I think all coastal merchants(and all other merhcants as well), regardless of nationality, has the same shape. So you won't be able to ID it's nationality by silhouette. I don't know what realism level you're playing on, but i(a noob)play at very easy as of yet, and the method i use to ID nationality is by the map. Red for enemy, Green for neutral, and friendly i don't know yet since i've never ran into one.