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#4377516 - 09/02/17 12:48 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Winfield]  
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Originally Posted by Winfield
Originally Posted by mdwa
Are there spikes in multiplayer numbers that correlate with these sales?



I can't join a server.....I see ED has implemented a server queue like the BF series. All these FC3 aircraft on MP servers are making it impossible to join.

best of playing all the campaigns ED have released over the last several sales instead.

I can't wait till ED release their Premium Edition so I can jump the queue...


PMSL , good one dude



Ferengi Rule of acquisition #1 Once you have their money ... never give it back.

Inline advert (2nd and 3rd post)

#4377537 - 09/02/17 03:14 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Paradaz]  
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Originally Posted by Paradaz
only that ED have been doing this sales for so long now that it's an almost non-stop barrage to the point very few people (at least expressing an interest in the title and resident on the forums) show very little interest.


That's not really surprising. The forum represents a small group of hardcore buyers mostly. If you counted only the number of people regularly on the forum, how many sales would you expect DCS to make from just those people? Could ED even remain in business?

Quote
If repeat buys are minimal, do you think they're really getting an influx of new people every other week? If that was the case they wouldn't need to have these sales every fortnight as there would be no need to reduce the price.


Look at it this way, if they always have a sale then they maximize the chance of a random new player showing up and going "wow these prices are low now, this must be a good time to buy". In essence, they could be using the sale price as normal price and expect most sales to happen when a module is discounted. A guess on my part, but it sounds reasonable. Also keep in mind that some portion of new players will continue to like DCS and some portion of players that like DCS will buy more modules. So the sale won't just affect the brand new player that visits ED's site for the first time, but also the player that visited ED's site for the first time 1-2 months ago and comes back. There is a constantly flow of new players to fill up these positions, but I have no idea how many people there are.


Quote
If people were holding out for a sale to buy modules, they'd own them all by now.

Those around from the beginning, but not everyone else.

Quote
You seem to be very naive about ED's history of overpromising, under-delivering and being completely incompetent and incapable with their release dates, progress and communication.

I've been on ED's forum for nearly 10 years now. I saw them miss SoH dates and move development targets. I saw them cease communicating due to negative forum response, and I've seen them be a little over reactive to some forum posts. There are fair criticisms of ED, but the Su-33 PFM isn't bothering me.

#4377591 - 09/02/17 11:28 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Exorcet]  
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Originally Posted by Exorcet
Right. So like the steam example I can't say that this is conclusive proof of anything. It hints at a possible explanation, but nothing more. An accurate answer would require some actual research. I also feel this way about your use of the newsletters. Maybe ED is having sales because they aren't making a profit and don't know what to do. That's not the only possible explanation and I would not consider it to be particularly likely unless some other evidence came with it, like actual sales figures.

Right. So like the Steam example, it's an empty exercise. Red herring. I find it funny that you're confident to call out our conclusions based on evidence but you don't have the balls to present your own.... maybe because whatever you put forward has nothing to back it up?

Maybe ED is having a sale because they need the money. Maybe ED is having a sale because they have so much money and they can afford to be giving the modules away at half price. Both are logical possibilities, but which one is more likely, absent of sales figures? Hmmm.... tough call....


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Repeat buys happen, but I imagine that they aren't very common. The sales aren't meant to make buyers purchase again, they are to encourage those who have yet to purchase for various reasons like limited interest in a particular model or people completely new to DCS. Myself as an example, while I tend to buy most modules early I've held out for sales on those models that I didn't intend to use as much, such as the helicopters. I feel like I probably own an above average percentage of DCS modules so I'd think that there are a fare number of people who would do the same on a larger number of modules.

When was the last time ED put out a module? The Viggen on March? Early Access for Viggen on January... nothing else for this year... Now how many sales have we had?

30 Dec 2016 - quite a few modules at 50-60% off
6 Jan 2017 - bonus points up to 60% off
13 Jan 2017 - module + Nevada extravaganza
20 Jan 2017 - Nevada extravaganza continues
3 Feb 2017 - Nevada + WWII aircraft bundle
10 Feb 2017 - mini sale, A10C + CA, A10C + FC3
17 Feb 2017 - bundle sale
22 Feb 2017 - Defender of the Fatherland sale
17 Mar 2017 - Nevada + F5, Nevada + CA mini sale
24 Mar 2017 - Nevada + F5 (deja vu?), F5 + FC, bonus points on Nevada and FC
31 Mar 2017 - Viggen release, Viggen + Nevada/FC3/CA sale
7 Apr 2017 - Error in URL? Newsletter shows the Easter sale but email shows A10A + Su25, Su-27 + F-15C + Su-27 campaign mini sale
14 Apr 2017 - Easter sale, most modules 40% off
21 Apr 2017 - image shows 14 April as date even though newsletter was out 21 April... anyway, Easter sale continues
28 Apr 2017 - Mi-8 mini sale
5 May 2017 - Victory Day in Europe sale
12 May 2017 - Victory Day sale continues
19 May 2017 - WWII and CA sale
9 Jun 2017 - WWII bundle deals
23 Jun 2017 - WWII sale
30 Jun 2017 - WWII sale continues, CA + WWII Asset Pack, CA + Normandy + Asset Pack sale
7 Jul 2017 - CA + XXXX sale continues
14 Jul 2017 - Summer Sale, 50% off most modules
21 Jul 2017 - Summer Sale continues, bundle sales added
28 Jul 2017 - Spit + Normandy + Asset Pack mini sale
4 Aug 2017 - Nevada, A10C, F15C, campaign sale
11 Aug 2017 - bonus points up to 60% off
18 Aug 2017 - Nevada + Huey/F5/Mi-8 sale
1 Sept 2017 - Knowledge Day sale, bundle sale

I guess ED is very, very keen to get those "on the fence" to commit and buy, huh? Why have the usual Spring/Summer/Fall/Winter sale when you can have 3-4 sales per month?! smile Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the "few" sales we've had this year?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
That's not really surprising. The forum represents a small group of hardcore buyers mostly. If you counted only the number of people regularly on the forum, how many sales would you expect DCS to make from just those people? Could ED even remain in business?

Strawman.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Look at it this way, if they always have a sale then they maximize the chance of a random new player showing up and going "wow these prices are low now, this must be a good time to buy". In essence, they could be using the sale price as normal price and expect most sales to happen when a module is discounted. A guess on my part, but it sounds reasonable.

Hahahahahahahahaha..... Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha... you put up a guess with little evidence aside from "it sounds reasonable" but reject a more logical explanation backed with more evidence. I thought you didn't want to say anything barring a release of actual sales figures? Hypocrite much?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Also keep in mind that some portion of new players will continue to like DCS and some portion of players that like DCS will buy more modules. So the sale won't just affect the brand new player that visits ED's site for the first time, but also the player that visited ED's site for the first time 1-2 months ago and comes back. There is a constantly flow of new players to fill up these positions, but I have no idea how many people there are.

Again, we're not talking about player influx or player returning after a hiatus... We're talking about quick market saturation yet repeated sale after sale after sale...


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Those around from the beginning, but not everyone else.

How "new" do you think then? A few weeks? Because we have a sale almost every week.... not that I have a shred of evidence of that claim, mind you... Let's take our Mr. Hypothetical, interested in FC3... starting from 30 Dec 2016, he's had 9 opportunities to buy FC3 in some sale or bundle deal... adding opportunities to use bonus points, that's another 2-3 chances. I guess it's too mean to get new players to wait 2-3 months for a good sale on a module they don't want to buy at full price, huh?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I've been on ED's forum for nearly 10 years now. I saw them miss SoH dates and move development targets. I saw them cease communicating due to negative forum response, and I've seen them be a little over reactive to some forum posts. There are fair criticisms of ED, but the Su-33 PFM isn't bothering me.

Naiveté has nothing to do with length of forum membership....


