He got sealion'ed and ragequit.

Still here I let this slide a bit. I have another update to write, just need to find a time to sit down and get it done. It's mostly still a slog for me around Hanoi and into China proper. The terrain in and around the Red River Delta is a really brutal mix of rivers, jungle, and mountains. But there are definitely a few surprises to report on. Stay tuned.

I fear for the safety of the kaigun

Uncle Ho showed up?


Wheels

Sorry for letting this slide for a while, busy with lots of work, blah blah blah, let's get back to the war

The Long March on Hanoi

Towards the end of December 1942, 2nd Army Group has consolidated into what is more or less a single mass of infantry marching slowly northward. Japanese resistance is faltering, with organized defence non-existent. Most combat in the region now consists of delaying actions while the Japanese retreat to regroup in China. However, 4th and 8th Indian Divisions have beaten the Japanese to the coast, and a very large pocket of enemy divisions is encircled near Da Nang.



Under attack from all sides, the Japanese put up a very brief token defence before they either surrender or are driven into the sea by 11 December. Altogether, the Japanese and their allies lose about 68,000 men in this pocket.



This victory aside, a mix of withdrawing and reinforcing Japanese infantry, numbering a half dozen divisions or so, have set up a line south of Hanoi. Although the Japanese divisions aren’t really able to stand toe-to-toe with my veteran Royal Marines and infantry in open terrain, the dense jungle here is an absolute nightmare and makes any offensive action precarious and painfully slow. The Japanese are able to conduct a marginally successful elastic defence and exploit the terrain advantage for defensive positions. Engineer brigades attached to the Royal Marines divisions are able to keep the attack moving, albeit slowly. One positive note is that, despite the hellish terrain leading up the coast to Hanoi, my divisions are all staying in pretty good supply. So it’s a slow albeit constant march deeper into enemy territory towards Hanoi.



At sea, roaming naval patrols around Hainan continue to encounter a few enemy fleets scattered around. Vice-Admiral Horton’s 3 Surface Group sends the light cruiser Tatsuta to the bottom at Beibu Wan on 23 January. The carriers Zuiho and Chiyoda are spotted off Hong Kong by HMS Hood the following week, but there is no engagement. There is no other major fleet action to report for now.



American Action Against the Home Islands

There is, however, some serious breaking news farther north of our theatre. Though heavy Nazi lobbying has kept the Americans from openly allying with us and becoming involved in Europe, it has not stopped the US from waging their own quiet little war on the Japanese. Besides spotting a few US task groups at sea, we haven’t seen much of the Americans in the region yet. That is, until now:



Yes, that’s correct. Huge American landings have taken place in January, striking directly against the Japanese homeland. A few divisions are ashore in southwestern Taiwan, the Ryukyu Islands have been almost entirely seized, and multiple corps of combined infantry and marines have landed near Nagasaki and are very quickly snatching territory.



Cunningham’s task group makes a friendly port visit – those are indeed the carriers Glorious and Ark Royal docked in Nagasaki.



We have no reliable intelligence of Japanese strength on the home islands, but given the rapid pace of the American landings so far, I think it is reasonable to say that the war in the east may be over within a few months. My inclination for the moment is to sit tight and continue the press in China. Supportive landings against the mainland might be feasible, especially if it looks like the Americans might be getting pushed back. I’m open to suggestions here.

European Theatre

Back in Europe, there’s more news. It appears that the Soviets are in the midst of a major counter-attack, having re-captured Kiev and now closing in on Lwów at the start of February 1943. As with Japan, we have no clear idea of relative strength here, and can only watch a front line flexing back and forth.



Any help against Hitler is a welcome sight, but the strategic implications of a significant Soviet breakthrough into Europe are troubling. Winning the war is, of course, paramount, however careful manoeuvring now can develop a favourable balance of power in Europe between us, our allies, and the Soviet sphere in the long-term. Europe after the war must be liberated and democratic, whatever the cost.

For now, ending the war the war in the east is the highest priority. But the faster our armies in the east can be brought back home and re-oriented to strike against the heart of Germany, the better.

The Long March Grinds to a Halt

Mid-February sees a large number of reinforcing Japanese divisions arrive in theatre, presumably pulled away from elsewhere in China. Redeployed in and around the Thanh Hoa delta, they are consolidated with retreating divisions and launch a few minor counter-attacks to meet my advancing divisions head on. Defending British divisions, particularly the Royal Marines, are now well-accustomed to jungle warfare, and strong combat bonuses from experience and leadership buoy our forces to repel the attacks. Below, the 5th, 11th, 13th, and 14th Royal Marines successfully hold their ground at Con Cuong.



