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#4337326 - 02/14/17 04:19 PM Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize"  
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Haggart Offline
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....there are many people whose jobs are to drive. In fact, I think it might be the single largest employer of people. So we need to figure out new roles for what do those people do, but it will be very disruptive and very quick

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-mu...hink-2017-02-13


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#4337332 - 02/14/17 04:42 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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People will adapt and society will survive. When agriculture went down the industrialized/mechanized path in the early 20th century, it displaced millions of workers who had to migrate to the cities to find work. That caused a huge societal disruption but it eventually sorted itself out.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4337355 - 02/14/17 06:09 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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Dart Offline
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Don't forget your keys!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/20...ne-app-failure/

Quote:
Interested in testing a feature that lets Tesla owners unlock and power their car using their smartphone, Ryan Negri decided to leave his keys at home when he went for a drive around the canyon yesterday.

...

Negri was able to do just this - but only to begin with. After getting out of the vehicle to adjust something when he was six miles from home he found himself locked out of the car unable to get back in let alone start it.

"Six miles down the road we decided to turn back, but before that, had to adjust Mozy & Millie's car bed, so I exited the vehicle...bad idea," Negri said on Instagram. "Need to restart the car now, but, with no cell service, my phone can't connect to the car to unlock it."


hahaha


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#4337366 - 02/14/17 07:04 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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TerribleTwo Offline
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Driverless, but not empty. How do you have human to human contact once the truck is at its destination? So UPS pulls up.. Now what. You go out and grab your box? What do you do about flat tires in the middle of the road? Who fixes it ASAP? What if a tree falls in the road, a human could move it ASAP, but a driverless car can't. Tons of scenarios. The driverless car will still need a "driver" on board.

Now you have the fire department on a major Los Angeles highway that needs to get to an emergency, but you have a driverless car stopped because of engine trouble or flat tire, and it can't move, so the next driverless car stops too because it can't get through. Suddenly you have thousands of car stopped on a major highway, people burning to death in a building, and a fire department that can't get through. Who changes the tire, and how do they move the cars?


What if a kid runs his bike into the side of a car and is injured? Does the car know the extent of the kid's injuries? What happens when a deer runs out, hits the car, car pulls over but theres no berm, does the car throw out flares? Does it slow down approaching traffic?

The roads are not closed spaces like a factory. They are dynamic where all sorts of unknowns can happen. A car will need to have someonenon board to handle the unknowns.

Last edited by TerribleTwo; 02/14/17 07:26 PM.

"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4337369 - 02/14/17 07:11 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Originally Posted By: TerribleTwo
Driverless, but not empty. How do you have human to human contact once the truck is at its destination? So UPS pulls up.. Now what. You go out and grab your box? What do you do about flat tires in the middle of the road? Who fixes it ASAP? What if a tree falls in the road, a human could move ir ASAP, bit a driverless car can't. Tons of scenarios. The driverless car will still need a "driver" on board.


Yup, that's a great point. There's really no way to totally eliminate human presence from transportation.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4337372 - 02/14/17 07:23 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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The only difference is that you might not need a CDL license to be a truck 'steward' in the future. biggrin


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#4337375 - 02/14/17 07:31 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: TerribleTwo]  
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Arthonon Offline
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Originally Posted By: TerribleTwo
Driverless, but not empty. How do you have human to human contact once the truck is at its destination? So UPS pulls up.. Now what. You go out and grab your box? What do you do about flat tires in the middle of the road? Who fixes it ASAP? What if a tree falls in the road, a human could move it ASAP, but a driverless car can't. Tons of scenarios. The driverless car will still need a "driver" on board.

I think there are fairly easy solutions for most of those things. For deliveries, I think a robot could wheel it out, or there could be a standardized mailbox at the street. Large deliveries and installations would still need people, but many deliveries could be handled with an automated process. Run-flat tires would reduce the chances of a flat, and the cars could be made with enough intelligence to "limp" off the road. Depending on the size of the tree, most drivers couldn't move it either.

Originally Posted By: TerribleTwo
What if a kid runs his bike into the side of a car and is injured? Does the car know the extent of the kid's injuries? What happens when a deer runs out, hits the car, car pulls over but theres no berm, does the car throw out flares? Does it slow down approaching traffic?

Would I know the extent of the kid's injuries? I would do what I could to help, but would also call an ambulance. What happens if a kid rides his bike into a tree on the side of the road? Pretty much same thing here, except the car could call for help. If all the cars are auto-driven, or at least properly equipped, a car on the side of the road would send a signal that other cars would receive and then slow down - no need for flares. Also, they could be centrally monitored, so someone would get an alert, check the car reporting it, and then dispatch help if needed.

Originally Posted By: TerribleTwo
The roads are not closed spaces like a factory. They are dynamic where all sorts of unknowns can happen. A car will need to have someonenon board to handle the unknowns.

I don't think anyone expects this all to happen without other processes in place, but once enough systems are in place, the roads will almost be closed spaces. Cars will communicate with each other and central traffic flow systems and more will probably be known about situations than is known now. Loss of privacy is actually a bigger concern for me than problems with automation.

Compare the issues you've mentioned with drunk drivers, distracted drivers, just plain stupid drivers, drivers who can't react quickly enough, etc., and things will probably be safer once everything is automated. Not much fun, necessarily, but safer.


Ken Cartwright

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#4337381 - 02/14/17 07:50 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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The privacy issues concern me as well, and I'm somewhere between the cake-and-ear-it-too total anonymity folks and the I-just-checked-into-a-restaurant constant public self tracking crowd. My ancient flip phone has no GPS or wifi, but I do use Steam and have a Facebook account.

