s right.”

“You have a 13.5% chance of winning.”

“Forget it.”

“The President is about to make an announcement, shall I bring it onscreen?” HOLMES asked.

“Really? Yes please.” Carl tilted the screen and leaned back in his chair.

He hadn’t voted for the guy who was staring out at him from behind his desk in the Oval Office. But then, he hadn’t voted for anyone, so he only had himself to blame that in the middle of the biggest military crisis of the century, their Commander in Chief was a 75 year old whose sole military experience was as a platoon leader for the 3rd U.S. Infantry Regiment, guarding Arlington National Cemetery in Northern Virginia. He had demonstrated his temperament in the Turkey-Syrian conflict, cutting loose the Emirates as allies when they refused to allow him to base US aircraft there – a decision which unfortunately moved them into the Russian sphere. Williams had to hope President Fenner had cooler heads around him, but if Ambassador McCarthy was right, it wasn’t certain he did.

“My fellow citizens,” Fenner began. He had a pinched, narrow face and long nose, atop which sat small round rimless glasses of a type that had been fashionable several years ago. His bushy silver hair was swept across his forehead and looked like it was held in place by solid epoxy. “At this hour, I have taken steps to free our citizens on Saint Lawrence and to defend the world from a grave danger.”

"As you would be aware, for the last several weeks, under the guise of moving to protect the rights of international shipping in the Bering Strait, Russian forces have occupied the US territory of Saint Lawrence Island, to which we responded forcefully with regrettable loss of life on both sides. Russia has since escalated the conflict further and attacked US Air Force bases at Fairbanks and Anchorage. We have again responded to Russian military aggression in kind, with successful attacks on Russia’s front line offensive airfields at Anadyr and Lavrentiya.”

The President paused and Carl realized he was allowing this last news to sink in, because until now, it had not been public.

“This escalation cannot be allowed to continue. It stops, today.

“At 0800 hours Eastern Standard Time I advised President Navalny of Russia, that unless he began withdrawing his troops from Saint Lawrence by 1200 hours, he would witness a demonstration of force the like of which the world has not seen for nearly 100 years. As there was no indication that President Navalny tried to comply with this demand, I have authorized our navy to conduct the first ever live demonstration of a hypersonic missile-borne nuclear weapon - the first atmospheric nuclear weapons test by the United States since 1962. The test will take place in three hours, over the North Pacific Sea.

“While it will pose no threat to humankind, it will wreak terrible environmental devastation, and we deeply regret it has come to this. But I am afraid that unless Russia is persuaded to halt its military misadventure over Alaska and the Bering Strait, even greater catastrophe awaits us.” Fenner looked straight down the barrel of the camera. “President Navalny, withdraw your troops. The United States stands ready to use any and all of the weapons in its arsenal to defend its sovereign territory.

"My fellow citizens, the dangers to our country and the world will be overcome. We will pass through this time of peril and carry on the work of peace. We will defend our country and we will prevail.
"May God bless our country and all who defend her."

The camera faded to some shocked news anchors, mute for possibly the first time in their lives.

Carl turned down the sound, leaned back and whistled.

There was a very strict NSA rule about not using the organization’s bandwidth and resources for private purposes. Carl regarded it as more of a guideline. He wasn’t a big investor, but he had all of his non-401(K) savings invested in stocks. So yesterday, he had gotten HOLMES to analyze the likely impact on the stock market of a US nuclear weapons test in the context of the current conflict.

When he’d finished reading HOLMES conclusions, he’d gone straight online, sold everything he had, leveraged himself to the eyeballs and had bought gold. Not gold futures, or gold mining stocks, he’d bought real gold. 535,000 dollars’ worth in one ounce South African Krugerrand from a bullion dealer in Moscow, which were now stashed in a duffel bag under combination lock in the filing cabinet of his office. Because HOLMES conclusion had been that while a US nuclear test in itself wouldn’t necessarily mean Armageddon for the planet, it certainly would be the equivalent of a cosmic meteor strike on the stock market.

He sat and watched his screen for a few minutes as the Dow reacted to the Presidents’ address. Blood red numbers started filling one window. A second window showed the spot price for gold. OK, so that’s what the end of the world looks like. He turned the screen off. By the end of the day, if HOLMES projections were right, he’d be able to pay off his loans, and he’d still be a millionaire, even accounting for the spread when he tried to sell some of his 300 Krugerrand again.

Of course, there was the small matter of whether anyone would be alive to trade with, but he’d deal with that problem when he got there. Or not.

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(C) 2018 Fred 'Heinkill' Williams. To Be Continued.

(PS for history buffs, the US President's speech above is fashioned on one made by John F Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis... but much shorter because...Twitter generation)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgdUgzAWcrw


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