- Ice
#4377618 - 09/03/17 01:57 AM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: - Ice]  
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Originally Posted by - Ice
Right. So like the Steam example, it's an empty exercise. Red herring. I find it funny that you're confident to call out our conclusions based on evidence but you don't have the balls to present your own.... maybe because whatever you put forward has nothing to back it up?

Whatever it is, it's on the same level as your evidence.

Quote
Maybe ED is having a sale because they need the money. Maybe ED is having a sale because they have so much money and they can afford to be giving the modules away at half price. Both are logical possibilities, but which one is more likely, absent of sales figures? Hmmm.... tough call....
Well I don't care much about the second option since no one has mentioned anything like it in this thread, at least as far as I've seen. On the first option it's as likely as the sales being a result of ED's market analysis leading them to believe that the rapid sales cycles maximizes the profit from modules.


Quote

When was the last time ED put out a module?

What does that have to do with the portion of my post that you quoted? Are modules bought by all potential buyers on or near release? The last module could have been released in 2010, that wouldn't mean that there would be no buyers today or that every buyer owned every module.

Quote
The Viggen on March? Early Access for Viggen on January... nothing else for this year... Now how many sales have we had?

30 Dec 2016 - quite a few modules at 50-60% off
6 Jan 2017 - bonus points up to 60% off
13 Jan 2017 - module + Nevada extravaganza
20 Jan 2017 - Nevada extravaganza continues
3 Feb 2017 - Nevada + WWII aircraft bundle
10 Feb 2017 - mini sale, A10C + CA, A10C + FC3
17 Feb 2017 - bundle sale
22 Feb 2017 - Defender of the Fatherland sale
17 Mar 2017 - Nevada + F5, Nevada + CA mini sale
24 Mar 2017 - Nevada + F5 (deja vu?), F5 + FC, bonus points on Nevada and FC
31 Mar 2017 - Viggen release, Viggen + Nevada/FC3/CA sale
7 Apr 2017 - Error in URL? Newsletter shows the Easter sale but email shows A10A + Su25, Su-27 + F-15C + Su-27 campaign mini sale
14 Apr 2017 - Easter sale, most modules 40% off
21 Apr 2017 - image shows 14 April as date even though newsletter was out 21 April... anyway, Easter sale continues
28 Apr 2017 - Mi-8 mini sale
5 May 2017 - Victory Day in Europe sale
12 May 2017 - Victory Day sale continues
19 May 2017 - WWII and CA sale
9 Jun 2017 - WWII bundle deals
23 Jun 2017 - WWII sale
30 Jun 2017 - WWII sale continues, CA + WWII Asset Pack, CA + Normandy + Asset Pack sale
7 Jul 2017 - CA + XXXX sale continues
14 Jul 2017 - Summer Sale, 50% off most modules
21 Jul 2017 - Summer Sale continues, bundle sales added
28 Jul 2017 - Spit + Normandy + Asset Pack mini sale
4 Aug 2017 - Nevada, A10C, F15C, campaign sale
11 Aug 2017 - bonus points up to 60% off
18 Aug 2017 - Nevada + Huey/F5/Mi-8 sale
1 Sept 2017 - Knowledge Day sale, bundle sale

I guess ED is very, very keen to get those "on the fence" to commit and buy, huh? Why have the usual Spring/Summer/Fall/Winter sale when you can have 3-4 sales per month?! smile Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the "few" sales we've had this year?


I've been putting an explanation forward for ED's sales continually in my posts. I don't know how you can say there have been few sales, clearly that's not the case.


Quote

Strawman.

A strawman is a misrepresentation of someone's argument. Not a counterpoint. No strawmen present, except maybe the above mention of "few" sales by you. If that is seriously the reason for the lack of understanding here, then I'm really confused. Did you think that I was saying that ED was not having sales often? I must have missed a serious typo.


Quote

Hahahahahahahahaha..... Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha... you put up a guess with little evidence aside from "it sounds reasonable" but reject a more logical explanation backed with more evidence. I thought you didn't want to say anything barring a release of actual sales figures? Hypocrite much?

You've yet to post evidence of ED's financial situation. You just keep pointing out ED's sales strategy and guess at a reason behind it. That's fine, but it's only speculation.


Quote

Again, we're not talking about player influx or player returning after a hiatus... We're talking about quick market saturation yet repeated sale after sale after sale...

We're discussing how ED's sale strategy could work. I've provided an explanation, it looks relevant to me. It directly related to what we're discussing.


Quote

How "new" do you think then? A few weeks? Because we have a sale almost every week.... not that I have a shred of evidence of that claim, mind you... Let's take our Mr. Hypothetical, interested in FC3... starting from 30 Dec 2016, he's had 9 opportunities to buy FC3 in some sale or bundle deal... adding opportunities to use bonus points, that's another 2-3 chances. I guess it's too mean to get new players to wait 2-3 months for a good sale on a module they don't want to buy at full price, huh?

Like I've said the consumer base is a continuum. There are players 1 day new, 1 week new, 1 month new, 1 year new, and everything in between. Some of them have had 9 sale opportunities, OK. What does that tell us?


Quote

Naiveté has nothing to do with length of forum membership....

It's also not compatible with a display of knowledge.

#4377691 - 09/03/17 09:54 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Exorcet]  
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Originally Posted by Exorcet
Originally Posted by - Ice
Right. So like the Steam example, it's an empty exercise. Red herring. I find it funny that you're confident to call out our conclusions based on evidence but you don't have the balls to present your own.... maybe because whatever you put forward has nothing to back it up?

Whatever it is, it's on the same level as your evidence.

Pfft!! Where is it then? Or do you think just claiming "it's on the same level" makes it so? You do know this is not how this works, right?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Well I don't care much about the second option since no one has mentioned anything like it in this thread, at least as far as I've seen. On the first option it's as likely as the sales being a result of ED's market analysis leading them to believe that the rapid sales cycles maximizes the profit from modules.

Wow... you're quick to change your tone again... I thought you weren't willing to consider anything pending actual sales figures??


Originally Posted by Exorcet
What does that have to do with the portion of my post that you quoted? Are modules bought by all potential buyers on or near release? The last module could have been released in 2010, that wouldn't mean that there would be no buyers today or that every buyer owned every module.

Damn, I have to explain every little detail to you, do I? The "last release of module" is meant to establish a timeline both for the latest release and for all previous modules. The last module could have been released in 2010, true... what I'm trying to establish here is that modules CONSTANTLY go on sale... if an "on the fence" buyer for a module, say FC3, only had 2 opportunities to buy FC 3 since it's release, then I can see the point of offering FC3 again in case this person or someone else wants to buy it at a lower price. If the FC3 module has been on sale 9x over a span of 8 months, then I can't really see anyone still "on the fence" regarding the module... maybe just the few new players that have joined in the 3 weeks that FC3 has not been on sale, but that's it. Market saturation.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I've been putting an explanation forward for ED's sales continually in my posts. I don't know how you can say there have been few sales, clearly that's not the case.

Ok, let me try again... and try to answer the question this time and not focus on something else....
Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the MANY sales we've had this year? Please do try to have evidence this time, and none of that "it's a logical possibility" nonsense.

Also, you seem to miss the sarcasm very easily, don't you? Among the many other things you continually miss.....


Originally Posted by Exorcet
A strawman is a misrepresentation of someone's argument. Not a counterpoint. No strawmen present, except maybe the above mention of "few" sales by you. If that is seriously the reason for the lack of understanding here, then I'm really confused. Did you think that I was saying that ED was not having sales often? I must have missed a serious typo.

A shot and a miss again.
Paradaz was talking about ED's continual sales and that there's little interest for it now, at least as evidenced by expression of interest in the forum
You then counter that the forum members is only a small group of people and ED could not remain in business if that's all they sold to.
Paradaz was not talking about ED being in business based of forum member count, he was talking about the continual sales that have little expressed demand or interest.

Straw man - A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent.

You missed way, way more than just a typo.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
You've yet to post evidence of ED's financial situation. You just keep pointing out ED's sales strategy and guess at a reason behind it. That's fine, but it's only speculation.

