Yes, this happens to me too in Falcon AF. I never could connect to the tanker the first try during campaign. Strangely it's easy enough when in training. I think it's all because of my lousy flying, or because of psychological factor (in the campaign I always refuel AFTER I dodged flaks, SAMs, and enemy fighters) but if someone else experience the same thing, then it's worth checking more.
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"It ebbs and flows, shipmate. A hot woman and a cold beer will put all this in proper perspective."