Folks,

As night drew on, and, from the crest
Of wooded knolls that ridged the west,
The sun, a snow-blown traveler, sank
From sight beneath the smothering bank,
We piled, with care, our nightly stack
Of wood against the chimney-back, --
The oaken log, green, huge, and thick,
And on its top the stout back-stick;
The knotty forestick laid apart,
And filled between with curious art

From "SNOWBOUND"
By: Whittier

It is not customary even in January, to see flurries of anything save chicken feathers or dandruff around Lizard Lick. Yet we have already had a few snow flurries today and a good deal more is expected as temps plummet to -7 C./20 F. or even lower tonight. The Oija board crowd has been suffering of late from several missed weather forecasts so I am not too worried that we do not have snow plows in our town. There is plenty of time if it becomes necessary to sprinkle rock salt on the steps and round up all the chilly critters.

Although weather forecasting seems impressively scientific enough with all those weather satellites, animated weather maps with their isobars, high and low pressure symbols and let us not forget the Dual Doppler 5000 RADAR that no weatherman worth a grain of road salt can do without. Computer models have been painstakingly created from code that includes the weather patterns and data from way back to when old Noah first looked up at a darkening sky and said...."Damn, it looks like it might rain."

Nonetheless, of late, they seem to be struggling just a tad. Perhaps it is more of an art after all? Or I suppose the climate may be shifting and thus rendering all those expensive weather models almost useless. When they tell us that there is a 30% chance of rain this means that over the ages the prevailing weather conditions produced rain 3 times out of ten. Wouldn't it be nicer if they could say with certainty something like... "You lot planning that pond-side birthday party at 221 B Baker Street had better bring your brollies and mind the hailstones. 2300 of those beastly crystals precisely 2.01" in diameter will begin falling over your picnic table at 3:12:00 PM.

There are still not enough reporting stations for absolute pinpoint accuracy they say. I wonder if this is true since those weather satellites in geosynchronous orbit must cover every inch of mud, sand, clay and frozen tundra from the North Pole to McMurdo Station. Sometimes the forecasts still seem a bit generalized and we have gotten used to that. When they say it will be raining buckets, I get the feeling that, although it may not actually rain at my house, if I just drive a few blocks in any direction there will probably be a deluge of Biblical proportions going on.

Dependability and accuracy is what is required these days. They do their best and that is usually good enough. Yet I am sure they want perfection. I suppose that one day soon they will be knocking on everyone's door asking if they can poke about on their property, bury some cables, top off a few trees and put a big, silver disk that beeps as it revolves 360 degrees every minute up on their roofs. Once this is done perhaps the local forecasts may greatly improve. ;\)



Originally Registered January,2001 Member Number 3044

"Blessed are they who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed" - Edmond Gwenn, "The Trouble With Harry"

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