And what in God's good name gave you the idea that this is solid proof of ED's financial situation? I explicitly said that we won't get ED's sales data... this is our POSSIBLE EXPLANATION, our CONCLUSIONS, our THEORY, our INFORMED OPINION of ED's state of affairs based on what we can see... in my case, specifically from newsletters. What you continually fail to comprehend is that my conclusion is based on this as evidence and while I am open to other reasonable conclusions, I expect them to be based on some form of evidence as well, not just some "it's a logical possibility" nonsense you keep spouting. You can continue saying "no, -Ice, you're wrong" but if that's as far as you go, if you can't offer an alternative with evidence, if you can't come up with anything else but "you may be wrong," then you're not really up for discussion, you're just really trolling.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
We're discussing how ED's sale strategy could work. I've provided an explanation, it looks relevant to me. It directly related to what we're discussing.

Wow.... just a claim, and then "it looks relevant to me." No other explanation? What other market have you seen that offers sales every week for an inventory of 23-25 items? What other market have you seen that offers this limited inventory at 50% off for a good number of times? To call this "ED's sale strategy" is like calling a rout a "strategic advance to the rear."



Originally Posted by Exorcet
Like I've said the consumer base is a continuum. There are players 1 day new, 1 week new, 1 month new, 1 year new, and everything in between. Some of them have had 9 sale opportunities, OK. What does that tell us?

Nice try, but you've just side-stepped my questions there. Try again, bud.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
Naiveté has nothing to do with length of forum membership....

It's also not compatible with a display of knowledge.

Yes... apparently not. smile
I hope it didn't hurt too much when you shot yourself in the foot.


- Ice
#4377707 - 09/04/17 12:53 AM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: - Ice]  
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Originally Posted by - Ice

Pfft!! Where is it then? Or do you think just claiming "it's on the same level" makes it so? You do know this is not how this works, right?

At least you agreed with me in this latest post. We don't have sales data, so ED's financial situation is speculation on our part. From the beginning what I've said is that the newsletter is does not prove that ED is in a desperate situation. That's it. I supported my ideas with some admittedly loosely relevant data, but what you're trying to draw from ED's frequent sales is a really big stretch.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Well I don't care much about the second option since no one has mentioned anything like it in this thread, at least as far as I've seen. On the first option it's as likely as the sales being a result of ED's market analysis leading them to believe that the rapid sales cycles maximizes the profit from modules.

Wow... you're quick to change your tone again... I thought you weren't willing to consider anything pending actual sales figures??



Quote
Damn, I have to explain every little detail to you, do I? The "last release of module" is meant to establish a timeline both for the latest release and for all previous modules. The last module could have been released in 2010, true... what I'm trying to establish here is that modules CONSTANTLY go on sale... if an "on the fence" buyer for a module, say FC3, only had 2 opportunities to buy FC 3 since it's release, then I can see the point of offering FC3 again in case this person or someone else wants to buy it at a lower price. If the FC3 module has been on sale 9x over a span of 8 months, then I can't really see anyone still "on the fence" regarding the module... maybe just the few new players that have joined in the 3 weeks that FC3 has not been on sale, but that's it. Market saturation.

I have the same reply to this as that you quoted. Unless the last customer ED will ever see joined 8 or however many months ago, then there's a chance that any given sale is the first sale that the player sees when deciding to buy a given module. 2 opportunities is no more reasonable than 8 or 16 or 256, you're just assuming that some number of sales is reasonable without any justification.


Quote

Ok, let me try again... and try to answer the question this time and not focus on something else....
Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the MANY sales we've had this year? Please do try to have evidence this time, and none of that "it's a logical possibility" nonsense.

Again, it's everything I've said already.


Quote

Paradaz was talking about ED's continual sales and that there's little interest for it now, at least as evidenced by expression of interest in the forum
You then counter that the forum members is only a small group of people and ED could not remain in business if that's all they sold to.

No, I pointed out that the forum members is only a small group and asked a rhetorical question highlighting that their opinions and feelings probably don't drive ED's sales by themselves. So the forums might be unhappy. That doesn't mean the majority of ED's customer base is unhappy.

Quote
Paradaz was not talking about ED being in business based of forum member count, he was talking about the continual sales that have little expressed demand or interest.

You can gauge forum interest by looking at the forum. You can't gauge the entire consumer interest by looking at the forum, that's the point I made.


Quote

And what in God's good name gave you the idea that this is solid proof of ED's financial situation? I explicitly said that we won't get ED's sales data... this is our POSSIBLE EXPLANATION, our CONCLUSIONS, our THEORY, our INFORMED OPINION of ED's state of affairs based on what we can see... in my case, specifically from newsletters.

If that's the case, then I'm at fault for misunderstanding, sorry.

Quote
You can continue saying "no, -Ice, you're wrong" but if that's as far as you go, if you can't offer an alternative with evidence, if you can't come up with anything else but "you may be wrong," then you're not really up for discussion, you're just really trolling.


I can just say that you're wrong if you don't supply your claims with evidence (don't worry, keep reading). Apparently I was mistaken and thought that you were more sure of your position than you actually were. I thought that you were saying ED is certainly in trouble, hence sales. Due to that misunderstanding I called you out due to a lack of evidence, and it seems like we both agree that there is no evidence to support that claim.

I never said that your position is impossible - that you are total wrong, I said that I don't think it's the only explanation.


Quote

Wow.... just a claim, and then "it looks relevant to me." No other explanation? What other market have you seen that offers sales every week for an inventory of 23-25 items? What other market have you seen that offers this limited inventory at 50% off for a good number of times? To call this "ED's sale strategy" is like calling a rout a "strategic advance to the rear."

My reddit link contains an example, or at least reasoning behind high frequency sales.



Quote

Nice try, but you've just side-stepped my questions there. Try again, bud.

That waiting 2 months is too mean? No it's not. The question wasn't really worth answering because I think it missed my point. You can have some hypothetical guy that has seen so many FC3 sales that they cause sickness. That doesn't mean that the sales aren't driving other people to buy more modules.


Quote

Yes... apparently not. smile
I hope it didn't hurt too much when you shot yourself in the foot.

What's the point here? I provided examples backing up Paradaz's point to show that I know some of what was meant. Why pretend that my statement had a period after "10 years" and no words after?

#4377744 - 09/04/17 11:21 AM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
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I like this gem....

[Linked Image]

least that is something we can all agree on.

#4377773 - 09/04/17 03:13 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Winfield]  
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Originally Posted by Winfield
I like this gem....

[Linked Image]

least that is something we can all agree on.




My name is Exorcet. It's a common mistake.

#4377795 - 09/04/17 06:05 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Exorcet]  
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Originally Posted by Exorcet
Originally Posted by - Ice

Pfft!! Where is it then? Or do you think just claiming "it's on the same level" makes it so? You do know this is not how this works, right?

At least you agreed with me in this latest post. We don't have sales data, so ED's financial situation is speculation on our part. From the beginning what I've said is that the newsletter is does not prove that ED is in a desperate situation. That's it. I supported my ideas with some admittedly loosely relevant data, but what you're trying to draw from ED's frequent sales is a really big stretch.

Side-stepping again. WHERE IS **YOUR** DATA?

As a direct answer to your response above, yes, all we have is speculation. Do we know for sure that ED is financially stable? Nope, but the constant sales doesn't really inspire confidence. We won't really have a solid answer pending sales figures release... and even then, we'd need to know ED's overheads. Do we know for sure that Su-33 hasn't affected other projects? Nope, but the constant delays to the Hornet, 2.5, etc. doesn't really do much to convince otherwise.

I say ED is not in a good position financially hence the constant sales and the evidence is clear as day on the newsletters. Are you saying ED is in a good position financially? Where is your evidence for this statement?
If all you're saying is that we are doing speculation, well, congratulations Captain Obvious. If you insist on sales data and overhead expenses before you make a statement, then maybe you should stay silent until you have that data. If you insist on that level of certainty, then this discussion isn't for you. Good luck making your way into ED's board of directors; I doubt you'll get your data any other way.

