It is rumored that Nvidia's Fermi (G300) A2 silicon has taped out. That calculates to availability in February 2010.

However, it is rumored that the moles inside Nvidia say that an A3 version will be needed and Nvidia is telling its main board makers to expect April-May launch in quantity. I presume the delay is that they have to get a version running faster than HD5870 as well as be bug free.

So, the G300 is turning out to be like the ATI HD2xxx -- very very late. Remember, ATI was almost a year late with that one.

Late next year, ATI will be coming out with its brand new architecture that is one step ahead of G300 (G300 tech competes with HD58xx tech). Of course, it may be delayed a half year or more too.

Fermi A2 Rumors

Of course, it may not all be Nvidia. TSMC is having 40nm process problems affecting both Nvidia and ATI.

I really appreciate you keeping us updated on the GFX Wars. For my personal case however, I can only say that I'm so disappointed with Nvidia's strategy that short of a major ATI problem with some games, I'm totally over for the next generations.

If they really need till March to get product to the market, then they have truly shot themself in the foot by pulling back the whole 2x Power Series.

Rumour I heard is they are turning the 2xx chips into some cheap DX11 chips (can that be possible?) as low-end 300 items. Or they might release a low-end 300 around christmas being rebranded 200 chips.

lol..even MORE re-branding??? They sure know how to confuse people into buying their stuff

Eh..."confuse", "trick" -- tomato, tomoto

I think there must be some 8-Series chips somewhere who've been rebranded 9-Series, 200-Series and will now end up as bottom line 300 Series

8800 -> 9600GSO + 9800GTX + 9800GTX+ (actually, the whole 9xxx series was a tweaked and rebranded version of the 8xxx, though those three weren't even tweaked) -> GTS 250.

Now rumored that Fermi will be "announced" in December and shipped in quantity in January. Rumored that A3 "samples" are in hand at Nvidia.

Thing is, this seems like one of those cases where people say "next month" as the months go by. So, we'll see if this rumor turns out to be true -- as a different source pointed at April-May for quantities.

December January Rumor

For a HD5870 or Nivida upgrade, I think you are right that April/May would be the earliest "best buy" season, when there's volume in the stores and prices in competition.

Going with a half as expensive 4890 (compared to 5870) for now likely means swapping that one in six months does not cost such a lot more money when by then the Fermi and 5870 prices are falling.