Despite these successes, the Japanese, bolstered by reinforcements, have deployed into a defensive posture centred on the Ma River. A few attempted river-crossings against fortified Japanese positions suffer heavy casualties: the Japanese, too, have gained experience at jungle warfare, and spring effective ambushes on our attacking divisons. By 21 February 1943, the Royal Marines stall around Qui Chau. We are severely hamstrung by the lack of an airfield in close proximity. While Japanese bombers can strike with ease out of Hanoi, RAF planes flying out of southern Indochina are simply out of range. With each side digging in along the river, the front lines do not really move at all through until April 1943.



Resurging Japanese Carrier Groups

The news has not been particularly positive at sea, either. On 9 February, while returning from reconnaissance at Nagasaki, Cunningham’s task group spots a well-defended Japanese carrier fleet with transports in tow off the coast of Hainan. Despite the unfavourable odds, Cunningham moves to engage. After a predictably bloody fight, Cunningham is forced to withdraw. No losses on either side, but the Japanese definitely got the better of us.



3 Surface Group, sortied into the northern bay to deliver shore bombardment to support the army, encounters another carrier group on 27 February. This time, our fleet does emerge successful, sinking the cruiser Tsugaru and forcing the Japanese to pull back to Haikou port for repairs.



Early morning of 4 March, another carrier fleet appears and attacks 3 Surface Group. It seems that we still have not learned the lessons from the early engagements with Japanese carrier groups: the Japanese are still the masters of naval aviation. Our fleet suffers a pretty brutal beating over the course of five hours. 3 Surface Group withdraws and limps back to port.



We now at least have a sense that the Japanese carriers are operating in-and-out of the port of Haikou on the northern coast of Hainan. Presuming that the enemy carriers have all returned to Haikou to repair and resupply, 1 Carrier Group slinks into the northern bay on 6 March and launches heavy air attacks against the port. As we suspected, several carriers were caught in port and are struck by our air groups – the carrier Zuhio in particular suffers heavy damage and will probably be knocked out of the war for a long time.



“Allied” Operations

The American invasions have progressed well. By late February, Taiwan is conquered completely, and the landings near Nagasaki have moved inward, occupying the island of Kyushu entirely with some smaller footholds on Shikoku and Honshu.



Again, we have no clear sense of what’s happening on the island. Judging from the front line, however, the Americans may be in trouble. Towards the end of March, they lose their footholds and are pushed back onto Kyushu.

The following image shows the overview of the Pacific theatre at the end of March 1943.



In eastern Europe, the Soviets continue their steady march west, recovering much of their Nazi-occupied territory.



New Deployments

Back home, two new light cruisers have been commissioned, Dido and Bonaventure. Once they’re up to strength, they’ll probably be sent to the far east to reinforce carrier groups that have sustained losses against the Japanese.



That's it for February and March 1943.

With 2nd Army Group's advance into China reverting into a defensive posture south of Hanoi, and the American invasion out of Kyushu seemingly stalling as well, there is possibly an opportunity here to pull some units out of Indochina and conduct an invasion of Honshu - in essence, an Operation Coronet to the American's Operation Olympic.




Of course, any forces we could dedicate to this operation would not even come close to mirroring those proposed for the invasion at Tokyo in 1946. But, working on the presumption that most if not all Japanese divisions on the home islands will be preoccupied with repelling the American invasion at Kyushu, a surprise landing and rapid encirclement/capture of Tokyo could deliver a decapitating blow sufficient to force the Japanese to surrender before any serious resistance can be brought to bear. Leaving 3rd Army on defence at the Red River Delta, 1st Special Operations Army can be redeployed down to the port of Qui Nhon, from which transports can just barely reach Tokyo. 1st and 2nd Royal Marine Corps, with five divisions each, might be suitable for an initial landing somewhere on the eastern coast of Honshu, with 2nd Airborne Corps available as an afloat reserve.

April has been pretty uneventful so far. Invasion forces could probably be ready to depart Qui Nhon by the middle of May....

Umm...with the japanese carrier groups still roaming about, I wouldn't risk an invasion of the homeland.

You could, however, try to capture as many ports as possible to cut off any safe haven for the groups.
I'd start with a landing near Hanoi to break up the stalemate and draw away enemy units and then hop on to the next harbor.



P.S: Great to see you continuing this!

Great to see somebody's still around to read it

Good point on the Japanese carrier groups. My impression is that heavy US presence around Kyushu and the East China Sea has actually displaced them away from the home islands and down to South China Sea and Gulf of Tonkin in particular. The task group that visited Nagasaki had clear sailing up past Taiwan Formosa, all the way to Japan. As soon as it closed near Hainan, the enemy carriers showed up. So, most of the enemy carriers for now seem to be stationed in and around Tonkin, with at least a few of them now laid up for repairs after the bombing at Haikou.

Exercising absolute sea control isn't remotely realistic with the few fleets I have available, but protecting a group of transports might be feasible. I have land-based bombers that can provide cover until they reach the open sea, and from there on it should be a cakewalk. Of course it's a pretty big gamble - absolute worst case is that the transports are bushwhacked at sea and I lose two corps worth of marines. Best case is the marines get ashore - and that could mean winning the war within a few weeks.