I also cannot help but laugh with your last statement.... my evidence is there, plain as can be, yet you refute it. Your ideas, however, is only backed up by "hey, it's possible!" duh


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I have the same reply to this as that you quoted. Unless the last customer ED will ever see joined 8 or however many months ago, then there's a chance that any given sale is the first sale that the player sees when deciding to buy a given module. 2 opportunities is no more reasonable than 8 or 16 or 256, you're just assuming that some number of sales is reasonable without any justification.

Yeah, 2 opportunities is equal to 8 opportunites is equal to 16 opportunities is equal to 256 opportunities.... with logic like that, who needs evidence, right?
*I feel the need to point out that the above statement is expected to be read with sarcasm... otherwise, you may miss my point yet again.*


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
Ok, let me try again... and try to answer the question this time and not focus on something else....
Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the MANY sales we've had this year? Please do try to have evidence this time, and none of that "it's a logical possibility" nonsense.

Again, it's everything I've said already.

There's a lot that you've said.... answer the question here directly...
Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the MANY sales we've had this year? Please do try to have evidence this time, and none of that "it's a logical possibility" nonsense.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
No, I pointed out that the forum members is only a small group and asked a rhetorical question highlighting that their opinions and feelings probably don't drive ED's sales by themselves. So the forums might be unhappy. That doesn't mean the majority of ED's customer base is unhappy.

You can gauge forum interest by looking at the forum. You can't gauge the entire consumer interest by looking at the forum, that's the point I made.

We agree that not all of ED's customer base is active on the forum, yes? ED could have 200 forum members, but have had 2,000 distinct sales... or 4,000.... whatever. The numbers are not important, the idea is that there is an active, vocal group of customers and that these people are only a part of the entire customer base. We agree on that, right?

Now answer me this --- if the vocal customers are unhappy and the silent customers are silent, then how do you know if the silent customers are happy or unhappy? They could agree with the vocal dissent and thus remain silent, they could not agree with the vocal dissent but choose to remain silent, or they could have bought the modules, only play occasionally, and never really visit the forums and are thus silent. Are you telling me ED should not listen to the vocal customer base and instead listen to those that are silent???

Second question --- If you can't gauge entire consumer interest by looking at the forum, then how are you supposed to gauge interest? How exactly do you propose ED to get feedback from those who are not providing feedback?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
If that's the case, then I'm at fault for misunderstanding, sorry.

Great! Now try that approach on the other points I'm making....


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I can just say that you're wrong if you don't supply your claims with evidence (don't worry, keep reading). Apparently I was mistaken and thought that you were more sure of your position than you actually were. I thought that you were saying ED is certainly in trouble, hence sales. Due to that misunderstanding I called you out due to a lack of evidence, and it seems like we both agree that there is no evidence to support that claim.

You thought I had sales data? Nope. But that does not mean the newsletters are not evidence... it is a FACT that ED has sale after sale after sale after sale. When a store or company does this to its entire range of products this often and this long, would you as an investor think that the company is financially healthy? Apply that to the bigger picture.... missed deadlines --- deadlines which were set by ED themselves! ---, projects that are YEARS late, dissatisfaction being rampant on non-ED forums, constant purging on ED forums, three dev branches, and so on... would you be confident in the financial stability of such a company?

Also, I appreciate that you called me out.... what is interesting is that you called me out just to call me out. You have nothing to give merit to your opposing view, all you have is "it's a logical possibility. Trolling at its best.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I never said that your position is impossible - that you are total wrong, I said that I don't think it's the only explanation.

It isn't, and I agree. There could be other explanations. But where is your backup for these other explanations? I may not be correct with my explanation, sure, but given what we can see, it's the one with the most merit. Just because your explanation is "logical," if it doesn't have proof, then it doesn't carry as much merit. Give me one solid explanation with something, anything to back it up, and our discussion could be more fruitful.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
My reddit link contains an example, or at least reasoning behind high frequency sales.

A story about a totally different type of company selling a totally different type of product line..... and you call my "sales = desperation" a really big stretch? Hahahahahahaha....


Originally Posted by Exorcet
That waiting 2 months is too mean? No it's not. The question wasn't really worth answering because I think it missed my point. You can have some hypothetical guy that has seen so many FC3 sales that they cause sickness. That doesn't mean that the sales aren't driving other people to buy more modules.

Whoops!! Missed again. Third time lucky maybe?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
What's the point here? I provided examples backing up Paradaz's point to show that I know some of what was meant. Why pretend that my statement had a period after "10 years" and no words after?

The point is that you are naive about ED.... you countered that you've been a member since 2010 and have seen them miss dates and so on... so I said being naive has nothing to do with length of forum membership.... you could be a member for 10 years but still be naive.... and then you proceeded to shoot yourself in the foot again by saying it has nothing to do with display of knowledge.... which is what you've been doing so far.

You didn't know about ED's constant sales, and when made aware of it, you still think ED is in a healthy financial situation as it continually offers its modules at 50-60% off.
You insist on having hard numbers to come to a conclusion, but you participate in a discussion making informed speculations. Not only that, you feel as if you're in a position to refute these speculations, yet have nothing substantial to offer in return.
You've shifted conversation from 1.5.7 vs. 1.5.6.... to the update process.... to 2.5.
You went from FC3 to A2A only to single-aircraft-only in an attempt to prove a point.
You've engaged in at least two red herring exercises.
You aren't bothered by ED's incompetence because it doesn't affect you, yet you fail to see how you and every single DCS customer would benefit if ED showed a little direction.

seehearspeak


- Ice
#4377806 - 09/04/17 07:40 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 85
Exorcet Offline
Junior Member
Exorcet  Offline
Junior Member

Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 85
Originally Posted by - Ice

Side-stepping again. WHERE IS **YOUR** DATA?

You don't need data to point out a hole in someone else's argument. But again I'll remind you of my reddit link that supports the idea that constant sales is a winning strategy for a successful business.


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I say ED is not in a good position financially hence the constant sales and the evidence is clear as day on the newsletters. Are you saying ED is in a good position financially? Where is your evidence for this statement?
If all you're saying is that we are doing speculation, well, congratulations Captain Obvious. If you insist on sales data and overhead expenses before you make a statement, then maybe you should stay silent until you have that data. If you insist on that level of certainty, then this discussion isn't for you. Good luck making your way into ED's board of directors; I doubt you'll get your data any other way.

I can't say what ED's financial situation is, there is no data. I'd insist on data if someone is saying that ED is in financial trouble, if no one is, then it's fine to just speculate. Yes it's obvious, yet it still sparked this multiple post discussion.

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I also cannot help but laugh with your last statement.... my evidence is there, plain as can be, yet you refute it. Your ideas, however, is only backed up by "hey, it's possible!" duh

That's enough to challenge an unsupported idea. Although I did support my side of the argument anyway.


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Yeah, 2 opportunities is equal to 8 opportunites is equal to 16 opportunities is equal to 256 opportunities.... with logic like that, who needs evidence, right?

Like I said, 2, 8, 16, whatever. Why is x number of sales too many?


Quote

There's a lot that you've said.... answer the question here directly...
Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the MANY sales we've had this year? Please do try to have evidence this time, and none of that "it's a logical possibility" nonsense.

The explanation is that constant sales produces a higher number of consumer purchases/expenditure than not having sales. Which would give ED literally no reason to not have sales.

Evidence, see my reddit link

I forgot what the link was, so here's another link on the same story
http://business.time.com/2012/03/29/maybe-shoppers-dont-want-fair-and-square-prices-after-all/



Quote

We agree that not all of ED's customer base is active on the forum, yes? ED could have 200 forum members, but have had 2,000 distinct sales... or 4,000.... whatever. The numbers are not important, the idea is that there is an active, vocal group of customers and that these people are only a part of the entire customer base. We agree on that, right?

