Well, a couple of things to hash out here. I tested the 3-second separation approach last night and it didn't produce any better results. I got a lot of Fokkers or fails, so it's not bullet proof. Perhaps what we need to try next is to change the steps. Currently, it's:
Timer 1: 25 percent
Timer 2: 25 percent
Timer 3: 25 percent
Timer 4: 100 percent
But perhaps it could be:
Timer 1: 50 percent
Timer 2: 50 percent
Timer 3: 50 percent
Timer 4:100 percent
or increasing:
Timer 1: 25 percent
Timer 2: 50 percent
Timer 3: 75 percent
Timer 4:100 percent
I'm not well versed on statistics (rather probability), so I'm looking for the best way to produce (as close as possible to) an equal chance (like a 4-sided dice) for each step to occur. Any ideas?
I like Laser's suggestion of cascading pairs at 50 percent too. Is that a better approach?
Edit: It's clear now that the 25 percent/timer stepping isn't what I intended. Even at 50 percent/timer stepping, at 2 rolls, the probability of an encounter is already at 25%. Although that doesn't necessarily mean that 25 percent stepping isn't useful.
Edited by Gustang (08/05/09 07:21 AM)