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#3041357 - 06/28/10 01:43 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Master]
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Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 10,952
Jeevz
Duke of URL
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Duke of URL
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Posts: 10,952
Clermont, FL
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I do not think it will ever happen the way it is described. Same here.
Commence to Jigglin'
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#3041375 - 06/28/10 02:06 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: LeemzHQ]
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Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 10,984
Master
meh
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meh
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That whole scenario is bunk. It wont happen like that. The competition does not have to match poor sales strategies to survive. Many games do not charge for their DLC or they charge significantly cheaper than 15 bucks for 4 maps. Those game companies have not been eaten up. A person does not just play one game forever. There are always ways to gain profit even with the most dedicated players.
Of those current CoD players how many of them bought the game at full price? How many stuck with the game longer than a month?
Those sale figures and player statistics lie. It does not work the way they are making it seem. You might also consider how many of the people who bought the map pack bought it with their dollars or with MS points earned from parents etc.
I dont know if you have read up on it but this situation is pretty much the same as with free MMOs where they have micro transactions. Noone is going to pay 100 dollars for a game to play online. Most do not even pay the 60-70 since they buy it used or get it from a friend. If the initial price is too high you loose most of your sales.
Anyone who thinks that this sales strategy will work is deceiving themselves. They are setting themselves up to fail. I believe that this will try to happen though but it wont be successful or at least not to the way that is being described.
When M$ came out with Live and charged 5 bucks a month everyone predicted that all games would go that route. It have been x number of years and while MS remains successful noone else has managed to follow suit successfully. It will be the same here. CoD might turn into a MMO but other similar games wont find the success by doing the same because they do not have as many loyal customers.
Last edited by Master; 06/28/10 02:08 PM.
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#3041410 - 06/28/10 02:39 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: LeemzHQ]
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 9,522
Wklink
Permanent Latrine Orderly
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Olympia, Washington
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I'm not sure if you guys fully read what I wrote.
I'll site the CoD example again. According to this analyst, there are about 12 MILLION users right now playing MW2 (think about that number for a minute). If only 2 MILLION of them are willing to pay (meaning a whopping 83% say "screw you, Activision, I'm not giving you a penny more!") then Activision stands to make $360 MILLION dollars off just those 2 million players. Now, imagine you're Activision's competition. How can you compete against them if you DON'T start charging for MP? You can not let your competition out-earn you by such a large margin. They'll eat you up and spit you out. The competition will HAVE to start charging to stay competitive. Now, imagine if 50% of that 12 million are willing to pay (and I think it'll be higher than that).
We all complained that that the map packs were over-priced at $15. But, they sold 6 MILLION of them (50% of the user base bought them). That's $90 million! You think Activision cares that the other 50% said "Screw you!"? Nope. They only care that they made $90 million.
Bottom line: Activision could "lose" 80%+ of its user base and STILL make buckets loads MORE money.
Anyone that thinks this isn't going to happen is nothing more than a naive wishful thinker. Publishers have been thinking about it for about 3 years now. They've been working on how to implement it. The analyst thinks that by fall of 2011 they'll have the business model figured out and be ready to flip the switch.
As for only playing the SP portions of games? Good luck. Many games only give you about 4-6 hours of gameplay in the SP component. Is that really worth $60? Not to me. If there were no MP component to CoD4, CoD:MW2 or BF:BC2 I'd feel monumentally ripped-off for the amount of gameplay I got out of the SP portion of those games. The extra hours I've spent in the MP component of those games are measured in DAYS not hours.
You can whistle past the graveyard all you want, folks. But, I agree with this guy. It's going to happen. If not by 2011 then at some point soon thereafter. Yes but how many COD games are there out there? Sure they can make a bundle off of this concept but it is a self limiting system. The consumer isn't an endless flow of money. Eventually he or she will have to start choosing what game he or she will want to play. Instead of having eight or ten games on the shelf he or she will only have five. Activision may see a serious output for this game but may see a drastic dropoff in other titles simple because the consumer simply cannot afford (especially in this economy) to double their cash outlay on EVERY single game out there. What I fear is that the less than super hot selling games, the ones that make money but not hand over fist cash, will end up being thrown even more to the wayside by the larger developmental houses. We saw it with simulations in the late 90's and early 2000s and you will see it increasingly with other game genre's. What you will see a company focus on one or two main games to bring in large amounts of cash at the expense of other, less profitable titles. EA stands to make a bundle with Madden and Tiger Woods but plan on seeing other games, like NCAA and possibly even the NBA franchise becoming increasingly marginalized as the company bigwigs divert more and more resources into managing their online empires. They can't do this with every game. Companies are going to have to be damned sure that whatever game they release requiring a 50 buck a year online contract is up to the quality that gamers want. Game players will become more selective simply because they cannot afford to pay that much for every game. That means content will have to be better or buyers will balk at future titles.
