Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
Regarding future competition:
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Cannon Lake was supposed to be Gen 7
Intel's 10nm is two years late
Intel hasn't announced its 10nm processors, despite us expecting them before the end of 2017. While there is a good indication that we shall see 10nm from Intel in 2018, it means that Chipzilla is two years behind with 10nm..
The original plan was to follow up with the 7th generation in 10nm and give it the codename Cannon Lake...
The Tick Tock strategy today looks like Tick – Tock – Refresh – Refresh..
Meanwhile, the successor of Ryzen [expected Q1 or Q2 2018] should use the 12nm optimised 14nm manufacturing process from the GlobalFoundries, but it won’t bring significant leaps in performance..
It seems Intel will have 10nm ahead of AMD 7nm. Some have speculated that Intel 10nm will perform on a par with AMD 7nm (not likely to arrive before 2019).
I noticed Newegg has an Nvidia GTX 1080 for $545 after rebate. The cheapest RX Vega I found at Amazon was over $1000 -- and Newegg was "sold out" of RX Vega (when last I looked). RX580 is still obtainable but somewhat overpriced.
I see Ryzen 1800X (8C/16T) for $350 more often now -- seems like the new price one should shoot for.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
On the competition front:
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NVIDIA Prohibits Use Of GeForce [gaming] GPUs In Datacenters, Only Blockchain [mining] Processing Allowed
NVIDIA made a pretty big change in its GeForce EULA recently and this is something that could go on to cost a lot of entities an aggregate of millions if not billions of dollars in the long run.
..most of [Nvidia's] lineup isn’t exactly ideal for mining (you would want a Vega for that) so they really aren’t under threat of loosing precious supply to mining..
Basically, Nvidia wants professional users to buy only their Professional GPUs. Previously, many professionals used Nvidia gaming GPUs -- sometimes by the hundreds.
The article has the details for anyone interested. Mostly, this will not affect SimHQ gamers.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
Competitors working together:
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Intel’s Top Kaby Lake-G Core i7-8809G Chip Officially Listed – Packs [AMD] RX Vega Graphics, Quad Core CPU and 100W TDP
The product packs a 4 core, 8 thread CPU that is based on the Kaby Lake architecture so we are looking at a 14nm+ process over here. The CPU is clocked at 3.1 GHz, right now we cannot confirm whether this is the base or boost speed. As far as the GPU is concerned, the chip will pack the AMD Radeon RX Vega M GH graphics and will also have the on-die Intel HD graphics 630 (iGPU) within the CPU itself.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
Things don't always go perfectly:
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Intel stuff-up forces redesign of Windows and Linux [and Apple's 64-bit macOS]
The bad news is that Intel processors will take a performance hit of between five to 30 percent [after the fix is implemented]..
Word on the Street is that the flaw is in the Intel x86 hardware, and it appears a microcode update can't address it..
AMD processor[s do] not have the [problem]..
It will be interesting to see what the new [Intel] benchmarks will be..
We'll see if the above is overstated when the benchmarks arrive -- after the Windows patch. On paper, AMD Ryzen could wind up faster than some (not all) of Intel's latest -- clock-for-clock. Hard for me to believe -- use a lot of salt on this one.
But, AMD is not flawless. In today's news:
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AMD Acknowledges DirectX 9 Game Breaking Bug in Adrenaline Release – Assures Fix in Next Driver Update
According to users on various sites, the games cannot even be started with the latest driver installed...
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
Official Responses from Google and CPU Manufacturers to potential hacking issue -- the fix for which is said to cause CPU slowdown:
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Google
These vulnerabilities affect many CPUs, including those from AMD, ARM, and Intel, as well as the devices and operating systems running them..
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AMD
Variant / AMD Response Matrix
Google Project Zero (GPZ)
Research Title Details
Variant One: Bounds Check Bypass - Resolved by software / OS updates to be made available by system vendors and manufacturers. Negligible performance impact expected.
Variant Two: Branch Target Injection - Differences in AMD architecture mean there is a near zero risk of exploitation of this variant. Vulnerability to Variant 2 has not been demonstrated on AMD processors to date.
Variant Three: Rogue Data Cache Load - Zero AMD vulnerability due to AMD architecture differences.
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ARM
Our Cortex-M processors, which are pervasive in low-power, connected IoT devices, are not impacted.
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Intel
Recent reports that these exploits are caused by a “bug” or a “flaw” and are unique to Intel products are incorrect. Based on the analysis to date, many types of computing devices — with many different vendors’ processors and operating systems — are susceptible to these exploits.
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Microsoft
We are in the process of deploying mitigations to cloud services and have also released security updates to protect Windows customers ,,
So far, the official statements indicate this is mostly an Intel issue. The fix will slow down some applications. I wonder if the "fix" will also slow down AMD and ARM.