Renting a self driving car for an evening of drinking has great appeal to me, and I can defineately see how they could greatly improve the lives of the elderly or disabled.


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#4337385 - 02/14/17 07:55 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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So assuming all cars will eventually be self-driving, then why bother with getting any kind of high performance car like a Mustang or a Porsche? They might as well just make generic Soviet-style vehicles.

Last edited by PanzerMeyer; 02/14/17 07:56 PM.

“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4337409 - 02/14/17 08:42 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: PanzerMeyer]  
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Originally Posted By: PanzerMeyer
So assuming all cars will eventually be self-driving, then why bother with getting any kind of high performance car like a Mustang or a Porsche?


Thankfully, there will be no point. This will remove a great number of hazardous drivers from the road and save a bunch of lives along with a great deal of wasted gasoline.

My brother owns a 4WD pickup, a Mercedes and a Mustang Boss 302. He only drives like a maniac/asshat, for the most part, in the Mustang.


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#4337418 - 02/14/17 09:16 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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Well, as a Mustang owner, that's why I said it wouldn't necessarily be much fun. However, the asshats I see are the ones who take half a mile to hit 35 miles an hour, and then stay at that speed even though it's a 45 zone, and that's annoying even when I'm in my 4-cylinder Escape.

Anyway, I think that human-driven cars won't disappear right away, largely because there are a lot of them out there, and because a lot of people do like driving. I'm guessing that for a while at least, there will be split zones where possible, one for auto-driven cars and one for human-driven cars.


Ken Cartwright

No single drop of rain feels it is responsible for the flood.

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#4337438 - 02/14/17 09:56 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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I would love it if the driverless cars got their own lanes/roads to use. Imagine cutting your commute time in half because the computer-driven cars are able to eschew traffic lights. All the cars know where all the other cars in their lanes are and where they're going, so they can orchestrate turns and lane changes without everyone having to come to a stop for 3 minutes every 1/4 mile.

At a minimum this would also cause less traffic on the regular roads.


The Jedi Master


The anteater is wearing the bagel because he's a reindeer princess. -- my 4 yr old daughter
#4337473 - 02/14/17 11:25 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: PanzerMeyer]  
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Originally Posted By: PanzerMeyer
Originally Posted By: TerribleTwo
Driverless, but not empty. How do you have human to human contact once the truck is at its destination? So UPS pulls up.. Now what. You go out and grab your box? What do you do about flat tires in the middle of the road? Who fixes it ASAP? What if a tree falls in the road, a human could move ir ASAP, bit a driverless car can't. Tons of scenarios. The driverless car will still need a "driver" on board.


Yup, that's a great point. There's really no way to totally eliminate human presence from transportation.


Well that's not necessarily true #SkyNet #selfaware

#4337605 - 02/15/17 11:39 AM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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Yes Arthonon got my point, the roads will need to be closed system prior to any driverless cars. Right now its a novelty, cool factor, but seriously open to liability. An empty UPS truck kills a kid, or injures him, or not. If no human is present to administer some kind of help to the injured kid, then UPS will open to sorts of liability.


"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4337612 - 02/15/17 12:01 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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This will also completely change the auto insurance and liability laws. If an automated vehicle fails and kills or injures someone, logic would suggest that the manufacturer of the vehicle and not the driver would be liable.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4337616 - 02/15/17 12:14 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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Not necessarily, lets keep using UPS as an example because that seems to be the first logical choice. If anyone has ever been involved in a civil deposition, you would understand how every little detail is scrutinized for possible liability.

UPS chose to have a driverless truck. They weren't forced, they did it to save operating costs. Sure, the truck manufacturer would be partnof a suit if there was a malfunction or some overlooked design flaw, but ultimately, UPS is responsible for putting the truck on the road. If no one is around to call for an ambulance, to help the kid in any way a normal human being would, then yes, UPS could be liable for the kids death if an ambulance isn't called.

So the next question, to save your liable butt, do all accidents require EMS and Fire to respind automatically? If so, then your entire EMS responder system would be enundated with frivilous calls to accidents, thus taking them away from real calls.

Its a huge problem. This is just one small example of a massive number of uncertainties in an open roadway system. The roads will first need to be a closed system where EVERYTHING is controlled.

Then what about normal traffic flow during snow and ice conditions. Do the cars automatically know to jump out and help the next car move off the icy road where everyone is sliding on an ice rink? Wow, we can go on and on with the endless problems.


Last edited by TerribleTwo; 02/15/17 12:20 PM.

"College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life" - Paul Ryan
#4337627 - 02/15/17 01:25 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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What? No more youtube dash cams of Russians spinning out while driving 60 through town on ice.. frown

#4337629 - 02/15/17 01:30 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Falstar]  
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Originally Posted By: Falstar
What? No more youtube dash cams of Russians spinning out while driving 60 through town on ice.. frown
Eh, I'm sure it will be a very long time (if ever) until Russia converts fully to automated vehicles.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#4337647 - 02/15/17 02:26 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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Entil'zha
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We're still waiting for them to convert to (mostly) sober drivers.



The Jedi Master


The anteater is wearing the bagel because he's a reindeer princess. -- my 4 yr old daughter
#4337743 - 02/15/17 10:04 PM Re: Elon Musk ..."The Future of the Driverless Car Is Much Closer Than People Realize" [Re: Haggart]  
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cheers driving

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