The artist formerly known as SimHq Tom Cofield
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#3041424 - 06/28/10 02:52 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Wklink]
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Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 885
Desode
Ps3 & 360 GT : DESODE
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Ps3 & 360 GT : DESODE
Member
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 885
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Lets not forget that at launch COD MW2 had 250 Million in the game before they made any money.
Thats Development and Marketing and the whole thing.
You may say they don't give a crap about taking a hit if they are still making money, but
they have share holders to consider.
Trust me I owned a few shares in Sony, and You can't expect your share holders to watch their stock drop in value, especially not in todays market.
They will sell and that will hurt Activision even more.
If the next COD loses 15% of its sales compared to the previous COD, the Share holders will freak out and Activision will have people selling their stock.
In todays market no company that is Public will risk scaring their share holders like that.
You may say , But they will still be making this much money !
When your on the exchange, it don't matter if your company is still making money.
If your premium product takes a 15-20% dive, Investors freak out and when they sell your company stock, your stock value drops even more.
Thats just business.
Desode
Last edited by Desode; 06/28/10 02:54 PM.
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#3041463 - 06/28/10 03:36 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: LeemzHQ]
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 658
slash9107
360 Gamertag: slash9107
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360 Gamertag: slash9107
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Rhode Island, USA
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Leemz, I read the same article and there are assumptions being made by Pachter. The question isn't only are there people willing to pay $110 to play MW2, etc. online but are they actually able to. The economic crash has changed the way people spend for at least a long period of time if not forever. Gaming is hardly a necessity and the price of gaming needs to make sense for people to jump on board.
Also, the numbers aren't as black and white as he suggests they are. The reason why games like MW2 explode is because of hype, word of mouth, etc. Look at what happens here on SimHQ. Every time a new game is about to release someone adds a post asking who is going to buy the game. When a lot of people seem to be interested, it actually starts convincing others to get the game even if it wasn't on their radar to start. And the opposite is also true. If there isn't any interest, then people start to question wether they will buy the game at all.
MP is about playing with friends and when those friends aren't playing, then the interest is gone. Its a tough sell to get people to pay $110 to have to play with the little #%&*$# who spew junk the whole game.
One final thing, Pachter also uses an extereme example of a MW2 or Halo to make his point. Conveniently those are 2 of the largest franchises going right now. What if the example is like a Forza, Fifa, etc. Games that are considered to be successful in terms of sales, but do not reach half of the numbers of a MW2. Will they still consider this to be a smart model?
I think the fact that they have been considering it for some time now tells the story. Its not just about finding the right business model, but being very careful not to destroy their gravy train. Gaming is at an all time high with gaming channels on TV, countless websites, groups, clans, etc. I think they are well aware that a move like this could be the beginning of the end for future gaming.
Nice hat, looks good on you though.
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#3041477 - 06/28/10 03:57 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: slash9107]
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 658
slash9107
360 Gamertag: slash9107
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360 Gamertag: slash9107
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BTW I also took issue with Pachter saying "I don't know why people feel like they are entitled to getting stuff for free". Since when is gaming free you moron??? I had to pay $300 for my console, $90 for my adapter, $50 for my yearly subscription, and $25-$60 for every game I play not to mention the money I have dumped into dlc and MS arcade. Now, I did this willingly and have enjoyed gaming like never before and will continue to spend by choice. I also realize that these numbers may be small potatoes for the developers when they are talking millions but it means plenty to me. Aslo I am well aware of the fact that these companies are in it to make money. I also have no problem with that. My problem is when they start to get greedy. I haven't gottn anything for free Mr. Pachter so I, like many others, do not feel entitled to anything you ass!! 
Nice hat, looks good on you though.
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#3041489 - 06/28/10 04:14 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: slash9107]
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 19,581
Raw Kryptonite
Beat the Kobayashi Maru
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Beat the Kobayashi Maru
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MS
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What's free? We pay $50-60 to play the game.