Now answer me this --- if the vocal customers are unhappy and the silent customers are silent, then how do you know if the silent customers are happy or unhappy? They could agree with the vocal dissent and thus remain silent, they could not agree with the vocal dissent but choose to remain silent, or they could have bought the modules, only play occasionally, and never really visit the forums and are thus silent. Are you telling me ED should not listen to the vocal customer base and instead listen to those that are silent???

Second question --- If you can't gauge entire consumer interest by looking at the forum, then how are you supposed to gauge interest? How exactly do you propose ED to get feedback from those who are not providing feedback?

We don't know if the off forum customers are happy, right. ED potentially has more information on them though (module sale trends, online ratings/reviews, etc). I'd like ED to listen to forum feedback, I post there and I've tried to highlight a lot of problems with DCS. I can't expect the forum to completely drive ED's decision making though.

You obviously can't gather feedback from people who don't give feedback. The forum is not all feedback though.


Quote

Great! Now try that approach on the other points I'm making....

It's not like I haven't tried. I'm still not here to win an argument and at this point I'm really only posting to respect your replies and clear up misunderstandings. Maybe it's me, but I don't think the quality of communication has been very good between us.


Quote

You thought I had sales data? Nope.

I thought you were doing more than speculating. I knew you most likely didn't have sales data, which is why I disagreed with your position.

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But that does not mean the newsletters are not evidence... it is a FACT that ED has sale after sale after sale after sale.

Alright, but evidence of what? The newsletters are evidence of sales, no one has denied that. They aren't evidence of financial status. Constant discounts don't tell you anything and I've provided information that suggests that it's a healthy process for a business.

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When a store or company does this to its entire range of products this often and this long, would you as an investor think that the company is financially healthy?

I wouldn't link it to financial status at all. What I would link to financial status is the result of the discounts. What do you think investors did when JCP stopped having constant sales and lost money?


Quote
Apply that to the bigger picture.... missed deadlines --- deadlines which were set by ED themselves! ---, projects that are YEARS late, dissatisfaction being rampant on non-ED forums, constant purging on ED forums, three dev branches, and so on... would you be confident in the financial stability of such a company?

Missed deadlines, a problem. Not related to the discounts in any obvious way. Although ED has clearly stated that things can change. That's easy enough for a consumer like me to accept when an explanation comes along with the delay. I do miss when they were a bit more communicative. If they're clear on why things happen, such as the Nevada map being rebuilt, then it's not such a big deal. They were being an honest business and working to make things better for their buyers.

Rampant dissatisfaction? That I haven't seen, but if it existed it could be a problem.


Quote
Also, I appreciate that you called me out.... what is interesting is that you called me out just to call me out. You have nothing to give merit to your opposing view, all you have is "it's a logical possibility. Trolling at its best.

I called you out because I saw you say something silly. It turns out I misinterpreted you. I'll give you some more benefit of the doubt next time.


Quote

It isn't, and I agree. There could be other explanations. But where is your backup for these other explanations? I may not be correct with my explanation, sure, but given what we can see, it's the one with the most merit.

I can't agree with it having the most merit. There just isn't anything that links the discounts to ED's financial situation. Until there is I can't see how they would be used to even guess at the health of ED.

Quote
Just because your explanation is "logical," if it doesn't have proof, then it doesn't carry as much merit. Give me one solid explanation with something, anything to back it up, and our discussion could be more fruitful.

You have to understand what I was trying to do. If an event has more than one explanation, you can't conclusively say what is going on. I didn't come into the thread to say what ED's situation was. I just responded to what I thought was an overly confident statement. What I said is fairly obvious and trivial, as you point out, if you're just speculating. I'm fine with moving on and discussion the merits or cons of ED having sales all the time.



Quote

A story about a totally different type of company selling a totally different type of product line..... and you call my "sales = desperation" a really big stretch? Hahahahahahaha....

Yes, a totally different company. It still does what I said, it shows that there are cases where consumers prefer sales to fixed prices. You can argue that it may not apply to the sim market. I would argue that too if someone said that the JCP thing is certain proof that discounts are always beneficial or a sign of good health.

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You didn't know about ED's constant sales, and when made aware of it, you still think ED is in a healthy financial situation as it continually offers its modules at 50-60% off.

I said that sales every [week, I don't remember exactly what time period you specified] was an exaggeration. You even admitted it was, if only slightly.

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You insist on having hard numbers to come to a conclusion, but you participate in a discussion making informed speculations. Not only that, you feel as if you're in a position to refute these speculations, yet have nothing substantial to offer in return.

I insist on hard numbers for more than speculation.

Quote
You've shifted conversation from 1.5.7 vs. 1.5.6.... to the update process.... to 2.5.

Did not happen.

Quote
You went from FC3 to A2A only to single-aircraft-only in an attempt to prove a point.

Did not happen.

Quote
You've engaged in at least two red herring exercises.

Did not happen.

Quote
You aren't bothered by ED's incompetence because it doesn't affect you, yet you fail to see how you and every single DCS customer would benefit if ED showed a little direction.

Then why do my posts say otherwise? The only thing I have not done is call ED incompetent. I wouldn't say that they are. I don't always agree with their direction though.

#4377826 - 09/04/17 09:49 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Exorcet]  
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 16,082
- Ice Offline
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- Ice  Offline
Veteran

Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 16,082
Philippines / North East UK
Originally Posted by Exorcet
You don't need data to point out a hole in someone else's argument.

Oh, you're just pointing out a hole? Then sure... I never claimed my argument was watertight.... but were you really just pointing out a hole?

Originally Posted by Exorcet
From the beginning what I've said is that the newsletter is does not prove that ED is in a desperate situation. That's it.

That doesn't quite sound like "pointing out a hole." That sounds more like an outright "no, your argument is wrong."


Originally Posted by Exorcet
But again I'll remind you of my reddit link that supports the idea that constant sales is a winning strategy for a successful business.

I'll remind you again how invalid your link is.... just because "constant sales" is a "winning strategy" does not mean anyone who uses it is "winning." They say something like 9 out of 10 businesses fail... I guess those 9 businesses didn't have constant sales, huh?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I can't say what ED's financial situation is, there is no data.

"I have nothing to say, but I'll spend absurd amounts of time saying that I have nothing to say."


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I'd insist on data if someone is saying that ED is in financial trouble, if no one is, then it's fine to just speculate.

I'd help you pull your foot out of your mouth but I'm too busy laughing. biggrin


Originally Posted by Exorcet
That's enough to challenge an unsupported idea. Although I did support my side of the argument anyway.

Claim after claim after claim after claim.... with nothing to show for it. I wonder who is spouting "unsupported ideas"...


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Like I said, 2, 8, 16, whatever. Why is x number of sales too many?

Miss! Try again!


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
There's a lot that you've said.... answer the question here directly...
Now, Exocet, if you could do me a kind favor.... barring release of actual sales figures, because God knows we're never getting that data, what other "possible explanations" can you put forward regarding the MANY sales we've had this year? Please do try to have evidence this time, and none of that "it's a logical possibility" nonsense.

The explanation is that constant sales produces a higher number of consumer purchases/expenditure than not having sales. Which would give ED literally no reason to not have sales.

Proof? Like I said, I'm expecting more than "it's a logical possibility." Please "support your side of the argument" properly.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Evidence, see my reddit link

Hahahahahaha..... so a JC Penny study is "evidence" for ED's actions, but ED's newsletters aren't "evidence" for ED's actions....


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I forgot what the link was, so here's another link on the same story
http://business.time.com/2012/03/29/maybe-shoppers-dont-want-fair-and-square-prices-after-all/

I think we've already established that JC Penny caters to a totally different market and provides a totally different line of product(s). If you have a similar study for high fidelity simulations, then maybe you have something...



Originally Posted by Exorcet
We don't know if the off forum customers are happy, right.

Ok, we agree on that.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
ED potentially has more information on them though (module sale trends, online ratings/reviews, etc). I'd like ED to listen to forum feedback, I post there and I've tried to highlight a lot of problems with DCS. I can't expect the forum to completely drive ED's decision making though.

