as we hear about osa fragments ! they are like steel balls ! like shotgun firing ! so number 2 is better answer but here is same question !
with miss distance 5 meter ... target could be kill with explosion wave ? so from 5 meters + explosion wave + some of balls fragments ! kill percent going to high level !
this is easy question but for me hard to say
PS: Epap@ OSA warhead have how many of explosion degrees ? this question could be help us to say true answer !!!!
I also like your approach ,
BUT the PS has already answered to you with pm long time ago. ...piston79 will be right one more time, I guess...