You also have to take into consideration that much of this "dlc" isn't "dlc". It's withheld content that's already in the game, you just can't access it. There's a difference between creating, selling and distributing *actual* new game material after a game releases and just staggering content release already in the buyer's home on the disc. Essentially it's a a huge sales price for a game, designed to dupe the customer and grab all the cash they can with the least amount of work.
I agree, COD and Halo are two games that shouldn't really be quoted in these strategies. They were well done for what they are, but it's almost a fluke that they do so well. Also, with the changes at Activision, I doubt the upcoming COD relesase and the one after that do well. Halo seems to be like a sitcom that's no longer funny but they refuse to take it off the air---but it's still a huge money maker, just not like it was at it's height with Halo 2.
I find it hard to believe that any good business strategy in this industry would involve shrinking your customer base. Walmart kills the specialty shops due to VOLUME and pricing, not by selling a limited range of speicial items at high cost. Little shops like that close every day, but Walmart continues to grow.
...and for every COD and Halo, there are 100 games that have them, or their customer base, in their sights. If they get too aggressive with a scheme like this, a lot of other games can capitalize on it by courting the buyers instead of milking them.
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#3041633 - 06/28/10 06:43 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Raw Kryptonite]
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,462
AggressorBLUE
Check out my
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Check out my
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Jerz
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This will probably be pretty successful, and theres a few ways to spin it from a marketing standpoint:
$50 a year is a lot of money. $5 a month however, isn't. Throw in free map packs and upgrades, and people will start to warm up to the idea. Plus it's not like companies charging $15 a month for an MMO are unreasonable. It cost money to keep servers going. This model might also lower the initial cost of the game. If I'm only charged $40 for Fora 4 initially, but get 2 years of playing out it at $5 a month, with at least one car pack each month included for free, that's a good deal as far as I see it, and Turn10 deserves that money. T10 gets more money, I get more value. Everyone wins.
The big fallout here will be dedicated server support dieing off. The same issue will happen here as it did with paid DLC killing off mods. Why let ppl do for free what you can charge them for?
What will be most interesting is what MS does with the pricing of it's LIVE service. People don't much care for the idea of paying for the privilege to pay more money. The oppertunity here is to their pricing based on membership. Silver members pay $5, while gold members pay $2 a month, as an example.
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#3041657 - 06/28/10 07:09 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: AggressorBLUE]
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Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 905
Snake_Pliskinn
Member
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Member
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 905
Enterprise, AL
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For as much coin as is discussed for these various models, whoever does charge for these service had better figure out a way to keep hackers at bay. Its tolerable (barely) to put up with these pinheads when its free. If its costing me money the tolerance is very very close to zero.
NOTE: This is oriented toward the PC side of things. I understand hacking is not nearly the problem on consoles, or so I've bee led to believe.
Last edited by Snake_Pliskinn; 06/28/10 07:46 PM.
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#3041834 - 06/28/10 11:24 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Snake_Pliskinn]
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Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 5,186
LeemzHQ
360 Gamertag = Leemz
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360 Gamertag = Leemz
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I wouldn't count on the price of games going down, that's for damn sure. I don't think you're going to see Activision releasing $40 versions of CoD when/if they start charging extra for MP. No friggin way. What would be the point?
And there's also talk that MS could be looking to up the subscription price for XBL in a year or so.
The price of the actual games themselves have gone up very little since I started gaming over 20 years ago. Most PC titles back then were $40. Now they're $50. Some might even be $60 but that's the exception, not the rule. For as long as I've owned a console (7-8 years) games have been $60. Very few consumer products hold a pricepoint for that long. In the meantime, companies like 3DO, Midway, Acclaim and Interplay have all gone under while others like Eidos and even Atari are hanging on by the skin of their teeth.
As for what Pachter is calling "free", he's talking about the online play. Let's face it, it wasn't that long ago when having a MP component to a game was quite the exception, not the rule that it is today. Very few games survive these days without a MP component. If they don't have one, then they have a game with a vast single player storyline that'll give gamers 40-60 hours of gameplay or even into the hundreds of hours. Years ago, developers didn't go out of their way to make much of a MP component. Now, it's pretty much required in addition to having a compelling SP portion as well. You gotta figure that it's costing developers a lot more to make games these days than it did years ago.
slash, you're right that CoD and Halo are the exceptions. They're the giants of the online community but the other games can't sit idley by and watch those games rake in gobs of cash and do nothing themselves. They'll do something. Maybe they won't be able to charge what CoD and Halo charge but you gotta figure they'll respond with some sort of fee.
I just think it's inevitable.
"All religion, my friend, is simply evolved out of fraud, fear, greed, imagination, and poetry."