Firstly, sales are just that... sales. A person could've bought a module and he was happy with it... or he wasn't happy with it.... or it just wasn't his cup of tea. AAA titles could sell millions of copies but still be a flop, Indie titles could sell fewer but be super successful.

For Honor topped the charts when it was released on February this year with generally positive reception and reviews. It was reported to have sold 40K copies in it's first week in Japan and something like 700K copies across all three platforms. Wow! Awesome, right? Well, let's see how the game is doing.... according to the player count over time, For Honor had 35-40K players per hour average on its initial release week which quickly dwindled down to 7-8K per hour a month later... a loss of around 80% of the players. A month later,, it's down to around 3-4K per hour... this is April, two months after game release. It went down to around 2-3K/hr then spiked to 4K/hr mid-May due to a new patch being released, then goes back down to 1-1.5K/hr until mid-August, again for a patch release and new content, but only to around 8-9K/rh and only for a few days, quickly going back down to 2-4K/hr and more recently, 2-2.5K/hr. With an all-time highest peak of 72K/hr players or average of 56K/hr at that same time period, going down to a 3K/hr high now is only 4.167% of it's player base or if we look at averages, 2.5K/hr average now is 4.464%.

Compare this data with a Free to Play game like War Thunder with an almost constant 8K/hr average player base over the past year and about 10K/hr average player base since May 2015.... I guess the Free to Play business model works, huh?

Second, online ratings/reviews could very well be made by a vocal member of the forum.... after all, why would he make a review but not participate in the forum, right? "Logical possibility" and all that. So you end up counting the same guy twice. Also, why count a review but not an active forum member? Isn't a positive or negative feedback in a forum or online store like Steam essentially a "review" of the game?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
You obviously can't gather feedback from people who don't give feedback. The forum is not all feedback though.

duh Your feet must really, really hurt by now. You said you can't gauge interest by looking at the forum... so how do you gauge interest then? How do you get feedback? Sales aren't a reliable metric and online reviews are a small number compared to the vocal forum member population and you just said this vocal forum member population does not reflect the majority of ED customers, so I doubt a handful of reviews is enough to reflect the majority of ED customers. So how do you get feedback from a silent population?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
It's not like I haven't tried. I'm still not here to win an argument and at this point I'm really only posting to respect your replies and clear up misunderstandings. Maybe it's me, but I don't think the quality of communication has been very good between us.

Um, that's because you keep side-stepping issues when they're not to your favor, then you turn around and present the same argument in the same post. If you want to improve quality of communication, then stop weaseling around, take a stand, and defend it with facts.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I thought you were doing more than speculating.

What made you get this insane idea?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I knew you most likely didn't have sales data, which is why I disagreed with your position.

I may not have sales data, but I have the newsletters. What do YOU have?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Alright, but evidence of what? The newsletters are evidence of sales, no one has denied that. They aren't evidence of financial status. Constant discounts don't tell you anything and I've provided information that suggests that it's a healthy process for a business.

Have you not heard that "too much of a good thing can be bad for you"?? A sale every now and again is fine. A sale 3-4x a week over the past 9 months (longer if you want to dig deeper) still passes the smell test? A module being on sale virtually once every month and everything is still above board?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I wouldn't link it to financial status at all. What I would link to financial status is the result of the discounts. What do you think investors did when JCP stopped having constant sales and lost money?

How quick do you think ED will hit market saturation with it's 23 or 25 modules? Does JC Penny only have 23-25 items in it's inventory? Is the target market of ED the same as JC Penny's? Stop using JC Penny as an excuse. Again, it's a totally different market selling totally different products. A t-shirt may degrade over time, so a buyer may return and purchase the exact same shirt again from JC Penny 3 years later and if they were having a sale, then that's further enticement to buy. A DCS module does not degrade and the DCS A10C module you have now that you've purchased 6-7 years ago will be exactly the same as the DCS A10C module on offer at 50-60% off.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Missed deadlines, a problem. Not related to the discounts in any obvious way.

Missed deadlines = longer development process.... do you not think the devs get paid?
Constant discounts = forcing a revenue stream.... do you not think the devs get paid?
There... tied deadlines and discounts. I guess you've not seen that one, huh?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Although ED has clearly stated that things can change. That's easy enough for a consumer like me to accept when an explanation comes along with the delay. I do miss when they were a bit more communicative. If they're clear on why things happen, such as the Nevada map being rebuilt, then it's not such a big deal. They were being an honest business and working to make things better for their buyers.

Ah, I see you're a full-time Kool-Aid drinker then. Explains a lot of the seehearspeak


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Rampant dissatisfaction? That I haven't seen, but if it existed it could be a problem.

Okay, this is an easy one.... anyone else reading this thread care to take this one?? biggrin


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I called you out because I saw you say something silly. It turns out I misinterpreted you. I'll give you some more benefit of the doubt next time.

You called me out because you have trouble with reading, comprehension, strawmanning, moving goalposts, and going after red herrings. Try to do better next time smile


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I can't agree with it having the most merit. There just isn't anything that links the discounts to ED's financial situation. Until there is I can't see how they would be used to even guess at the health of ED.

Well, seeing as you've not really put forward anything of substance, then it kinda wins the most merit by default. Whether you see it or not is your problem seehearspeak


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
Just because your explanation is "logical," if it doesn't have proof, then it doesn't carry as much merit. Give me one solid explanation with something, anything to back it up, and our discussion could be more fruitful.

You have to understand what I was trying to do. If an event has more than one explanation, you can't conclusively say what is going on. I didn't come into the thread to say what ED's situation was. I just responded to what I thought was an overly confident statement. What I said is fairly obvious and trivial, as you point out, if you're just speculating. I'm fine with moving on and discussion the merits or cons of ED having sales all the time.

I never said I had the monopoly on the explanation, but you seem to think you can call out anyone if the explanation isn't watertight without even presenting your own counters. I may not 100% conclusively say what ED's situation is, but coming at me with 0% and "it's a logical possibility" and then now claiming you've misunderstood the whole thing.... pffft!!

Sale after sale after sale after sale after sale.... not just 10-20% off either, but 50-60%. Not just weekend sales too, but good for a week, sometimes two. Sale after sale after sale after sale.
Now we may not be 100% sure that ED is in a bad financial situation, but that picture definitely does NOT paint them in a healthy one.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Yes, a totally different company. It still does what I said, it shows that there are cases where consumers prefer sales to fixed prices. You can argue that it may not apply to the sim market. I would argue that too if someone said that the JCP thing is certain proof that discounts are always beneficial or a sign of good health.

Oh, totally agree with you there, consumers do prefer sales!! You seem to be confused by the type of products they sell though. One has a clear position of repeat sales, the other clearly does not. One has a clear position of a healthy inventory, the other only sells 23-25 items. One has an undeniably massive customer base, the other is clearly a niche market. So while the study is indeed correct (consumers love sales!), the application of one does not directly translate to the other.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I said that sales every [week, I don't remember exactly what time period you specified] was an exaggeration. You even admitted it was, if only slightly.

And again, you've displayed your inability to read or your inability to detect sarcasm or both. In my 30 Dec 2016 to 1 Sept 2017 list, only 7 weeks were non-sales weeks. 7 out of 35 weeks is nowhere near "slightly." Even on the initial sarcastic exchange, on that limited time period of 6 weeks, there were 6 sales over 6 weeks. How you missed the sarcasm there, when I just showed you 6 sales in 6 weeks, is beyond me.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I insist on hard numbers for more than speculation.

Then nothing for you to see here, my friend. Move along. Unless you manage to make your way to becoming a major shareholder in ED (are they even publicly traded?) or get into their board of directors or hack Wags' computer, EVERYTHING ELSE on the internet is speculation... some more plausible than others.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
You've shifted conversation from 1.5.7 vs. 1.5.6.... to the update process.... to 2.5.

