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#4371298 - 07/27/17 06:31 PM The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz  
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jack72 Offline
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This was sent to me in an email so I don't have the link from the original site. but it's is fascinating





In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are…… There have always been the 3 constants ... Death, Taxes and CHANGE!
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponic will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating
insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half


- I know those voices in my head are not real, but man they have some good ideas.

- I never killed anyone, but I have read a large number of obituaries with great satisfaction.

- If I cannot make it to your funeral, I will certainly send a message indicating my approval.

- Most of my Friends are Imaginary

- Time is money, so I decided to sell my watch.
Inline advert (2nd and 3rd post)

#4371303 - 07/27/17 06:43 PM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
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"Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields."


Yes and then you'll have millions of unemployed low skilled workers in those Third World Countries with most likely no other industry to fall back on. Yay!



"Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!"


Um...no. Switching to Bitcoin means national central banks giving up control. Ain't gonna happen. At least not within the next 100 years or so.


"Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time."


Yes this will happen while at the same time global population will be increasing well beyond its current 7 billion level. Oh and the majority of those new jobs will be highly technical/highly skilled jobs that not everyone will be able to do and those jobs will be much less in number than the "legacy" jobs that disappeared.


"Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100."


National governments better start seriously thinking about increasing the age of eligibility for both publicly funded pension plans and also publicly funded senior healthcare plans like Medicare.


Fun times...

Last edited by PanzerMeyer; 07/27/17 06:53 PM.

“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4371347 - 07/28/17 01:13 AM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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Must be true, it was in an e-mail and they have a website!

Let's talk more important stuff. How far can the Leafs go in the post season this time around?


What kind of car is that? What does it matter? When I drive it, I'm Steve McQueen
#4371355 - 07/28/17 02:11 AM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: 462cid]  
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Originally Posted by 462cid
Must be true, it was in an e-mail and they have a website!

Let's talk more important stuff. How far can the Leafs go in the post season this time around?


I would be in heaven if there were a Leafs / Edmonton Stanley Cup final (also a first round sweep knock out of Pittsburgh). Sorry couldn't resist.

#4371403 - 07/28/17 11:37 AM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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The letter is clearly written from the POV of a software engineer. He/She envisions technical solutions to all industrial fields and wants software companies to be the only needed players designing future products. Nice agenda. Reminds me somehow like they said the Titanic will be unsinkable and an example for all future ships. Pure hybris. What's next? Google and Amazon making the next President?
Silicon valley has a strong position to influence politics and society, but I didn't elect them. So I don't want them to have too much influence.
And nobody could foretell 10 years ago how the world is now. Even 5 years is not possible.


"It's people like you that give people like you a bad name!"
- Jessica Jones
#4371405 - 07/28/17 11:48 AM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.


Check!

Also, soon ground unicorn horn will be available to cure every known disease on earth.


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I am not there, never have been or ever will be, but the fruitless search may be more gratifying then the "content" you might otherwise be exposed to.

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#4371407 - 07/28/17 12:21 PM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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Actually this is clearly a chainmail written by a dullard with nothing better to do.

Aside from the numerous spelling mistakes, almost none of the figures presented in the email are correct, and the author repeatedly jumps to conclusions about how certain things will be in the future without any evidence or stats to back up why he or she believes those things will come to be.


If you want to see the future of technology or some type of service, look at what industries or companies on the stock market have the highest gains backed up by real earnings or profits.
If you want to see what industries are going to disappear or shrink, do the same as the above but look for companies with no real earnings or profits to back up their high prices. These companies and their related industries usually get culled out every time the market corrects.

$100 agricultural robot, I'm sure that's coming soon. You might have to talk to John Deere or Kubota about that first though.

#4371408 - 07/28/17 12:29 PM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: VF9_Longbow]  
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PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
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Originally Posted by VF9_Longbow

If you want to see what industries are going to disappear or shrink, do the same as the above but look for companies with no real earnings or profits to back up their high prices. These companies and their related industries usually get culled out every time the market corrects.

.



+1


Radio Shack
Sears/Kmart
Barnes & Nobles
IBM

Just to name a few...