We'll see next week - if the W10 fix becomes available and sites test different CPUs for impact. Single player, offline gaming and other single user, offline tasks may be little affected (but, that's speculation).
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
At least one online game has been impacted by Intel CPU usage (may be temporary). Their provided chart seems to indicate substantially increased CPU usage.
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Epic: Fortnite Service Instability and Login Issues Caused by Intel CPU Meltdown Issues
Down below you’ll find a chart showcasing CPU usage following Intel’s recent security updates, as posted by Epic:
“Unexpected issues may occur with our services over the next week as the cloud services we use are updated. ...”
If impacts like that become common it may impact the "Future Status of AMD" by increasing sales of data center AMD CPUs -- for new data centers built in the near future (they are always being built).
Long term, Intel will fix this by redesigning their CPU hardware circuits. This was not a CPU design "bug". Apparently, it was a CPU "feature" they've had for a decade -- that unexpectedly was found to be "hackable".
Still interested to see if the quick fixes also impact AMD. The new software may not "ask" what CPU its running on. It might implement the same changes for all CPUs.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
More AMD news from CES. Upcoming products officially discussed and timeline given.
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AMD Radeon Graphics Roadmap Update: 7nm Vega in 2018, Navi in 2019, Followed By “Next-Gen”, New Vega Instinct Announced
..there is a 7nm Vega shrink being made and it will be landing sooner than you think. The company also announced a new 7nm Vega Instinct accelerator for machine learning applications..
7nm RX Vega chips sampled end of 2018. If they work, 7nm RX Vega on sale early 2019 -- starting with a "machine learning" variant. 7nm Navi a year later.
However, the rumored April 2018 release of 12nm RX Vega cards will not happen (I wanted one). 12nm Ryzen WILL happen in April (I may get one).
AMD is betting on 7nm. IF they "meet schedule" (does not always happen), then they get a jump on the competition.
A couple official charts with overview GPU and CPU schedules.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
I expected something like this. A not "fully tested on AMD CPUs" patch put out by Microsoft to fix an Intel CPU hardware problem.
They indicate they will not automatically update AMD PCs with the patch -- until they can provide a patch that doesn't break things on AMD machines. But, it may still slow down AMD unnecessarily, I imagine.
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Microsoft withdraws Spectre and Meltdown patch that's borking AMD machines
"Microsoft has reports of customers with some AMD devices getting into an unbootable state after installing recent Windows operating system security updates," the company claimed.
"To prevent AMD customers from getting into an unbootable state, Microsoft will temporarily pause sending the following Windows operating system updates to devices with impacted AMD processors at this time."
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
More of the same type stuff. Things are not going well. But, from Microsoft, it has more traction.
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Microsoft says pre Skylake chips will suffer badly from security patch
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Spectre and Meltdown patch freezes AMD machines
The patches should have no impact on AMD. But they do, so far.
In a complex code situation, it's hard to fix some things without breaking other things (as we who code know).
If they get it fixed right (no AMD impacts where none should be), Intel CPUs will lose some or all of their small "Instructions Per Clock" (single core) advantage over AMD Ryzen CPUs (depending on game or application). We'll see.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
To be fair to Intel -- they aren't writing the Microsoft code that borks AMD products. And, at CES they have a technology that caught my eye (since I'm an AI fanboy, from afar -- or is that "fangeezer").
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Intel Announces ‘Loihi’ A Revolutionary Neuromorphic ‘Self-Learning’ Chip Which Can Simulate 130 Million Synapses
The first such project is the ‘Intel Loihi’ chip, which is basically a neuromorphic processor, aka a self-learning one. Just like human brains create neural paths over time which is what eventually constitutes our iQ and problem solving capability, this chip will be able to “learn” and have around 130,000 neurons and 130 million synapses (an anology of course)..
AMD won't be competing in the Neuromorphic market very soon.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
Seems no-one is safe from the above mentioned security holes -- even GPUs.
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Nvidia's admits its GPUs are affected by Spectre flaws
Given Nvidia shares GPU architecture across all its graphics tech, from GeForce gaming cards to enterprise-grade Quadro and Tesla chips, it seems a whole host of Nvidia kit is affected by Spectre..
Spectre is more difficult to exploit and there are no reports of it being used outside of lab and proof-of-concept cyber attacks..
But Nvidia still has to plug the security hole even if it could affect the performance of its GPUs, as is the case with other fixes for Spectre and Meltdown, ..
So, its not that anyone will "attack" an Nvidia GPU -- that's may be too hard to do -- even without protective code. However, Nvidia must make themselves "bulletproof" with protective code -- and the fix may impair their GPUs' normal operation.