Did not happen.
Quote
You went from FC3 to A2A only to single-aircraft-only in an attempt to prove a point.

Did not happen.
Quote
You've engaged in at least two red herring exercises.

Did not happen.

Please don't make me start taking screenshots of your posts. You need to learn that claiming it ain't so doesn't make it so.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Then why do my posts say otherwise? The only thing I have not done is call ED incompetent. I wouldn't say that they are. I don't always agree with their direction though.

Kool-Aid and seehearspeak


- Ice
#4377849 - 09/05/17 12:18 AM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 85
Exorcet Offline
Junior Member
Exorcet  Offline
Junior Member

Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 85
Quote

That doesn't quite sound like "pointing out a hole." That sounds more like an outright "no, your argument is wrong."

This is the same thing that happened with the FC3 example.

"The ED newsletter does not show desperation" does not say that ED shows no desperation.


Quote

just because "constant sales" is a "winning strategy" does not mean anyone who uses it is "winning."

Exactly as I say.


Quote

"I have nothing to say, but I'll spend absurd amounts of time saying that I have nothing to say."


What I said: you can't show that ED is in a bad situation, so I said more than nothing.

What most of the time was spent on was trying to get my thoughts across and understanding yours.




Quote

Proof? Like I said, I'm expecting more than "it's a logical possibility." Please "support your side of the argument" properly.

It's a logical possible supported by the evidence I posted. Why are you still going on about this? Do I need to say in every line that I misread you and that I was attempting to provide an alternative explanation, not a definite explanation?


Quote

Hahahahahaha..... so a JC Penny study is "evidence" for ED's actions, but ED's newsletters aren't "evidence" for ED's actions....

No, The JCP study is evidence for the success of using constant sales. That should be obvious shouldn't it?


Quote

I think we've already established that JC Penny caters to a totally different market and provides a totally different line of product(s). If you have a similar study for high fidelity simulations, then maybe you have something...

That would be better, but this already supports my claim that constant sales can beneficial. My claim was not that ED has a perfect price strategy.


Quote

Firstly, sales are just that... sales. A person could've bought a module and he was happy with it... or he wasn't happy with it.... or it just wasn't his cup of tea. AAA titles could sell millions of copies but still be a flop, Indie titles could sell fewer but be super successful.

Agreed.

Quote

For Honor topped the charts when it was released on February this year with generally positive reception and reviews. It was reported to have sold 40K copies in it's first week in Japan and something like 700K copies across all three platforms. Wow! Awesome, right? Well, let's see how the game is doing.... according to the player count over time, For Honor had 35-40K players per hour average on its initial release week which quickly dwindled down to 7-8K per hour a month later... a loss of around 80% of the players. A month later,, it's down to around 3-4K per hour... this is April, two months after game release. It went down to around 2-3K/hr then spiked to 4K/hr mid-May due to a new patch being released, then goes back down to 1-1.5K/hr until mid-August, again for a patch release and new content, but only to around 8-9K/rh and only for a few days, quickly going back down to 2-4K/hr and more recently, 2-2.5K/hr. With an all-time highest peak of 72K/hr players or average of 56K/hr at that same time period, going down to a 3K/hr high now is only 4.167% of it's player base or if we look at averages, 2.5K/hr average now is 4.464%.

Compare this data with a Free to Play game like War Thunder with an almost constant 8K/hr average player base over the past year and about 10K/hr average player base since May 2015.... I guess the Free to Play business model works, huh?


I agree that F2P works. My original post on F2P was complaining about priced items having what I consider absurd prices and still being bought. Absurd is subjective, likewise is the state of DCS. So even if the vocal forums are unhappy, that doesn't mean everyone is.

Quote
Second, online ratings/reviews could very well be made by a vocal member of the forum.... after all, why would he make a review but not participate in the forum, right? "Logical possibility" and all that. So you end up counting the same guy twice. Also, why count a review but not an active forum member? Isn't a positive or negative feedback in a forum or online store like Steam essentially a "review" of the game?

You can end up double counting, sure. The forum is still it's own entity though, you can't completely gauge the state of consumer satisfaction from a forum. The forum might even be more negative on average because they'll tend to be hardcore players with a lot of play time.

I never said that you shouldn't count the forum. I said the forum won't be the only driver of ED's decisions.


Quote

duh Your feet must really, really hurt by now. You said you can't gauge interest by looking at the forum... so how do you gauge interest then? How do you get feedback? Sales aren't a reliable metric and online reviews are a small number compared to the vocal forum member population and you just said this vocal forum member population does not reflect the majority of ED customers, so I doubt a handful of reviews is enough to reflect the majority of ED customers. So how do you get feedback from a silent population?

You can get anything from a silent population, it's silent. Off the forum does not mean silent though.


Quote

Um, that's because you keep side-stepping issues when they're not to your favor, then you turn around and present the same argument in the same post. If you want to improve quality of communication, then stop weaseling around, take a stand, and defend it with facts.

I keep reading replies that might not even relate to what I'm saying. I'm not side stepping anything. My stand is the one I took at the start.


Quote

What made you get this insane idea?

My inability to understand your original post fully.







Quote

Ah, I see you're a full-time Kool-Aid drinker then. Explains a lot of the seehearspeak

I just try to be fair. You don't seem to think that someone can like and dislike a company at the same time. At least that your comments like this one reads. It's either love or hate for you.


Quote

Okay, this is an easy one.... anyone else reading this thread care to take this one?? biggrin

There are a dozen(?) regulars in this section. That's not "rampant". Unless you have links handy to a bunch of sites maybe.





Quote

I never said I had the monopoly on the explanation, but you seem to think you can call out anyone if the explanation isn't watertight without even presenting your own counters. I may not 100% conclusively say what ED's situation is, but coming at me with 0% and "it's a logical possibility" and then now claiming you've misunderstood the whole thing.... pffft!!

Well I did misunderstand and I'm sorry. I can't make you accept it, but it is what it is.

Quote
Sale after sale after sale after sale after sale.... not just 10-20% off either, but 50-60%. Not just weekend sales too, but good for a week, sometimes two. Sale after sale after sale after sale.
Now we may not be 100% sure that ED is in a bad financial situation, but that picture definitely does NOT paint them in a healthy one.

Unless their sales strategy maximizes profit.

Quote

Oh, totally agree with you there, consumers do prefer sales!! You seem to be confused by the type of products they sell though. One has a clear position of repeat sales, the other clearly does not. One has a clear position of a healthy inventory, the other only sells 23-25 items. One has an undeniably massive customer base, the other is clearly a niche market. So while the study is indeed correct (consumers love sales!), the application of one does not directly translate to the other.

Yes. More information is needed to say is the sim market follows the same trend with certainty.


Quote

And again, you've displayed your inability to read or your inability to detect sarcasm or both. In my 30 Dec 2016 to 1 Sept 2017 list, only 7 weeks were non-sales weeks. 7 out of 35 weeks is nowhere near "slightly." Even on the initial sarcastic exchange, on that limited time period of 6 weeks, there were 6 sales over 6 weeks. How you missed the sarcasm there, when I just showed you 6 sales in 6 weeks, is beyond me.

Your list was not where this post started and you didn't say anything about admitting exaggerations in the post with the list. You did on 8/27

[quote-Ice]In all honesty, it's a slight exaggeration, but only very slight.[/quote]


Quote

Then nothing for you to see here, my friend. Move along.

Right, you corrected me on this.


Quote

Please don't make me start taking screenshots of your posts. You need to learn that claiming it ain't so doesn't make it so.

Likewise, saying it isn't doesn't make it so. You can take screenshots, I have an idea of which posts you'll capture and what I'll say to help you out of your confusion. What happens after that I don't know, though I honestly feel like it will be more going in circles.


Quote

Kool-Aid and seehearspeak

Right, so there is nothing to indicate that I'm blindly supporting ED. I wouldn't suggest doing so, it can end badly for the company. Blinding railing against anything they do or any positive comment on them is just as silly though.