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4371411 - 07/28/17 12:47 PM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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While I don't accept all of the assertions in that missive, it appears to be largely well thought out and supported pretty well by what we already know.

I went looking for a link to the original interview. There are a number of web pages citing the same "recent interview", but I wasn't having any luck finding the interview, or a writer indicating they had conducted it. It was not an exhaustive search, however. What I did find was that somebody had reposted it to LinkedIn, and down in the comments somebody pointed to what appears to be earlier work that fed into it. https://www.facebook.com/udo.gollub/posts/10207978845381135 That appears to be Udo Gollub's summation of what he gleaned from the Singularity University summit in Germany, 2016.

None of that is take away from the concepts being discussed. The continuing advance of computer power and other technology is propelling big changes. I think it is fair to say that the rate of change has been accelerating during my lifetime, and I think it is shortsighted to blow off those predictions. They may be off on the timing, or misjudging the resistance to acceptance of some of it... but I do think most of this stuff is coming.

#4371433 - 07/28/17 02:11 PM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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jack72 Offline
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Yes, I also agree that these changes are coming.
Don't know if the timeline is exact, but nobody can predict exactly.

Sufficed to say companies that don't embrace new technology don't survive in the current world. (best example is the Taxi industry, kept doing business without embracing technology and is quickly being overtaken by Uber) And the Uber concept can be applied in so many ways...i.e. Snowplow contracts. Also look at bookstores. The ones that didn't embrace online shopping are out of business. Shopping malls will be a thing of the past because of online ordering. (i.e. Sears, and other large multi-product retailers will be gone the way of the dinosaurs, small brick and mortar boutique stores will also disappear as people order more online than go shopping, landlords of strip mall will be hit and a trickle effect occurs with industry that services them).

Perhaps not everything that the article says will happen as it says, but the bottom line is there is a major shift in employment that will happen and if you don't embrace the change now. you will be out of work very soon to those that did.


- I know those voices in my head are not real, but man they have some good ideas.

- I never killed anyone, but I have read a large number of obituaries with great satisfaction.

- If I cannot make it to your funeral, I will certainly send a message indicating my approval.

- Most of my Friends are Imaginary

- Time is money, so I decided to sell my watch.
#4371434 - 07/28/17 02:16 PM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 121,383
PanzerMeyer Online centaurian
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PanzerMeyer  Online Centaurian
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Originally Posted by jack72
Shopping malls will be a thing of the past because of online ordering. (i.e. Sears, and other large multi-product retailers will be gone the way of the dinosaurs, small brick and mortar boutique stores will also disappear as people order more online than go shopping, landlords of strip mall will be hit and a trickle effect occurs with industry that services them).



Shopping malls will not go entirely away but they will be much less in number and the yypes of stores they will have will be quite different. Malls are starting to have more and more restaurants and clubs and less traditional stores. In other words, people are still willing to go to malls for the "social experience" so hence the restaurants and clubs. Malls are trying to offer things that you can't replicate or get online.

Last edited by PanzerMeyer; 07/28/17 02:20 PM.

“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4371528 - 07/29/17 01:52 AM Re: The future by the Management Board of Daimler Benz [Re: jack72]  
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Businesses that made horrible business choices literally for generations- like Sears- deserve to die. As a teenager employed there in the 1980s I couldn't see how a company with the attitude of "people will always come here, so we don't need to change focus or improve" was even in business then. When a 17 year old sees the problem just by working a six hour shift three days a week, there's trouble.

And as an adult, just when I see they started to offer fair quality goods at a fair price in a lot of instances, it is too little, too late. I can't tell you how many quality kids' clothes I bought there from 2007 to 2016, but the Too Big To Fail mentality had poisoned the well for too many years.

Tear them down and put Tesla dealerships in their place. I like gas power better (hell I want carburetors to come back), but Tesla scares hell out of the Big Three, and that terror might prompt one of them to be a legitimate great company again instead of just pretty damn good. And that means Ford if you ask me, and I'm a GM guy, too.


What kind of car is that? What does it matter? When I drive it, I'm Steve McQueen

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