Edgar Allan Poe
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#3041846 - 06/28/10 11:55 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: LeemzHQ]
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,945
Nimits
Hotshot
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Video should probably be 50% more expensive, on average, than they are today. Consider that most games cost less than dinner and a movie with a wife/girlfriend (ALOT less in some cases). Prices should have gone up a while ago, and things like charging for DLC or extra online access overal brings the pricing back in line with the rest of the economy.
That said, I find it personally unlikely that Activision would start charging the full price of the game over again to get the online access, simply because I think the sticker shock would deter alot of players. A more likely scenario, if paid online is implemented at all, would be a smaller fee ($5-$15). Even then, that approach would probably deter me personally from much online gaming.
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#3041855 - 06/29/10 12:16 AM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Nimits]
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 19,581
Raw Kryptonite
Beat the Kobayashi Maru
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Beat the Kobayashi Maru
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MS
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Game makers got full of themselves and thought they could do no wrong back in the early 80's. They were wrong. Gaming dropped off for many years as mainstream entertainment. Whether it's quality dropping or having enough content to justify the expense, these guys need to know they aren't untouchable. A lot of these guys went out of business over the last couple years, they need to be sure they keep the market happy, not tick it off getting greedy trying to force consumers' hands for money.
Prices *should* be dropping, since regardless of value, there is a limit to what people see a product worth, just by it's nature. Also, development is faster and easier than when these current consoles came out and distribution is much higher than ever before. There's that Walmart comparison again. If Walmart started charging specialty store prices, they'd die off too.
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#3041969 - 06/29/10 03:28 AM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Raw Kryptonite]
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 3,831
Chunx
Senior Member
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Senior Member
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 3,831
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All this kind of ties in with what we heard from developers at E3 2009. They wanted games with more 'legs' - that is, games that stay on people's hard drives longer than is current in PC or console. They wanted to make games so deep and so good that they were around a long time, like Falcon 4, Grand Prix Legends type of long. Years.
That sounded good to us at the time - make a console game with scalability, challenge, depth, etc.
Now I see part of the plan may be to milk a great game for every penny, buy charging to use it's MP mode.
Tom C is right - people will have to become much, much more choosey about what they decide to play online. And if they like it, they won't be as quick to drop a title they paid a year-long fee for to pay more for the next title. That'll slow the process down, and give developers more breathing room between titles.
That means less money invested in game development (per year), and one game earning 'residuals' through MP fees well past the peak of it's sales on store shelves.
Of course, all that gambles on the creation of a title that really hits a home run. And it is based on consumer habits formed from years of FREE online MP (XBL and iRacing excluded). But this business model also will change the habit of consumers, and in so doing may not have quite the yield some are hoping for. Competition between game devs will become intense. For some games, it may backfire. Oh heck, it WILL backfire for a lot of titles. But for whoever makes the next 'MW2', it'll mean huge profits for that company, possibly for several years. That's more than enough time to craft the next big game.
Chunx
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#3042012 - 06/29/10 05:02 AM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Nimits]
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Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 5,186
LeemzHQ
360 Gamertag = Leemz
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360 Gamertag = Leemz
Hotshot
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Massachusetts
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Video should probably be 50% more expensive, on average, than they are today. Consider that most games cost less than dinner and a movie with a wife/girlfriend (ALOT less in some cases). Prices should have gone up a while ago, and things like charging for DLC or extra online access overal brings the pricing back in line with the rest of the economy.
That said, I find it personally unlikely that Activision would start charging the full price of the game over again to get the online access, simply because I think the sticker shock would deter alot of players. A more likely scenario, if paid online is implemented at all, would be a smaller fee ($5-$15). Even then, that approach would probably deter me personally from much online gaming. In fact, the figure that was quoted in OXM was $15 p/MONTH for online play for a game like CoD, not just another $50 p/year.
"All religion, my friend, is simply evolved out of fraud, fear, greed, imagination, and poetry."
Edgar Allan Poe
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#3042736 - 06/29/10 11:19 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: LeemzHQ]
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 1,225
Clownloachlover
Member
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Member
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 1,225
Indiana
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In fact, the figure that was quoted in OXM was $15 p/MONTH for online play for a game like CoD, not just another $50 p/year.
For that I'll just go back to WoW.
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#3042813 - 06/30/10 02:09 AM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Clownloachlover]
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 19,581
Raw Kryptonite
Beat the Kobayashi Maru
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MS
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There has been talk of a COD MMO in the works. That would make more sense. Or they could just be talking about a persistent war they pass off as an MMO to get the $$$.
