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#3988965 - 07/31/14 05:21 PM 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing  
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If Boeing say they need to hire 27,000 new pilots a year globally until 2033, to keep up with forecasted demand in the number of flights. Why don't airlines do more to hire new pilots? As someone with no experience within the aviation industry it seems the only way to be a pilot is with huge financial outlay with no guarantee of a job? If the industry is facing this much of a potential staffing industry should the airlines not do more to recruit and train pilots?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11000803/Half-a-million-new-pilots-needed-says-Boeing.html

I understand it's expensive to train pilots, however the aviation industry is not the only industry to incur high training costs. If someone could explain it to me please as I say I don't know how the industry is.

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#3988972 - 07/31/14 05:26 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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Ah yes, the Great Pilot Shortage Myth. It's been around for 40 years. Flight schools love it.


In all my years I've never seen the like. It has to be more than a hundred sea miles and he brings us up on his tail. That's seamanship, Mr. Pullings. My God, that's seamanship!
#3988975 - 07/31/14 05:29 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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It must be a myth because I'm always reading articles about how difficult it is to be a pilot even for the bargain airlines like Spirit and Jet Blue and how the pay really stinks. If the pay is that bad then that means there are too many people applying for too few positions.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#3988977 - 07/31/14 05:33 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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Originally Posted By: jdbecks
As someone with no experience within the aviation industry it seems the only way to be a pilot is with huge financial outlay with no guarantee of a job? If the industry is facing this much of a potential staffing industry should the airlines not do more to recruit and train pilots?


Yep, too many people, too few jobs. It has become the norm for new pilots to have to spend huge amounts of money on buying their own type rating after having spent huge amounts of money getting their licenses in the first place. The most cheapskate of the low-cost airlines are to blame - here in Europe the airlines primarily responsible for the downward spiral of terms and conditions for pilots are Ryanair, EasyJet and Norwegian. I don't know as much about the situation in the US, but the so-called "race to the bottom" has already claimed lives: See the Colgan Air Dash 8 crash in Buffalo, NY.


In all my years I've never seen the like. It has to be more than a hundred sea miles and he brings us up on his tail. That's seamanship, Mr. Pullings. My God, that's seamanship!
#3988979 - 07/31/14 05:36 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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What's the average pay for a pilot? Panzermayer that's what I assumed it was like for pilots, that's why I found this article a surprisingly

#3988993 - 07/31/14 05:55 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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Maybe just maybe, exist a lack of experienced pilots (3000 hours capitans, rated at least), but as a pilot my self and CFI I can say that is a big myth. The payment is low, and the fresh pilots only hope is pay a lot for a rating; but in the other hand several people want to fly a big shinny jet without instructing (for me was a BIG experience and I love it) or make the effort and earn the spot flying less glamour positions; in other words a lot of mercenaries sorta, and little love for this.

So, a myth.

#3989010 - 07/31/14 06:44 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: SJ_Kraken]  
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We're experiencing a pilot shortage in our area. We are having a hard time finding pilots for our charter operation. I think it is a shortage of pilots willing to work for the poor pay and on call lifestyle. I know 3 guys who gave up flying for a living and are making more money and are enjoying the time with their family.

#3989014 - 07/31/14 06:51 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: zxrex]  
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Originally Posted By: zxrex
We're experiencing a pilot shortage in our area. We are having a hard time finding pilots for our charter operation. I think it is a shortage of pilots willing to work for the poor pay and on call lifestyle. I know 3 guys who gave up flying for a living and are making more money and are enjoying the time with their family.
Yeah this makes perfect sense to me. It's a shame really just how much the profession of airline pilot has changed in our society over the past 50 years or so.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#3989022 - 07/31/14 06:59 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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If only this was true....

#3989031 - 07/31/14 07:25 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: semmern]  
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Originally Posted By: semmern
Ah yes, the Great Pilot Shortage Myth. It's been around for 40 years. Flight schools love it.


+1

This "shortage" pitch was going around 1 year after 9/11..... when there were thousands of furloughed pilots.

#3989033 - 07/31/14 07:29 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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wait wait wait......sure flight schools have pilots but a cesna or any training plane is not a 737 or whatever is the number they are now, its just like having a driver license and assume you can drive a bus/truck or a bike with it.

#3989054 - 07/31/14 08:20 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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If you have the money to learn. And if you are willing to take a hit in your lifestyle for 4-8 years. If you (and your family) are willing to relocate several times. If you are capable of meeting fairly strict technical standards as your career progresses. And if you can work well in a crew environment. (There are more "if's" but the above is a good start). If these things are doable and you still love each step of the progress you will likely have a solid aviation career in your future. It's a struggle. But the light at the end of the tunnel is the world's best office, no boss to answer to and a $250,000 paycheck. The problem I see is young pilots who plow through each step of this process with a bitter sense of entitlement. If you are incapable of enjoying that $20 right seat job in a Twin Otter, you probably won't be able to enjoy that $260/hour left seat on a 777 either.

#3989057 - 07/31/14 08:30 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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Good post Smokin Hole. Becoming a pilot sounds a lot like becoming an MD. Lol.


“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
#3989062 - 07/31/14 08:39 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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+1

#3989071 - 07/31/14 09:27 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: semmern]  
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Originally Posted By: semmern
Ah yes, the Great Pilot Shortage Myth. It's been around for 40 years. Flight schools love it.


There's no shortage at the majors. For sure.