#4377850 - 09/05/17 12:27 AM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 203
FartHog Offline
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FartHog  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2016
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[Linked Image]

#4377885 - 09/05/17 07:53 AM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 871
Winfield Offline
model citizen
Winfield  Offline
model citizen
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 871
QLD
[Linked Image]

#4377930 - 09/05/17 02:26 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: Exorcet]  
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 16,082
- Ice Offline
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- Ice  Offline
Veteran

Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 16,082
Philippines / North East UK
Glad you boys are enjoying the show! smile

Originally Posted by Exorcet
"The ED newsletter does not show desperation" does not say that ED shows no desperation.

You seem to be confused.
"....does not show desperation" means there is no desperation.
"....does not necessarily show desperation" or means there may be desperation or there may not be.

English, huh? Such a confusing language.....


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
Proof? Like I said, I'm expecting more than "it's a logical possibility." Please "support your side of the argument" properly.

It's a logical possible supported by the evidence I posted. Why are you still going on about this? Do I need to say in every line that I misread you and that I was attempting to provide an alternative explanation, not a definite explanation?

I give up... I cannot dive down to your level. Good luck with that.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I never said that you shouldn't count the forum. I said the forum won't be the only driver of ED's decisions.
So the forums might be unhappy. That doesn't mean the majority of ED's customer base is unhappy.
You can't gauge the entire consumer interest by looking at the forum, that's the point I made.

You can't gauge the entire consumer feedback by looking at the people who are giving you feedback (active forum members), so your suggestion is to.....??? Please enlighten us!

You seem to be so confident saying "that doesn't mean the majority is unhappy," yet again, you have NOTHING to show for it. Those of us that say that customers are unhappy has the forum feedback as evidence. We could be wrong, sure, as the entire silent population could be very happy with ED.... but that is just a possibility. Until that "possibility" manifests itself in some tangible form, you're stuck with 0%.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I keep reading replies that might not even relate to what I'm saying. I'm not side stepping anything. My stand is the one I took at the start.

The one you keep changing?


Originally Posted by Exorcet
My inability to understand

Yep.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
I just try to be fair. You don't seem to think that someone can like and dislike a company at the same time. At least that your comments like this one reads. It's either love or hate for you.

Ad hominem. I really wouldn't mind if you were right though, but even on this attack, you're sadly way off the mark.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
There are a dozen(?) regulars in this section. That's not "rampant". Unless you have links handy to a bunch of sites maybe.

Nope, I just know how to read and understand, really.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Well I did misunderstand and I'm sorry. I can't make you accept it, but it is what it is.

Ok, so you misunderstood..... yet you still persist in pushing your story.... ???


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Unless their sales strategy maximizes profit.

Good Lord!! 50-60% off maximizes profit? Clearly that is not the case here.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Yes. More information is needed to say is the sim market follows the same trend with certainty.

Thank you. I hope you stop using that as an excuse now.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
And again, you've displayed your inability to read or your inability to detect sarcasm or both. In my 30 Dec 2016 to 1 Sept 2017 list, only 7 weeks were non-sales weeks. 7 out of 35 weeks is nowhere near "slightly." Even on the initial sarcastic exchange, on that limited time period of 6 weeks, there were 6 sales over 6 weeks. How you missed the sarcasm there, when I just showed you 6 sales in 6 weeks, is beyond me.

Your list was not where this post started and you didn't say anything about admitting exaggerations in the post with the list. You did on 8/27

The post on 27 August was sarcastic.... 6 sales out of 6 weeks was supposed to be obvious. The post on 2 September was also sarcastic... 28 sales out of 35 weeks was supposed to be obvious that it wasn't a "few" sales... heck, I even put the word few under quotation marks!

Someone needs to pay attention.


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Quote
Please don't make me start taking screenshots of your posts. You need to learn that claiming it ain't so doesn't make it so.

Likewise, saying it isn't doesn't make it so.

Is there an echo in here??


Originally Posted by Exorcet
Right, so there is nothing to indicate that I'm blindly supporting ED.

Hahahahahahahahahaha..... Hahahahahahahaha......


- Ice
#4378302 - 09/07/17 12:23 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 10,113
KraziKanuK Offline
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Ottawa Canada
Guess who.

It's not the same teams working on that stuff, the Hornet will have its own team and 2.5 has its, it shouldn't impact what is going on with WWII items.

The exceptions might be AI and Visibility which impact the entire sim, not just WWII aspects. DM might as well, but from what I understand they brought on someone specially to lead that, but I might not have that right.

ED doesnt share to far into the future anymore, it's just better for them as people put unreasonable time frames and expectations on things when they are shared too early. Of if something impacts the release of those things, people are unforgiving.


https://forums.eagle.ru/showthread.php?t=193092&page=3

Had a good chuckle over the bolded text.


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#4378319 - 09/07/17 01:12 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 16,082
- Ice Offline
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- Ice  Offline
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Posts: 16,082
Philippines / North East UK
Hehehehe... funny indeed! As if the customer is the one setting the deadline.... as if the customer has expectations if it wasn't hyped up by ED.... as if the customer dictates ED's feature creep, planning, and decisions to tackle other projects...

Here's another one from that same page:
constructive criticism is encouraged as long as it is mature and courteous, if you can not do that its wise not to post.

Why? Are ED devs 5 years old? Do they run away crying if the criticism isn't laid on a velvet pillow and handed to them by a court servant?


- Ice
#4378331 - 09/07/17 01:46 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: leaf_on_the_wind]  
Joined: Mar 2002
Posts: 14,410
Tom_Weiss Offline
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3rd Planet, Sun
as things stand now, if it weren't out of a sense of loyalty to our community, I would not continue.

#4378374 - 09/07/17 05:28 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: KraziKanuK]  
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 797
leaf_on_the_wind Offline
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leaf_on_the_wind  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 797
Originally Posted by KraziKanuK
Guess who.

It's not the same teams working on that stuff, the Hornet will have its own team and 2.5 has its, it shouldn't impact what is going on with WWII items.

The exceptions might be AI and Visibility which impact the entire sim, not just WWII aspects. DM might as well, but from what I understand they brought on someone specially to lead that, but I might not have that right.

ED doesnt share to far into the future anymore, it's just better for them as people put unreasonable time frames and expectations on things when they are shared too early. Of if something impacts the release of those things, people are unforgiving.


https://forums.eagle.ru/showthread.php?t=193092&page=3

Had a good chuckle over the bolded text.


Reading between the lines
"We currently use a dart board and several pints of beer to calc timelines when things will be ready
(because we generally haven't a f**king clue)
The project manager then picks up the 'dart of devination' closes his eyes and throws it at the board several feet away the number it lands
on is how many weeks we then think the project will take"

Last edited by leaf_on_the_wind; 09/07/17 05:53 PM.


Ferengi Rule of acquisition #1 Once you have their money ... never give it back.

#4378453 - 09/07/17 10:56 PM Re: This weeks DCS "News" ...... seriously ? [Re: KraziKanuK]  
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 772
Johnny_Redd Offline
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Johnny_Redd  Offline
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Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 772
Originally Posted by KraziKanuK
Guess who.

[i]It's not the same teams working on that stuff, the Hornet will have its own team and 2.5 has its, it shouldn't impact what is going on with WWII items.
.


Had to chuckle myself at that one. Wagner said the same thing waaaaaaay back when ED fired RRG. Aaaaaaaasnd we're, well not me, still waiting for the hornet and the completion if WW2. They had to sub contract out the Normandy map because.... we'll because wagner was BSing about ww2 not impacting other works in progress. And now we have spawn spouting the same line of BS.


DCS Kickstarter
Wags July 2014 "In this July 2014 update, the primary news is in regards to the restructured backer rewards. After a careful review of the older system under RRG, we found it financially unattainable."
Wags October 2017 "the investment vs. generated revenue has been excellent for the World War II aircraft. In fact, the P-51D Mustang has twice the cost effectiveness of the A-10C Warthog."
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