I don't know about AMD GPUs, yet -- nothing will surprise me.
Again, none of these "flaws" are likely to be exploited for Intel, Nvidia, or AMD. What worries is that the code changes (required to make exploitation impossible) will damage performance for all 3 manufacturers -- to differing amounts.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
Intel has put out a chart showing how each generation of Intel CPU is affected by the fixes (to above discussed issues).
They tested multiple generations of Intel CPU with several common benchmarks.
Some gaming related stuff is impacted. The impacts are generally small (0 to a few percent).
I would like to see a similar chart by AMD. Again, AMD not supposed to be impacted. But, so far, the Microsoft fix for Intel CPUs caused serious AMD CPU problems (as noted above).
Intel official chart attached (original is small print).
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
Now the for-Intel-patches are causing issues for some Intel users.
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Intel promises better transparency as Meltdown patches cause Broadwell/Haswell borkage
Some users of Intel's older Broadwell and Haswell CPUs have been quick to complain that since installing patches -- they have experienced increased reboots.
The little I have read implies almost everything will be sorted out in a month or two -- but not a week tor two.
My personal concern remains the lack of RX Vega GPUs at reasonable prices. No idea when that one will actually be fixed.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
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AMD’s Scott Wasson talks about the future of Radeon
I listened. He said nothing we don't know.
When specifically asked about when RX Vega will actually be available to buy in quantity -- his answer was actually non-committal. I would like to hear what's really going on behind the scenes. Seems something is wrong.
He strongly implied -- no more RX Vega reference cards. Those were all made by AMD, I once read. Sellers just put their logos on them. Apparently, AMD won't make them anymore for some unspoken reason.
For now, look for overpriced but often sold out custom RX Vega cards.
Looks like Nvidia has the higher end market (RX Vega vs 1070 and up) to themselves for a few more months -- and maybe much longer.
Competition is good -- but on high end GPUs there will be no competition for months
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
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Intel Preps Their Own Discrete GPUs For Gen 12 and 13 Codenamed Arctic Sound and Jupiter Sound – Will Be Featured in Post-Cannonlake Chips Replacing AMD’s dGPU Solutions
..we can expect the chips to arrive not earlier than 2020 or possibly even [later] .. [Intel also] now working on actual discrete GPUs which they will pit against their counterparts (NVIDIA & AMD) in the future.
Since they now have AMD's former GPU guru (Raja Koduri (Ex Senior VP and Chief Architect at AMD)) on the Intel staff (and thereby know AMD's plans and secrets), I assume Intel will have a competitive product for sale in the 2020 to 2021 time frame.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
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High End Graphics Card Reach Insane Price Levels: NVIDIA’s GTX 1080 Ti Going For $1599 and AMD’s Vega 64 For $2099
2017 saw GPU pricing becoming a pain in the neck with AMD’s Vega graphic cards and it looks like 2018 is all set to make last year’s pricing look positively cute..
Interestingly, the reason behind the price gouging of both products is different. AMD’s Vega 64 is simply a beast at XMR mining...
NVIDIA high end graphics cards on the other hand are up right now because of lack of competition. They aren’t that profitable at mining ..
.. memory saw a spike recently which was expected to trickle down to customers eventually. But this is something that has more to do with the mining boom ..
In brief, due to cryptocurrency mining, all (AMD and Nvidia) higher performance GPUs will continue to cost more than they are worth to most gamers (at least, AMD will).
In the past, I was a "happy camper" because AMD offered the most overall value (bang per buck). But, AMD's outstanding ability in "compute" tasks has destroyed AMD's "gamer's market" precisely because of "bang per buck" (cryptocurrency miners are in it for the money). Even Nvidia fans are "paying the price".
I keep harping on this topic because it will define the GPU market for the foreseeable future -- for AMD and Nvidia fans. Hope i'm wrong in my non-expert evaluation of the situation.
Allen
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 8,856
Ohio USA
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AMD RX Vega 64 Owner Sells Card For $1200, Buys Nvidia Titan Xp Collectors Edition For $1138
This should come as no surprise, as Ethereum and other GPU minable cryptocurrencies have converted the GPU, a typical PC gaming product, into a money printing machine. The situation has gotten so insane that owners of nearly any modern mid-range to high-end graphics card today can sell their hardware overnight for a 100%+ profit on Ebay...
One per customer. It was in-stock for a few minutes -- then, as I watched it sold out. I wouldn't mind paying $550
Anyhow, I did buy an AMD GPU today. A half-height (for HTPC) RX550 2GB for $100. Not a bargain. But, in the budget.
EDIT: WOW! I just checked my order status (being shipped). That card I just paid $100 for is now $130. WOW, that was quick. I would not buy it for $130.