But there are already documented shortages, leading to cancellations, at the regionals.

And with the new 1500 hour ATP rule, it's going to be really really tough to fill the ranks at the regionals going forward for 25k a year and a crappy schedule.

The mountain of time now needed just to get in the door, at poverty wages no less, is only going to discourage people from even pursuing flying as well.

#3989093 - 07/31/14 10:32 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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The 1500h FAA requirement was a knee-jerk reaction to the Colgan Air accident, where, ironically, both pilots had more than enough hours..they were just overworked and fatigued due to the lifestyle required of pilots today, especially in the regional end of flight operations, but also in many major low-cost companies. Training standards have fallen, any douchebag with enough money can get a job, not based on skills and knowledge, but based on how much you're willing to pay, and the main culprit is the insanely low ticket prices that Joe Public has come to expect. It actually costs a lot of money to keep a pressurised, kerosene-fueled metal tube with two or four jet engines in the air at five miles above the Earth's surface, and there is something wrong with the state of things, IMO, when pilot wages keep getting slashed, fuel prices keep rising, and still the tickets are as cheap as they are. Cheaper, dollar for dollar, than they were 20 years ago. Ticket prices need to rise a bit, the airlines need to make a better profit, so they can pay people wages that aren't insultingly low, and the public needs to accept slightly higher ticket prices to reflect the actual costs of operating airplanes in a safe manner.


In all my years I've never seen the like. It has to be more than a hundred sea miles and he brings us up on his tail. That's seamanship, Mr. Pullings. My God, that's seamanship!
#3989098 - 07/31/14 10:40 PM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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Ahhhhhhhh.... The FAA . Their motto is - "we're not happy until you're not happy.


Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Someday your life will flash in front of your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
#3989131 - 08/01/14 12:28 AM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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Semmern, I couldn't have said it better myself. I do have hopes that the plunging pilot pay will degrade the profession enough where reform will be impossible to avoid and a first year pilot at Delta won't make less than a hairdresser in DC. I do think the fallout from the age 67 rule and the 1500 hour requirement will require an influx of pilots who will not work for $16K (the starting salary at Comair when I applied in 1999). Perhaps the profession will normalize a bit into one worth pursuing again.

Grognard, I hear your sentiments. EDIT: actually, I kind of agreed with Grognard's and by extension, Semmern's statements, but after researching it a bit I think the 1500 hour rule stemmed chiefly from this statement from the NTSB report made by vice chairman Christopher Hart...


"Pilot Professionalism

In the sunshine meeting I stated my concern that our commercial aviation system is experiencing a declining percentage of airline pilots who have the benefit of military pilot training, and our system is not adequately responding to the challenges that are being created by that decline. Not only is military training world-class, but the military has a long history of effectively weeding out those who simply lack the right stuff.

This is not to say that pilots cannot get world‐class training in our civilian system; but that system needs, among other things, a more effective weeding process. Currently the pilot licensing process is based upon passing various written and flight tests but there is no distinction between those who pass the first time, versus those who dont pass until the third time, versus those who dont pass until the ninth time. Most of what most attorneys do is not potentially life-threatening for their clients, yet some states limit the number of times that lawyers to be can fail the bar exam. In addition, I am aware of at least one mode of transportation in which failure to pass a critical written test the second time results in dismissal from the program, and passing the test requires a score of 100.

Similarly, there is no distinction in our civilian system between those who pass flight tests the first time versus those, such as the captain in this accident, who failed the first attempt in several different flight tests.

Moreover, written tests largely measure knowledge, and flight tests largely measure stick and rudder skills. Other crucial attributes are not generally measured by either of these tests, such as discipline and judgment two attributes for which the effectiveness of military training is also well known, but that have also been shown lacking in this and other recent commercial aviation accidents and incidents.

Our civilian system needs to address the challenge of systematically continuing to provide the world-class pilot training that the military has provided for so many years, and the system particularly needs a better way to keep out those who should not begin or continue flying passengers for hire."



Personally, I have flown with both mil and civilian pilots and have found both good and bad ones in both categories. I think however, reading the accident report, there is some validity to the argument that coming to a carrier with a few hundred hours in light civils or twins is, potentially, learning at the expense of the passengers.

Sorry for the aside...not really on the original topic.


#3989166 - 08/01/14 02:05 AM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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Which military pilot, fighter jock or transport, would be preferred?


There was only 16 squadrons of RAF fighters that used 100 octane during the BoB.
The Fw190A could not fly with the outer cannon removed.
There was no Fw190A-8s flying with the JGs in 1945.
#3989169 - 08/01/14 02:10 AM Re: 27,000 new pilots a year - Boeing [Re: jdbecks]  
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I don't know about globally, but strictly from a USA perspective there is the fact that the Baby Boomer generation is hitting retirement and/or death age, and Generation X only has one person to their three. That's part (just part) of the reason for the upcoming Social Security crisis.

It's also one of the main reasons everything healthcare related is in high demand (again from a strictly USA perspective), but that's now, I sure wouldn't want to be in that field around 20 years from now. There's going to be a massive surplus of workers chasing too few jobs there.

Just on raw demographics alone I could see a demand for airline pilots in the coming years like we've not seen in decades. And of course if there IS to be demand it will be exaggerated by the industries involved way beforehand to help ensure that they have a workforce when that time comes. Nothing new there, but an increase in demand does seem to be coming for sure, even if exaggerated.

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