I doubt a new release would encourage people to move from FS* simply because FS has a much wider array of *good* 3rd party addons; X-Plane doesn't quite have it the same way, and FS people would have invested quite a bit of time and money into that goodness. Casual players would be an easier target.
Well, that's a matter of timing. Laminar needs to get this game shipped out within this year, before MS flight gets more ramped up. If they delay it more than that, they'll just be playing catch-up. Right now, the only competition is FSX, which runs like a dog on all but the most expensive systems. Assuming they can get X-plane optimized for modern hardware, they should be able to compete.
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