beware of bears

I recently sold many stock positions into cash. Now is not the time to purchase more.

Ripe for a market correction. I am happy with how the market is going now. I think that the economy is basically doing well but the market needs to come back to reality for a little bit before it continues its upward trend.

Look at a 120 year history of the US stock markets and you will see that it has never gone down. It has its bad periods, but overall, it only ever goes up, and considering the 100+ years of proof behind that, I'm not going to bet against it.

Wait a bit for a correction. When stocks go down 15-30%, buy everything you can get your hands on while it's cheap and enjoy the ride up once it inevitably recovers and soars a few years later.

Look at cyclical mineral or natural resource stocks if you are itching to buy. They will skyrocket if the market tanks.

Commodities are also very interesting right now. Look at corn prices vs corn stock levels (Physical corn currently in storage) there is a huge discrepancy. The moment the next bad market hits in combination with a bad harvest the corn commodity price is going to shoot through the roof like it did 2010-2012 style.

I think Haggart is the type of guy who would go see "Schindler's List" on a first date and listen to "The Final Cut" by Pink Floyd while working out.

lol ! Panzer I'm only a short distance from 15,000 posts - i have to make it there !


I've never purchased single farm commodities VF9 but i do have an agro-business ETF

be careful with general agro biz. while certain agro is very likely to go up, others are likely to go down. with an ETC you just average over everything which could result in mediocre or bad performance.

take a close look at stock (i mean physical stores of the commodity) vs the current price. whenever there is a big discrepancy it is time to think about buying and holding for a few years.

i believe the world is in for some tight times with its food supply given the fact that world leaders don't give a damn about it and the average joe will laugh at you for thinking food shortages are going to be a problem in this day and age, but if you look at any area of political unrest in the past 20 years you'll see a distinct correlation between food availability (and price) and the level of political disturbance or even violence.

make sure your ETF is in the right kind of stocks or commodities and not just tracking a bunch of randoms.

Where's Bill Grant's joke posts to even this out?

As for a first date movie,I went with The Exorcist

Wow, you're old!

VF9 this is the ETF i have ....MOO VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF

holdings:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/moo/holdings

if you recommend adding another one or keeping the one i have let me know - thanks

We've been used to mediocre production far too long. The USA is a monster.

There's always selling when there's been buying, that's natural. But 23k is too low. Americans haven't seen what the US is capable of for a loooong time.

BTW, I told everyone to buy Facebook when it was $30-$50. FB will make you a millionaire if you hang on to it for 10 years, like I told ya a couple years ago. It'll easily hit $500 within the next 3 years. Stock will split and so forth... Just like Google, Amazon, etc..

i wouldn't go too far.

right now the market average is slightly higher than average earnings.

this means people are in slight euphoric bubble mode. given that a major market correction historically happens every 5-7 years, we are overdue for one, whether it is rational or not. once that correction happens the market will be clear to steam ahead.

be wary of soaring peaks that are far in excess of earnings and growth.

I'm buying more than I'm selling. As long as bears are shouting at the top of their lungs the market is doomed, I'm not too worried.

Certainly is not a good time to invest on corn.

not yet, but it is worth watching carefully. we just came off a period of extreme corn prices.
almost every time there is a recession in the US the prices of corn go up - the last time it went up was due to other factors, but again considering the fact that the economy is overdue for a market recession, even if small, it's very likely they will go up.

http://www.macrotrends.net/2532/corn-prices-historical-chart-data

always think long term, 5-10-20 years.

But NAFTA could be dead. A trade war looms and in that case corn will be a casualty.

no

in fact the opposite of what you're saying is more likely to occur.

as i mentioned, corn prices tend to rocket every time political or economic instability occur.

think about it a while.

everything we do depends on corn. animal feed, ethanol, etc. etc.

I don't know if this market will hit a DOW of 24,000 before a correction but I decided to sell a lot into cash today before the market close

If I told you the market was at Ice Cream, and might be at Pizza tomorrow, would you sell?

Confusing eh? The markets are influenced a lot by emotions. Some people love Ice Cream so they'll buy, others love Pizza so they'll buy tomorrow.

The title of this thread is an example. As if 23k itself is some kind of evil demon. People tend to forget that the market goes up and up and up and up... it always has, ALWAYS will. Look at a historical chart. Don't let emotions tell you how to trade.

well if it does make it to 24,0000 or S&P 2,600+ .....when the correction does come I'll pounce on it near the bottom - that's the game plan anyway

The rules of the market are simple...

When everyone is saying buy or miss out--the talking heads, television, news--that's a clear sell signal. Sell asap!

When everyone is saying sell, it's the end of the world, the sky is falling--that's a signal to buy.

When half of the folks are saying sell and the other half are saying buy, like now, that means don't fight the tape, and the market likely has room to go higher.


Market is 1/2 logical(male), 1/2 emotional(female). It is rarely all of one or the other, so, you must treat it as such.

Wonder what your wife think about this.