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#3042867 - 06/30/10 03:47 AM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: mapinduzi]
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Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 5,562
Airdrop01
Chief Pheasant Controller
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Relax. Free markets are a wonderful thing. Plus, MS is in the driver's seat, as aggressorblue points out...
They have an interest and are the gatekeeper to what is and isn't allowed on their service they sell, and no matter what you think of MS, they are not stupid.
"For I know the plans that I have for you," declares the Lord, "plans for welfare and not for calamity to give you a future and a hope." Jeremiah 29:11
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#3043123 - 06/30/10 03:19 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: Airdrop01]
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Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 17,632
SkateZilla
Skate Zilla Graphics
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Skate Zilla Graphics
Veteran
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Posts: 17,632
Virginia Beach, VA
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MS already Poll'd the Beta Testers For Xbox Live Prior to E3,
98% Said they would cancel their subsciption if it went up to $59.99/Year.
100% Said they would cancel their subsciption if it required a Network fee (XBL) and a Publisher Fee/License Per Game to Play Online (EA, etc).
In the case of MMO's having extra Fees, its a different type of game. so EA believing because die hard MMO players pay upwards $17/month to play, will also pay $15/month Per game, lol the answer is NO.
And Most MMOs you only Pay the MMO Fee.
You Dont Pay a network Fee+Publisher Fee.
My brother and I both pay $20+/Month for Playonline/Final Fantasy XI, while I dont play every waking moment like he does, its well worth the money.
Im not going to pay $15/month per title to play a game that will only get 8 months support before the next Iteration is published (ie sports games, games that get constant productions released (CoD Series).
Thats Just CRAZY, so to play all my games online I'd be shelling out over $300/Month, just for shooters, for Features that are Part of a Service I Already Pay $50/year for. and the Publishers get paid by M.S. for using those features.
Thats Like Charging Me $50/Month for Free Unlimited Minutes, But Charging me $15/Month per Phone number to call someone. Stupidity.
MS is already reviewing this behind closed doors, Like I said, the Beta Testers for XBL Knew about the proposal from Publishers Prior to E3. and it did NOT go well.
Last edited by SkateZilla; 06/30/10 03:28 PM.
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#3043202 - 06/30/10 05:19 PM
Re: RIP Free MultiPlayer
[Re: SkateZilla]
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Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 5,186
LeemzHQ
360 Gamertag = Leemz
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360 Gamertag = Leemz
Hotshot
Joined: Nov 2004
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Massachusetts
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Well, to be honest, I don't think the 98% of people that said they wouldn't pay extra actually wouldn't pay extra. I mean, hell, the same thing happened with cable TV years ago. Everyone said they wouldn't pay. Now, look where we are.
There's no way in hell I believe that 98% of XBL subscibers will permanently cancel their membership if MS raises the fee by $10 p/year. No friggin way in hell. 90% of that 98% are LYING. And that might be a conservative estimate.
Face it, we're all pretty much hooked. We're all a bit too heavily invested in gaming to abandon online play over a measly $10 p/year increase.
Ask yourself this:
In the last 10 years, how many things in your life have you given up completely because the price has gone up? Cable TV is a great example. My bill is about $180 p/month. When I first got cable TV back in the 80's it was $10 p/month! 10 years ago it was half what it costs now. What about food? I'm talking snacks, candy, treats, etc. not "must-have" foods like bread and milk. How many of us have given up snacks because they've gone up in price? I already know the answer, NOT VERY MANY OF US. How many of us don't go to the movies anymore? How many of us don't ever go out to eat anymore? What about the price of concerts? The cost of going to a concert these days is ridiculous. What about sports? Every year ticket prices go up and every year there are new attendance records set. Sure, some people stop going. Can't afford it. But, there are always people to take their place.
It's easy to "say" you won't pay extra. But, my guess is that MOST of us will, when push comes to shove.
I'm not afraid to admit that if XBL goes up $10 p/year that I'll be willing to pay it. I won't like it, but I'll do it. My guess is that the VAST MAJORITY of those who currently subscribe will continue to subscribe. We won't like it, but we'll do it.
Last edited by LeemzHQ; 06/30/10 07:43 PM.
"All religion, my friend, is simply evolved out of fraud, fear, greed, imagination, and poetry."
Edgar Allan Poe
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Exodus
by RedOneAlpha. 04/18/24 05:46 PM
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